After dropping the last two games on their most recent Central division road swing, the Western Conference playoff race is suddenly back nipping at the Canucks’ heels. With just a three point lead on the 9th place Jets, the chasing teams are getting a bit too close for comfort.

But just how in danger are the Canucks? Is there still a realistic chance they miss the playoffs? If so, what is it? Join us after the jump to find out.

With just over a week left in the NHL regular season, there are essentially three playoff spots conceivably up for grabs in the Western Conference: second place in the Pacific, third place in the Pacific, and the Pacific division wild card spot (related: the Pacific division is kind of terrible this season). There are four teams that are still realistically in the playoff hunt for these three spots: Vancouver, Los Angeles, Calgary, and Winnipeg. Given that they’re currently occupying second place in the Pacific, all three of these teams will need to pass Vancouver over the next week in order for the Canucks to miss the playoffs.

Vancouver currently has 95 points on the year, with games against Los Angeles, the tanking Arizona Coyotes, and the sad-sack Edmonton Oilers remaining. The Winnipeg Jets cannot win a tiebreaker with Vancouver, as they cannot catch Vancouver’s regulation or overtime win (ROW) total. This means that in order for Vancovuer to miss the playoffs, Winnipeg must finish with more points than the Canucks.

However, both Los Angeles and Calgary can match Vancouver’s ROW total, and both teams also will hold the second tiebreaker over the Canucks, regardless of results for the rest of this season as both clubs have won their season series with Vancouver. Calgary picked up 5 points to Vancouver’s 4, and Los Angeles can finish no worse than 3-2-0 against Vancouver. This means that both teams only have to match Vancouver’s point total and regulation win total to pass the Canucks in the standings. However, the Kings matching Vancouver’s ROW total will likely see them passing the Canucks in the standings anyways, as they are 3 ROWs behind (though this may also eliminate Calgary and clinch Vancouver a playoff spot, as we’ll see in a bit).

In summary, Vancouver will miss the playoffs if the following three conditions are met:

The Canucks drop their final three games, all in regulation. In order to make the playoffs, the three chasing teams all need a minimum of the following records in order to bump Vancouver:

Vancovuer loses all three of their final games, but take one to overtime. The following must occur for the Canucks to make the playoffs:

If the two points come from a regulation or overtime win, the Kings can, at best, match the Canucks ROW total, meaning that they’ll have to pass the Canucks on points if they go to a single shootout in their final four games.

If all three points are from overtime losses or a shootout win, the Kings can tie the Canucks and pass them in the standings. If Vancouver wins one in regulation or overtime, Los Angeles must finish with more points.

If the Kings beat the Flames in regulation on April 9th, Vancouver will also make the playoffs. Similarly, a regulation win for the Canucks tonight means that they just need one point to make the playoffs as Los Angeles would need to win out to pass them and not lose the tiebreaker. This means beating the Flames in overtime, and necessitating the Flames beating the Jets in overtime, and the Jets winning their next three games.

Long in short, it would be extremely difficult for the Canucks to miss the playoffs at this juncture, as any modicum of success against the Pacific’s bottom feeders will leave the three teams chasing them with absolutely no margin for error, and a couple of very specific scenarios playing out. If Vancouver takes care of their own business against Arizona and Edmonton like they should, they will return to the playoffs in 2015.