Entering the All-Star Break, the Vancouver Canucks are essentially a .500 hockey team. Sounds sub-optimal, until you look at the rest of the Pacific Division and realize the Canucks are just two points removed from a playoff spot.

Against daunting odds, this franchise has insisted that they aim to compete for a playoff spot, year in and year out. Playoff revenue is often cited as the driving force in this most Sysephian of tasks, but the Canucks have also stated their desire to groom the next generation of prospects in a winning environment. I’ve no respect for the former and all the admiration in the world for the latter, but that’s another topic for another day.

In the meantime, I took the Canucks Army writers to task on the topic, asking how confident they were of the Canucks playoff chances.

Make net size larger.

I won’t lie to you: not very confident. The team could potentially get better once broken Sedin is healthy for the remainder of the season, and the addition of Brandon Sutter back into the lineup has the potential to do good, as well. There’s also the risk that re-adding Sutter could make the team worse, though – he was producing well above his normal rates to start out the year – and I’m still convinced that Ryan Miller’s age makes him a likely candidate for high late-season reversion. He’s played well of late, to his credit, but you can’t bank your season on a $6M AAV starter over the age of 35 performing at a playoff level for the rest of the year. The Ducks are starting to heat up, creating competition for the Coyotes, Sharks, and Kings – the three teams that have seemed most likely to find themselves in a playoff spot through the first half of the year.

The Canucks are still sitting as high as they are due to an obscene number of loser point games, not wins. That just doesn’t bode well for seeing the post-season, although the way that some of the young players have performed suggests that next year could be a little bit brighter from the onset.

Define confident?

I am confident that they ultimately won’t make it. Which isn’t a bad thing in the slightest. GM Jim Benning was on the Sportsnet broadcast of CHL/NHL Top Prospects game yesterday and said that there is a drop off after the top 15. Through my own research and watching, I can agree that is the range of the drop. So in order for the Canucks to ensure they get one of those Top 15 spots, they ultimately would have to miss the playoffs.

Once again, this isn’t a bad thing. In the grand scope, that may be the best thing to happen to the Canucks, as next year, with more young players pushing themselves onto the roster and cap space to plug the holes – they can easily rebound and challenge for a playoff spot, rather than just barely squeaking in.

I’m really not confident of anything when it comes to the Canucks right now. Any variation of statistical models that you’ll see right now will tell you the Canucks are headed to the basement. Of course, they were supposed to be there all season, according to the same factors. The eye test won’t give you any better of an indication. The Canucks look vastly outmatched more often than not, and have normally scraped by on hot goaltending and timely scoring.

But who’s to say that that won’t continue? Statisticians, of course, harping about regression. But though regression is a statistical certainty over a long enough time period, no one can tell you when it will hit. Every year a below average team rides the percentages right into the playoffs. The general ineptitude of the Pacific Division would certainly help in this regard.

It also adds an interesting wrinkle. As of the All-Star break, the third place Pacific Division team sits in 19th in the league standings, while the next closest divisional rivals are in the 20’s. It seems quite likely that the Canucks could chase a playoff spot right down to the last couple games of the season, and even if they get eliminated on the final day, still end up with a top 10 pick. And let’s not forget about those three lotteries. Hell, even if they do make the playoffs somehow, it’s bound to be in the 16th spot, giving them a 15th overall pick, right before Benning’s predicted drop off.

I’m not confident at all. While their record has been relatively not awful, the Canucks’ shot numbers have been dreadful, which would suggest that their recent success is a mirage more than anything else.
Those who are cheering for the tank job are going to have plenty to like over the coming months.