In the first post on this topic, we looked at the issues the Canucks may encounter with their goaltending depth this offseason.  This is not an uncommon issue when you can only have 2 players in one position in the NHL and any other talent you may have who is NHL caliber typically is traded as they do not want to sit in the minors.

In this post, we’ll follow up on the emptiness in the goaltending prospect pipeline the Canucks are facing, and try to identify players the Canucks could target for both credible AHL depth and perhaps future NHL assets too.

We know about the difficulty of trying to draft goaltenders.  Traditional scouting has proven wildly inaccurate at best, and successful goaltenders are cast by the wayside even at the NHL level – look no further than Devan Dubnyk.  Early draft picks on goaltenders rarely work out as expected, and should only be used for absolute can’t-miss top ranked goaltenders (which are rare).

If you do not draft goaltenders, then the best route is to sign them when they are free agents and a few years older.  Goaltenders typically take a few years to develop relative to their skater counterparts anyways since there are relatively few spots available for them to take. 

While Goaltenders are often considered voodoo within the analytics community, there are still a few rules to follow for predicting players with the best probability of success. Typically you want the goaltender who has been better statistically than his peers – to be in the NHL, you are one of the best in the world, this means you need to dominate in earlier leagues. 

You also need to take age into consideration.  I believe this has a slightly smaller effect for goaltenders as it does for players, but nonetheless it is much less impressive for a 25 year-old to dominate against 19 year-olds as it would for a 21 year-old.

A third factor to consider is size.  Size does play a role, especially in goaltenders.  It’s extremely rare that an NHL goalie is under 6 feet tall these days, however it does still happen. Tim Thomas had one of the most dominant seasons of any goaltender in the modern era, and he stood just 5’11.

When looking for goalies through the lens of analytics, you will want to look for players who have a track record of success, are young, and have physical tools like size.  You should also get a secondary opinion from your scouts as the two sides best work together in selecting players – but as we’ve seen from the draft, scouts alone don’t have a great record predicting goaltenders. 

Sample size is also another factor that you have to consider when analyzing goaltenders.  NHL goalies take a minimum of 3,000 shots against to know their true talent level.  In a single season, most goaltenders typically only face 1,000 shots, which makes it harder to determine if their performance is skill driven of variance driven.  The bigger the sample size of a goaltender, the more you can trust their results.

This is similar to the bet that the Toronto Maple Leafs have made by signing undersized OHL goaltender Justin Nichols to an ATO with the Toronto Marlies.  He has a history of success relative to his peers, but has been doing so in a lower tier league (relative to the NCAA or senior professional leagues). However, he also has a connection with AGM Kyle Dubas.

There’s been much excitement about Matt O’Connor as he is currently a UFA looking for a team.  He is taking part in a cross-Canada tour of each club and has met with Vancouver earlier this month (who always seem to be the bridesmaid and never the bride).  He finished 16th in the NCAA this year in save percentage after playing 35 games and facing over 1,000 shots. 

He’s 23 years old, a giant at 6’6” in height and appears to be a bit of a late bloomer.  He did not have impressive numbers in the OJHL or in the USHL and it was only the last two seasons where he has performed above average in the NCAA. 

The stats suggest he is alright and the scouts love his physical tools, so he’s not a bad bet for a free signing.  O’Connor reportedly has the Canucks on his short-list of teams to sign with, and has previously attended Canucks prospects camp.

Lyon is a potential free agent target that few people are talking about.  Lyon finished the NCAA as the top goaltenders in save percentage with a .939 in 32 games and 849 shots against.  He is a year behind O’Connor in school, currently finishing his sophomore year in the NCAA.  He also has a history of succeeding in various leagues in his career such as the USHL and the USHS. 

The biggest downside to him is his size, currently he is listed at 6’1” and that is probably the main reason he has been receiving little attention.  Scouts do have a fetish for larger goaltenders.

After his fantastic NCAA season, Lyon was named to the USA’s World Hockey Championships roster.

Hayton finished his freshman season with St. Lawrence University, finishing 3rd in the NCAA save percentage standings.  He finished the year with a .937 save percentage in 36 games and over 1,100 shots against.  Born in May 1994, he is two years younger than Lyon but is also below six feet tall, currently listed at 5’11. 

He has a track record of success in both USHS and the USHL.  Given that he only has 1 season of success in the NCAA, it is harder to be more confident in his talent level.  He would be a more risky bet than the other two, but for a free signing he is not the worst choice to make.

Hayton is likely to return to school this year though, so while he may be an interesting bet to make down the road, it seems unlikely he’ll catch on with an NHL team this summer.

Those three goaltenders are not the only good choices to take a bet on in the NCAA.  They were just three selected to make an example.  A similar approach can be taken in other leagues too such as in the major professional leagues in Europe.

Laurikainen is a Finish goaltender currently playing in the Finnish Liiga.  He is young at 22 years old, and is six feet tall.  He has a contract for another season in the Liiga but could be signed in a similar fashion as the Canucks signed Ronalds Kenins. 

Laurikainen finished his 21 year-old season as the 3rd best Finnish goaltender in 37 games posting a .933.  Success against senior players in a professional league is always a good indicator of future success, especially for a younger player.  Before this season, Laurikainen played two years in the WHL with Swift Current Broncos where he posted numbers nearly 2% above league average with a .922 in 60 games as a rookie and a .916 in 54 games the year after.

In the other Nordic country of Sweden, Joel Lassinantti could be an interesting bet for a free agent signing.  He is currently on contract for two more seasons and is a small goaltender at just 5’9 tall.

He finished his 21 year-old season as the second best goaltender in the SHL where he posted a .928 in 38 games.  He has good history of success in various leagues and is described as:

If Lassinantti can put together another very strong season in the SHL, he may be worth taking an extended look at.

Some other young goalies to keep an eye on include: