Back in November, I predicted that the Canucks were likely to make the playoffs. They started the year with a 16-7-1 record, which I felt at the time provided enough of a head start to enable them to make the playoffs by just being able to play better than .500 hockey for the rest of the season. Fast forward to today and the Canucks have gone 18-15-2 since December 1st, and the Canucks are very much in the thick of the playoff race in the West, sitting 2nd overall in the Pacific.

With a playoff berth looking more and more like a probability rather than a possibility, how should Jim Benning approach his first deadline as an NHL general manager? I’ll have a look after the jump.

The month of February in particular has been provided a ton of reason for optimism in Canucks nation. In the wake of key injuries to Alex Edler and Chris Tanev, we’ve seen Adam Clendening, Frank Corrado, and Alex Biega step up and hold their own reasonably well in big minutes. Bo Horvat seems to be getting better with every game, as is Shawn Matthias. Zack Kassian has played some of the best hockey in his career this month, which has endeared him to everyone who likes a good underdog story, and really, who doesn’t love a good underdog story? As of today, the Canucks are 8-5 in February, which is their best month since November. 

Between their prized rookie finding his game, redemption for the wayward warrior, unheralded prospects coming out of no where to contribute, and the team coming together to overcome adversity in the form of injuries, this month has had every good hockey narrative you can imagine. February has been a really fun month to be a Canucks fan. 

This all puts Jim Benning in a bit of a tough situation going into the deadline. There has to be a lot of temptation to make a move or two to give the Sedins and the rest of the core one last kick of at the cup, but the underlying metrics aren’t great for the Canucks. At 49.5%, the Canucks score adjusted Corsi ranks 21st in the league. They’ve made up for this even strength shortfall at even by having above average goaltending and high-end special teams, but they’re realistically not a contender. At even strength, Kassian, Kenins, Matthias, and Horvat have contributed 19 of the teams 27 total goals so far this month. As much as we may love them, they’re not going to be able to continue with the over 12% on-ice shooting percentages each one has seen in February. Regression is coming, just as it did for Nick Bonino.

So what should Jim Benning do at Monday’s trade deadline? Despite what would be in the best interests of the club long term, Benning can’t very well sell at this stage. It would be a terrible message for players, especially the young ones who have really stepped up lately to keep the Canucks playoff hopes alive, as well as fans who’ve been spoon fed the “playoffs or bust” mantra all season long. 

However, we’re still very much looking at a team whose core will be moving on in the next couple years, and as much as a round of playoff revenue would surely help to boost the Aquilini war chest, the franchise needs to be focused on life after Henrik and Daniel, and that means keeping and accumulating draft picks and young prospects, not buying veteran rentals for an ill-fated cup run. Management has done a reasonable job restocking their prospect pipeline lately, but with the 2015 draft looking to be stocked with excellent talent, they really can’t afford to move any picks for short term gains. 

This February has been extremely fun with wins over Boston and Chicago and both New York teams and Pittsburgh and Boston again, but we can’t confuse what we’ve seen of late with the Canucks being an actual contender. Whether management admits it publicly or not, they know that the window with this group is over, and assuming the ultimate goal is to actually win a Stanley Cup one day, they really can’t give up future assets for the benefits of this year team. 

At this stage, Trader Jim would be well advised heed the message of his predecessor “Stay Still Gill” and not make any big moves this deadline. Rather, the focus should be on giving the young guys a chance to play the Canucks into the playoffs, and giving them the opportunity to play when they get there. Down that road, this experience may just be more valuable than anything a short term rental could provide.