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Canucks Might Have As Good a Chance to Land Stamkos As the Leafs (Which Isn’t a Great One)
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Jeremy Davis
Feb 14, 2016, 16:07 ESTUpdated:
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When news broke that Dion Phaneuf had been traded to the Ottawa Senators in a nine-player deal, there was a great deal of celebrating in Toronto. The source of this joy was not so much the players coming to the Leafs, but rather the cap space that would be saved down the road. Why is cap space such a big deal in Toronto? Because cap space equals Steven Stamkos of course.
There is an unhealthy obsession in the Centre of the Universe with Tampa’s impending free agent captain. He’s a star player, he’s from the Toronto area, and he hasn’t re-signed with the Lightning yet. Who wouldn’t want to go home? This is basically a done deal, right?
Not so fast, though, according to multiple members of the national media. Insiders and analysts from across the country have weighed in on this topic, as well as discussed the possibility of the Canucks making a run of their own at Stamkos. So which team has a better chance of landing the superstar?
Despite the best efforts of Toronto fans and radio hosts, the mainstream media insiders have been reluctant to agree that any speculation that Stamkos wants to go to Toronto next season is well founded.
Asked if Stamkos signing with the Leafs was now a lock, the godfather himself, Bob McKenzie, wasted no time in shooting the notion down.
“Not at all, and for a couple of reasons. Number one, whether they traded Dion Phaneuf or not, there’s no doubt in my mind that if Stamkos goes to July 1, the Leafs were gonna take a really good run at Steven Stamkos, with or without Phaneuf.
The second part of that is, does Steven Stamkos want to play in Toronto? I don’t know that he does. I know that Leaf fans assume that he does, but I think there’s often times a disconnect on that. A, we’re not sure if Stamkos gets to July 1, b, if he gets to July 1 the world is his oyster and just because he’s from Toronto doesn’t necessarily mean that’s he’s like “boom, I’m coming home”, I think there’s more that goes into that decision for Stamkos. No question in my mind, the Leafs want Steven Stamkos. Significant question in my mind whether he wants them.”
The crux of why Steven Stamkos might not be eager to join the Leafs at this point could be that they are an objectively terrible hockey team. Don’t get me wrong, I understand that this is fully by design. But Steven Stamkos is 26-years old and in his prime. It’s his stated goal at this point to win a Stanley Cup (with Tampa Bay no less), and suffering through a rebuild while mentoring younger players for a shot at a Cup four or five years down the road does not sound as appetizing as signing with a team that could be ready to win now.
James Duthie looks at the offloading of the Phaneuf contract as a detriment to a pitch to Stamkos, rather than an advantage:
I think mostly fans are just linking this directly to Stamkos, saying “now we have room, Stamkos is coming.” I think it’s silly in the sense that they were probably gonna make a play, they had money anyway, yes it frees up more. I would look at it more the other way, in that it’s probably less likely that they get him, because if you’re Steven Stamkos, you’re in the prime of your career, you wanna win. Now you look at that team, and not that Dion Phaneuf was a star or anything, but they’re worse than they were [before the trade], and that’s the thing. I think there’s a lot of people here that think it’s a done deal, and I’m not saying that he’s not coming, but I think that, I know Steven Stamkos is one of the most competitive guys I’ve ever met in the game, and he’s gotta be looking at that hockey team and saying, “Okay so it’s gonna be me and some young guys who are coming, who look decent, and Morgan Reilly, and nothing else”. So money wise, sure, but actual competitiveness wise, I’m not sure why he would choose Toronto at this point.
The faithful in Toronto have had an occasional habit of overvaluing their prospect system, but what was a middle-of-the-pack pipeline just last year has begun to look legitimately threatening. Craig Button recently released his Top 50 NHL Affiliated Prospects List, and who else should be sitting on top but William Nylander, the 19-year Swede who is tearing up the AHL.
You don’t have to go far to find the second name on the list either, with Mitch Marner penciled in at number six. Josh Leivo, Kasperi Kapanen, and Connor Brown round out a group of prospects that are nearing NHL readiness. On top of that, given the Leafs position in the standings and their general ineptitude, they have a solid shot at picking up one of Auston Matthews, Patrik Laine, and Jesse Puljujarvi this June. That’s a formidable forward crop.
The problem, however, is that a contending team needs strength in all areas. Said James Duthie:
It’s more the D. They’ve got Morgan Reilly who’s really good, and Jake Gardiner who’s okay, and then you’ve got a whole lot of nothing. And you’re not gonna contend for the Stanley Cup without significant pieces. Let’s say you get Auston Matthews, or Laine, Puljujarvi even, one of those three guys, who are all gonna be impact players. Suddenly you can look at next year if you sign Stamkos and go, ‘Stamkos, Van Riemsdyk, and I dunno, Nylander on the first line.. Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, I guess Milan Michalek on the second line, and suddenly you’ve got a little bit going there up front. But you’ve still got a defence that doesn’t have much, and I don’t think you’re there yet.
Reilly and Gardiner are a good starting point, and there are others in the pipeline that could very well pan out (Stuart Percy, Rinat Valiyev, Andrew Nielsen), but these are young players, and there are no guaranteed successes here. Goaltending is another hurdle entirely.
“As an unrestricted free agent he’s got the entire open market,” TSN’s Darren Dreger told TSN 1040.  “And there’s gotta be teams much higher on the list of contenders than the Toronto Maple Leafs are going to be for the foreseeable future, the next two, three, maybe four years. So you guys try to convince me why as an unrestricted free agent when the money’s going to be the same elsewhere, would he do that.”
The money is indeed going to be the same anywhere else, at least anywhere that has a shot at landing the star sniper. This isn’t the pre-cap days where a rich owner could reach deep down in his pockets and offer up a David Price sized contract. The NHL’s Collective Bargaining Agreement limits the maximum compensation allowed in Standard Player Contracts, defined as a fraction of the overall salary cap ceiling – more specifically, 20 percent of the cap ceiling. That allows for a contract in the range of about 14 million dollars US, at the very most.
Realistically, Stamkos will probably be fielding offers in the 8.5 to 12 million dollar range, with a likely landing point of somewhere around 10 million. Any team with that much cap space can take a swing at landing him. Which begs the question: what about the Canucks?
This might seem like a bit of an unexpected development, but it certainly isn’t an unreasonable one.
“If you’ve got the cap room, you, at least, have to make a play at him don’t ya?” asked TSN’s Ray Ferraro. “Man I would certainly kick the tires and see where the ball pack is.”
People will want to downplay the chances of Vancouver landing Stamkos right away, and I have no issue with doing so. Really, it’s somewhat of a protective mechanism – why set yourself up for disappointment by getting your hopes up? After all, Vancouver doesn’t have a particularly good record when it comes to landing the big fish. This is more of a “always a bridesmaid, never a bride” kind of franchise.
I mean, unless you count these guys.
Again, anyone with the cap space can take a run at Stamkos, and likely will. The bigger question is, why would we even think that Stamkos would be interested?
Okay, well now they’re just teasing us.
It’s hard not to get caught up in the pie-in-the-sky thinking that throwaway comments like that one lead to. The Canucks will indeed open up a lot of cap space this summer, and throwing $10 million at a bonafide star doesn’t have the potential downside that trading for one does.
Unlike that Leafs, Vancouver already has other veterans that are capable of carrying heavy loads. He doesn’t have to come here and be the teacher – that’s what the Sedin twins are for.
The Canucks forward group is looking decent. It’s built mostly of guys who should be improving as the years go on, rather than declining. Shinkaruk and Gaunce are still waiting in the wings. The one thing that has been missing is a Sedin succession plan. Maybe a high end player like Stamkos, combined with a lottery pick in the upcoming draft, and things look pretty good next season. The Sedins should still have some more in the tank.
Of course, the Canucks still suffer from some of the same issues as Toronto: the future of their blueline is uncertain. After Chris Tanev and Ben Hutton, there are relatively few pieces that look to be long-term locks. Prospects like Andrey Pedan, Nikita Tryamkin, Tate Olson, and Jordan Subban are intriguing, but no more so that the AHL crop that Toronto boasts.
Vancouver also has an advantage over Toronto in terms of goaltending prospects, but the Canucks organization’s two best potential netminders, Jacob Markstrom and Thatcher Demko, are 26 and 20, respectively. The immediate future isn’t quite as warm and fuzzy.
If Stamkos really is going to be looking to win a Cup in the near future, and it sounds like that’s his goal, then the most likely outcome is probably that he doesn’t sign in either Toronto or Vancouver.
Of course, that shouldn’t stop you from fantasizing about it.
Dare to dream, Vancouver, dare to dream.

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