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Canucks Army Year in Review: Radim Vrbata

By J.D. Burke
Apr 27, 2016, 13:00 EDTUpdated:
I can’t remember a more bizarre two season run than the one Radim Vrbata first enjoyed, then endured, as a member of the Vancouver Canucks.
Signed in the 2014 off-season to a two-year, $10-million contract in unrestricted free agency, Vrbata was a revelation in his first season as a Canuck. The Czech volume shooter set a career high in points with 63 and scratched at the heels of his career high in goals, falling just short of the 35 he scored in 2012, with 31 markers. The cherry on top: being voted by his teammates as Team MVP.
That was the peak, with a valley not far in the distance. One might blame the Canucks for not dealing Vrbata at his highest value, but surely even the most pessimistic among us didn’t expect so precipitous a drop in play over the course of an off-season. There was no reason to expect Vrbata’s stock to go full-Enron. Entirely possible that his value might have been as high, or higher, at the following deadline.
As we know all too well at this stage, that just wasn’t the case. It started with a simple change in deployment. The Canucks confirmed what many – most especially Vrbata – feared over the course of the off-season, separating Vrbata from the Twins.
It goes without saying that the drop off would be cavernous to any non-Sedin line, especially on a team so young and top heavy as the Canucks. All the more so when one considers the stark contrast in style from his first centre, Henrik Sedin, to the one he inherited this season, in Bo Horvat. Vrbata, who has never been particularly fleet of foot, was doomed to fail with a player like Horvat – he of the constant bull rushes and rush based game.
Though the Canucks kept trying to make that line work, holding steadfast to their plan, it never got off the ground. A point drove home by the bursts of success that line teased when Jake Virtanen assumed spot duty in place of Vrbata, before ultimately taking his spot upon the euthanization of Vrbata’s season – an injury suffered against the Edmonton Oilers, from which he never returned.
HERO Chart

Crunching Numbers
Boxcars:

Vrbata’s 27 points represent the lowest such total since his 18 game, six-point stint with the Tampa Bay Lightning in 2008-09. And the green jacket worthy -30 is the worst of his career period. All this is to say that this wasn’t a banner season.
Corsi:

Viewing Vrbata through the Corsi lens does him no favours. This was the worst year of his career as a possession player, no matter how you slice it. Worst differential, raw percentage and a hair shy of being his worst relative mark.
Goal based:

Vrbata’s underlying goal data isn’t for the faint of heart. It’s the stuff of nightmares. I can’t even remember the last time I say a GF%Rel of 15.9% – which indicates the Canucks controlled about 16% more goals without Vrbata, as opposed to with. I’m sure his 96.1 PDO has something to do with this, but it’s a terrible look all the same.
Scoring chances:

That’s a pretty similar look to Vrbata’s shot attempt data. Which, I guess, makes sense. Vrbata’s never been a necessarily strong player by this metric, so his -0.9 SCF%Rel isn’t terrible relative to what one might reasonably expect from him in any given year. It’s not good though either.
Conclusion
Though age is catching up with Vrbata, I have a hard time believing he’s anywhere near as bad as he seemed last season. He’s probably much closer as a player to what he showed in his first season with the Canucks than his second. Luck just has a funny way of distorting a player’s true talent, and there’s something the two seasons have in common.
In reality, though this season was a massive step back and hugely disappointing, Vrbata was the least of the Canucks problems. Were he riding shotgun alongside the Sedins, or playing with a playmaking centre, he likely would’ve shown better by most, if not all metrics. A little luck wouldn’t have hurt, either.
The savvy play by Vancouver would be to place a low-cost, low-risk bet on Vrbata bouncing back. It’s not like we haven’t seen this show before. I don’t think that’s likely to play out though. There have been rumblings of the Canucks discontent with Vrbata that span as far back as their last playoff appearance in 2015. In all likelihood, they couldn’t be happier to rid themselves of Vrbata at this stage. Though I’m sure the sentiment is mutual.
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