Here at Canucks Army, we have an unhealthy obsession with hockey prospects, both undrafted and those already in the system. Never in the seven year history of this website has that obsession been more important than it is now, as the Canucks are entrenched in a rebuild, and prospects are their only hope for the future.

As was the case with our Preseason Prospect Rankings, this set was created by consensus from nearly a dozen Canucks Army writers and contributors. The parameters are simple: the qualify for the rankings, the prospect must be eligible for the Calder Memorial Trophy (aka, must be a rookie) next season. That means that Jake Virtanen, Jared McCann, and Ben Hutton are out. They are no longer considered prospects by this measure, as they have graduated to full time NHLers.

Rather than publishing individual articles for each prospect like we did in the summer (and will do again for the next preseason rankings), these are split into sections, like last year’s midterm rankings. Today we’re looking at the third, fourth, and fifth best prospects in the Canucks’ organization.

Position: Defence  –  Shoots: Left  –  Height: 6′ 5″  –  Weight: 213 lbs

Andrey Pedan was acquired by Jim Benning early last season in a minor trade that saw the Canucks give up a third round draft pick as well as Alex Mallet in return for the big Lithuanian defender. So far the move has worked out quite well for Vancouver. Pedan was a little rough around the edges when he arrived in Utica, but has made major strides in the past 15 months.

Pedan has set career bests across the board this season in Utica, in everything from goals (6) to assists (14) to points (20) to penalty minutes (83) to shots on goal (99), all in the same number of games he played last season. He’s done this while logging major minutes in Utica as a top pairing defender. He also sees regular penalty kill time and limited power play time. Pedan has been very beneficial to the Comets at both ends of the rink, as Utica has scored 61.4 per cent of the goals that went in while Pedan was on the ice at even strength – the second best among Comets regulars.

Pedan was among the group of prospects that Jim Benning wanted to take a look at this season following the trade deadline. He’s received his call-up to the NHL, though it might not exactly be in the manner that the Canucks intended it. A slew of injuries at the NHL level has forced Pedan into a role as an everyday player. Like many of the other players in his situation, Pedan’s underlying NHL numbers haven’t been anything to write home about thus far. His CorsiFor percentage of 42.9 per cent ranks among the lowest on the team and his 43.3 shots against per 60 minutes is the highest on the team.

He’s had some missteps and some unfortunate reads on the ice, but there does seem to be potential there. Pedan isn’t afraid to throw his weight around, and at 6-foot-5, 214 pounds, he can do some damage with that body. He has the ability to make good breakout passes and has shown that he is both willing and capable to jump up into the play at the AHL level – something that will likely translate to the NHL level as his confidence grows.

Like so many others on the Canucks blueline, Pedan requires waivers next season, and as such he will be penciled in to make the team next year out of training camp. The Canucks have shown in the past that they aren’t afraid to waive players who disappoint in pre-season, but it is hard to believe that the Canucks would try that move with another young defenceman, giving all the grief they’ve received about the Corrado incident.

In any case, Pedan should be ready to challenge for a spot next season, or at least fit somewhere into a blueline group that should carry eight defencemen next season. Our metric of projecting players based on statistical comparables tells us that 48.7 per cent of similar players become NHL regulars. That, combined with the visible progression he’s made since joining the organization, makes it look like the trade to get him was a profitable gamble for the Canucks.

Position: Defence  –  Shoots: Right  –  Height: 5′ 9″  –  Weight: 178 lbs

Jordan Subban is one of the most intriguing prospects in the Canucks organization at this point. He is a bit of a divisive figure when it comes to projecting his future, not so much because fans or writers have wildly varying opinions on him (he is nearly universally loved by Canucks fans), but because the expectations placed upon him by those that follow the team are very much at odds with objective historical analysis. Simply stated, guys his size rarely make it in the NHL, regardless of their production.

His rate of successful statistical comparables reflects this. Just 10 per cent of statistically similar players went on to play at least 200 NHL games. By comparison, no other skater in the top five of these rankings has a successful comparable rate below 40 per cent. It’s abundantly clear that size is what is holding Subban back in this regard.

With 33 points in 56 games this season, Subban is producing at a rate of about 0.6 points per game. Using my era adjusted database of AHL players, I calculated that approximately 53 per cent of AHL defencemen aged 23 and under that score at a rate of 0.6 points per game or higher become NHL regulars. Conversely, just 21 per cent of AHL defencemen aged 23 and under that were 5-foot-9 or shorter became NHL regulars.

Then again, there’d be no point in telling that to Jordan Subban. He already knows that his size has put him at a disadvantage, and he has no interest in succumbing to it. With Hunter Shinkaruk traded, and Alex Grenier and Brendan Gaunce up with the Canucks, Jordan Subban is now the Comets active leading scorer. As a rookie. And as a defenceman.

I typically have Subban penciled in on the Comets third pairing when recording Utica’s lines, but that might undersell his deployment a little bit. Subban may indeed be seeing third pairing ice time at even strength, and he rarely kills penalties, but he is a staple on the power play (almost always on the second unit) and has been all season long. When given time and space Subban is excellent at rushing the puck, which makes him adept at handling a power play breakout. Plus, his ability to walk the line and change the angles in the offensive zone are contributing factors as to why the Comets have scored 13 power play goals with him in the ice so far this season.

Much has been made about Subban’s struggles in the defensive zone, and the criticisms are warranted. The instinct may be to blame his size, but his above average strength allows him to play bigger in his own zone that his actual size would suggest he could. His speed and battle level also make him a strong back checker, and he never gives on pucks that are turned over. Instead, Subban’s issues revolve around decision making when under pressure. As mentioned, when given time and space, Subban can skate like the wind and make beautiful long distance passes, but under pressure he is prone to egregious giveaways – he’s usually good for one or two per game, just a the minor league level.

It’s understandable why the Canucks aren’t in any hurry with Subban. He’s in his first professional season and they have plenty of time to develop him and see what they have in him. Travis Green has already made remarks about the improvements Subban has made to his defensive game this season. If he can continue to progress in that regard, the Canucks will be in good shape knowing that the offense is already there. Further development could make Jordan Subban a dangerous offensive threat on the Canucks blueline sometime in the not-so-distant future.

Position: Left Wing / Centre  –  Shoots: Left  –  Height: 6′ 2″  –  Weight: 207 lbs

Brendan Gaunce’s progression over the past 18 months has been well chronicled – from the forgotten prospect to one of Utica’s most complete players, to knocking on the door of the NHL. Now he’s finally made it to the show and his foray into the National Hockey League is proving as tumultuous as his sophomore season in Utica. If there’s one thing that Gaunce is demonstrating right now though, it’s his versatility.

In terms of deployment, Gaunce has been all over the map this season. On any given night in the AHL, he could be found anywhere in the top six, be it at centre, left wing, or right wing. He’s played on the first power play unit, been a go to penalty killer, and frequently closed out games, whether it was defending a lead or trying to tie the game. No one in Utica saw the ice more than Brendan Gaunce this season, and in every situation, and every position, he produced. Of the 15 goals he’s scored this season in the AHL, nine came at 5-on-5, one at 4-on-4, one in 3-on-3 overtime, two on the power play, and two while shorthanded.

Gaunce’s rookie season in the NHL hasn’t been quite as fruitful so far. In ten games, he’s scored a single goal, and that just happened to bounce off of him and go in – granted, he was going hard to the crease, which is a positive. His CorsiFor percentage on 44.39 per cent is not so positive however. On the other hand, the team has controlled 47.6 per cent of scoring chances while he’s been on the ice, which, while still not being great, is third best on the team among players that have played at least nine games.

Gaunce was recently sent back to Utica, following a lament from Willie Desjardins that he needed to up his battle level. Injuries necessitated that he be recalled immediately, and since then Gaunce has been one of the team’s better players in a series of miserable games. Sure, he isn’t scoring goals, but then again, no one is. It’s getting to the point where it’s difficult to evaluate players based on their results. Players can hardly be expected to succeed in that regard when the team around them is crumbling before their eyes.

When I see Brendan Gaunce, I see a player who is ready to play in the NHL. I see a player that has more versatility than many are giving him credit for. Members of the media may have been surprised when Gaunce was deployed at centre on Tuesday in Winnipeg, but to me it makes complete sense. Gaunce has handled all forward positions admirably in Utica this season, and this is a regime that has come to covet players that can move laterally across the depth chart, as well as up and down.

I expected Gaunce to be stepping into an NHL role much earlier in the season, and although that didn’t come to fruition until the team was in garbage time, I’ll certainly be expecting him to grab the gig full time next year. His rate of successful comparable players is the third highest among Canucks prospects at 43.6 per cent, and I expect him to make good on that going forward.

This concludes another segment of the Midterm Rankings. Tomorrow’s edition will contain the final two prospects: the two best prospects in the Canucks organization at this time. You all know who they are by now, so argue amongst yourselves which one should get the esteemed honour of being number one.