2018 NHL Draft Preliminary Rankings: Top 50
By Jeremy Davis
6 years agoAfter going through the top 15 prospects in some level of detail, I’ve compiled a list of those previously covered as well as another 35 to make up a preliminary top 50 for next years draft. Remember, if you see someone high on the list below and you want some more details on them, you can find in-depth coverage of the first 15 players in the following articles:
I said this already in the 1 to 5 post, but I’ll note again that this list is my own, and not a consolidation of either other members of the network (as our Draft Profile series was) or industry rankings. Anything that you find utterly ridiculous about the arrangement of prospects can be blamed solely on me.
A Rundown of the Stats Used In These Articles
If you’ve already read this in the previous articles, you can go ahead and skip this section.
You can get draft lists from a myriad of sources, but since you came to Canucks Army, you can expect somewhat of a statistical lean. There will be video and some scouting reports as well, but much ink will be spilled on stats, as we have metrics here that you won’t find anywhere else. What follows is a brief description of each of the stats referenced in the tables below.
- Age: Exact age to two decimal points, calculated as of September 15th, 2016. That date is used for draft purposes – anyone with an exact age greater than or equal to 16.00 and less than 17.00 as of that date will be eligible for the first time at the 2018 draft.
- Box Cars: GP, G, A, P stand for the standard Games Played, Goals, Assists, and Points, during the 2016-17 regular season.
- Sh/GP: Shots on goal per games played.
- GF%: Percentage of 5-on-5 on-ice goals scored in favour of the player’s team.
- GF%rel: The difference between the player’s on-ice GF% relative to the team’s GF% when the player is off the ice.
- pGPS:
- xSucc is Expected Success Rate for the player, based on how many similar players reached a 200 NHL game threshold, weighted by similarity.
- xPro/82 is the Expected Production of the player per 82 games, based on how similar players produced in the NHL, weighted by similarity.
- xVal is Expected Value, the product of xSucc and xPro/82. Check this article to see an Expected Value curve from last year’s draft to get an idea of what constitutes a “good” xVal. Last year the expected values in the first round ranged from about 35 to 15.
- SEAL: The SEAL adjusted scoring value. SEAL stands for Situational, Era, Age, and League. Here’s a rundown of the current iteration of SEAL, which evolved from a technique that Garret Hohl pioneered for the 2015 draft.
Certain metrics are only available for certain leagues, depending on how easily available the data is to the public, and in some cases whether or not Dylan Kirkby (our resident programmer) and I have had the time to set up the necessary data scrapers. Here’s a run down on which metrics are available in which leagues.
- pGPS: I can run pGPS data on about 20 leagues right now, so at the top of the draft, it’s easier just to say which leagues it doesn’t do. For the purposes of this list, the missing leagues are: the MHL (Russian Junior), SM-Liiga Nuorten (Finnish Junior).
- SEAL: SEAL adjustments are currently available for all CHL leagues (WHL, OHL, QMJHL), USHL, NCAA, SHL, and Czech Extraliga. Dependent on availability of situational scoring data.
- GF% and GF%rel: Currently available for all CHL leagues (WHL, OHL, QMJHL), USHL, SHL, and Czech Extraliga.
Without any further ado, here is the top 50 list.
The 2018 NHL Entry Draft Preliminary Top 50
| Rank | Player | Pos | Age | Height | Nat. | League | GP | G | A | P | Sh/GP | GF% | GF%rel | pGPS xSucc | xPro/ 82 | pGPS xVal | SEAL |
| 1 | Rasmus Dahlin | D | 16.42 | 6.01 | SWE | Superelit | 24 | 9 | 13 | 22 | 4.58 | 100% | 78 | 77.7 | 0.692 | ||
| 2 | Andrei Svechnikov | RW | 16.47 | 6.02 | RUS | USHL | 44 | 26 | 27 | 53 | 3.31 | 70.1% | +16.8% | 100% | 73 | 73.0 | 1.356 |
| 3 | Joseph Veleno | C | 16.67 | 6.00 | CAN | QMJHL | 45 | 13 | 27 | 40 | 2.38 | 57.7% | -3.6% | 25% | 55 | 13.8 | 0.942 |
| 4 | Ryan Merkley | D | 16.09 | 5.11 | CAN | OHL | 62 | 12 | 43 | 55 | 2.50 | 38.1% | -2.4% | 91% | 33 | 29.6 | 1.053 |
| 5 | Filip Zadina | LW | 16.80 | 6.00 | CZE | Czech | 25 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.72 | 23.5% | 25% | 44 | 11.3 | 0.246 | |
| 6 | Brady Tkachuk | C | 17.00 | 6.02 | USA | USHL | 22 | 11 | 10 | 21 | 3.50 | 57.6% | +14.5% | 38% | 44 | 16.8 | 0.870 |
| 7 | Quinton Hughes | D | 16.92 | 5.09 | USA | USHL | 24 | 4 | 20 | 24 | 1.65 | 52.1% | +8.8% | 0% | 0 | 0.0 | 1.165 |
| 8 | Anderson MacDonald | LW | 16.33 | 6.02 | CAN | QMJHL | 50 | 29 | 12 | 41 | 3.00 | 40.0% | -1.2% | 48% | 47 | 22.4 | 0.971 |
| 9 | Adam Boqvist | D | 16.09 | 5.10 | SWE | Superelit | 18 | 4 | 12 | 16 | 2.28 | 74% | 78 | 57.6 | |||
| 10 | Isac Lundestrom | C/LW | 16.86 | 6.00 | SWE | SHL | 45 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 0.31 | 38.1% | -12.2% | 73% | 56 | 40.9 | 0.571 |
| Rank | Player | Pos | Age | Height | Nat. | League | GP | G | A | P | Sh/GP | GF% | GF%rel | pGPS xSucc | xPro/ 82 | pGPS xVal | SEAL |
| 11 | Jared McIsaac | D | 16.47 | 6.02 | CAN | QMJHL | 59 | 4 | 28 | 32 | 1.83 | 60.0% | +12.7% | 35% | 26 | 9.0 | 0.484 |
| 12 | Ryan McLeod | C | 16.99 | 6.02 | CAN | OHL | 68 | 9 | 33 | 42 | 1.63 | 57.5% | +4.7% | 21% | 38 | 7.8 | 0.772 |
| 13 | Akil Thomas | C | 16.70 | 5.11 | USA | OHL | 61 | 21 | 27 | 48 | 2.39 | 40.5% | -7.4% | 29% | 50 | 14.8 | 0.981 |
| 14 | Evan Bouchard | D | 16.91 | 6.02 | CAN | OHL | 68 | 11 | 33 | 44 | 1.99 | 58.7% | -4.3% | 41% | 37 | 15.3 | 0.694 |
| 15 | Joel Farabee | LW | 16.56 | 5.11 | USA | USHL | 28 | 12 | 11 | 23 | 1.73 | 54.5% | +11.0% | 0% | 35 | 0.0 | 0.894 |
| 16 | Allan McShane | C | 16.59 | 5.11 | CAN | OHL | 62 | 17 | 27 | 44 | 1.87 | 58.5% | +3.3% | 26% | 46 | 12.0 | 0.896 |
| 17 | Bode Wilde | D | 16.64 | 6.02 | CAN | USHL | 29 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 1.59 | 31.1% | -16.5% | 10% | 23 | 2.2 | 0.217 |
| 18 | Alexander Khovanov | C | 16.43 | 5.11 | RUS | MHL | 29 | 8 | 14 | 22 | |||||||
| 19 | Jakub Lauko | F | 16.47 | 6.01 | CZE | Czech | 28 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0.61 | 34% | 44 | 14.8 | 0.240 | ||
| 20 | David Levin | LW/RW | 17.00 | 5.10 | ISR | OHL | 66 | 18 | 35 | 53 | 2.15 | 42.9% | -4.3% | 22% | 43 | 9.4 | 0.954 |
| Rank | Player | Pos | Age | Height | Nat. | League | GP | G | A | P | Sh/GP | GF% | GF%rel | pGPS xSucc | xPro/ 82 | pGPS xVal | SEAL |
| 21 | Jack McBain | C | 16.69 | 6.03 | CAN | OJHL | 42 | 13 | 28 | 41 | |||||||
| 22 | Jett Woo | D | 16.14 | 6.00 | CAN | WHL | 65 | 5 | 17 | 22 | 54.9% | +1.3% | 21% | 25 | 5.2 | 0.396 | |
| 23 | Adam Ginning | D | 16.67 | 6.03 | SWE | Superelit | 29 | 0 | 10 | 10 | 1.83 | 6% | 29 | 1.7 | 0.613 | ||
| 24 | Santeri Salmela | D | 16.27 | 6.01 | FIN | Liiga | 9 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0.89 | 0% | 0 | 0.0 | |||
| 25 | Ty Smith | D | 16.48 | 5.11 | CAN | WHL | 66 | 5 | 27 | 32 | 47.6% | +0.9% | 26% | 28 | 7.3 | 0.542 | |
| 26 | Jesse Ylonen | RW | 16.95 | 6.00 | FIN | Jr. A Liiga | 37 | 15 | 16 | 31 | |||||||
| 27 | Oliver Wahlstrom | C | 16.26 | 6.01 | USA | USHL | 27 | 7 | 4 | 11 | 2.38 | 37.5% | -8.6% | 8% | 66 | 5.1 | 0.535 |
| 28 | Calen Addison | D | 16.43 | 5.09 | CAN | WHL | 63 | 9 | 24 | 33 | 58.3% | +8.6% | 30% | 29 | 8.7 | 0.550 | |
| 29 | Alexander Alexeyev | D | 16.84 | 6.03 | RUS | WHL | 41 | 4 | 17 | 21 | 57.1% | +7.1% | 36% | 24 | 8.7 | 0.560 | |
| 30 | Nathan Dunkley | C | 16.37 | 5.11 | CAN | OHL | 58 | 6 | 25 | 31 | 1.40 | 42.4% | -5.2% | 20% | 37 | 7.4 | 0.722 |
| Rank | Player | Pos | Age | Height | Nat. | League | GP | G | A | P | Sh/GP | GF% | GF%rel | pGPS xSucc | xPro/ 82 | pGPS xVal | SEAL |
| 31 | Riley Sutter | RW | 16.89 | 6.02 | CAN | WHL | 67 | 20 | 18 | 38 | 60.0% | +2.5% | 19% | 38 | 7.3 | 0.567 | |
| 32 | Gabriel Fortier | LW | 16.61 | 5.09 | CAN | QMJHL | 25 | 11 | 6 | 17 | 2.20 | 50.0% | -0.7% | 11% | 48 | 5.4 | 0.740 |
| 33 | Xavier Bouchard | D | 16.55 | 6.02 | CAN | QMJHL | 63 | 4 | 30 | 34 | 1.00 | 51.6% | +1.6% | 30% | 27 | 7.9 | 0.495 |
| 34 | Mattias Samuelsson | D | 16.51 | 6.03 | USA | USHL | 26 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 1.33 | 51.2% | +7.5% | 17% | 22 | 3.8 | 0.413 |
| 35 | Jesperi Kotkaniemi | C | 16.20 | 6.02 | FIN | Jr. A Liiga | 17 | 9 | 6 | 15 | |||||||
| 36 | Benoit-Olivier Groulx | C | 16.61 | 6.01 | CAN | QMJHL | 62 | 17 | 14 | 31 | 1.76 | 41.0% | -12.5% | 7% | 39 | 2.7 | 0.510 |
| 37 | Kirill Nizhnikov | RW | 16.47 | 6.01 | RUS | OHL | 43 | 12 | 7 | 19 | 2.56 | 27.1% | -15.4% | 26% | 38 | 9.8 | 0.596 |
| 38 | Jacob Olofsson | C | 16.60 | 6.02 | SWE | Superelit | 29 | 4 | 12 | 16 | 1.79 | 16% | 39 | 6.2 | |||
| 39 | Grigori Denisenko | LW | 16.28 | 5.11 | RUS | MHL | 28 | 9 | 13 | 22 | |||||||
| 40 | Rasmus Kupari | C | 16.50 | 6.01 | FIN | Jr. A Liiga | 22 | 4 | 10 | 14 | |||||||
| Rank | Player | Pos | Age | Height | Nat. | League | GP | G | A | P | Sh/GP | GF% | GF%rel | pGPS xSucc | xPro/ 82 | pGPS xVal | SEAL |
| 41 | Ty Dellandrea | C | 16.15 | 6.01 | CAN | OHL | 57 | 13 | 11 | 24 | 1.81 | 44.8% | -6.0% | 21% | 35 | 7.4 | 0.557 |
| 42 | Krystof Hrabik | F | 16.98 | 6.03 | CZE | Czech | 13 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.77 | 30% | 61 | 18.5 | 0.308 | ||
| 43 | Oliver Castleman | LW/RW | 17.00 | 5.10 | CAN | OHL | 66 | 18 | 22 | 40 | 0.815 | ||||||
| 44 | Filip Hallander | C/W | 16.21 | 5.12 | SWE | Superelit | 34 | 9 | 15 | 24 | 20% | 41 | 8.5 | ||||
| 45 | Philipp Kurashev | LW/C | 16.93 | 5.12 | SUI | QMJHL | 65 | 21 | 33 | 54 | 2.52 | 47.4% | +10.1% | 15% | 55 | 8.0 | 0.941 |
| 46 | Serron Noel | RW | 16.10 | 6.03 | CAN | OHL | 63 | 8 | 13 | 21 | 1.10 | 47.8% | -0.1% | 20% | 35 | 6.9 | 0.489 |
| 47 | Luka Burzan | C | 16.69 | 6.00 | CAN | WHL | 66 | 14 | 13 | 27 | 57.4% | +4.2% | 13% | 39 | 4.9 | 0.503 | |
| 48 | Nicolas Beaudin | D | 16.94 | 5.10 | CAN | QMJHL | 64 | 5 | 36 | 41 | 1.91 | 44.4% | +3.0% | 21% | 30 | 6.5 | 0.553 |
| 49 | Giovanni Vallati | D | 16.57 | 6.01 | CAN | OHL | 59 | 5 | 16 | 21 | 1.12 | 56.2% | +11.9% | 17% | 26 | 4.4 | 0.394 |
| 50 | Filip Kral | D | 16.91 | 5.11 | CZE | Czech2 | 12 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.48 | 13% | 24 | 3.2 | 0.295 |
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