As I’m sure you’ve heard, Vancouver plays what could be their final game of the season tonight after falling behind 3 games to 1 to the Calgary Flames. It’s very nearly the worst case scenario for the Canucks as they find themselves in an incredibly tough spot and are without a doubt on the ropes.

Still, the series isn’t over until it’s over, and Vancouver has a fighting chance. But with no room for error, every single thing has to go perfectly in order for the Canucks to advance to the second round of the playoffs.

Here are five things that have to happen for Vancouver to win the next three games and come all the way back to knock off the Calgary Flames.

Vancouver’s top defensive pairing has been so crucial to their success this season in all facets of their game. Alex Edler and Chris Tanev were ace defensive stoppers at 5-on-5, elite penalty killers, and played roles on Vancouver’s 8th ranked powerplay as well. But so far these playoffs, their play has sagged and they have not been able to provide with play that’s been good enough to win a playoff series.

Both defenders are below 50% Corsi against a much weaker opponent than what they’re used to seeing on a nightly basis, and are allowing significantly more scoring chances than they did in the regular season. Both defenders are permitting the Flames more than three more scoring chances per 60 minutes than they allowed their regular season match-ups, and have been out-chanced at even strength by a Flames team that’s hardly out-chanced anyone all season.

Yes, Luca Sbisa and Kevin Bieksa are the larger issue, but their struggles aren’t abnormal for the Canucks. They’ve been awful all year, and likely aren’t about to turn a corner in game 87 of the season. On the other hand, we know that Edler and Tanev have more to give, and we know that they’ve been one of the top defensive pairings in the Western Conference, so if the Canucks are going to win, it’s going to be on the backs of their two strongest defenders. Their first pairing simply must be better.

Whether or not your goaltender is on top of his game plays a larger role in determining the outcome of one standalone hockey game than nearly anything else. Most good teams average fewer than three goals per game while allowing just over two goals per game, so the margins for error from your goalie are razor thin at the best of times.

The Canucks actually had a decent pushback after Calgary’s 1-0 goal in game 3, however their efforts were immediately sunk by a couple of quick goals afterwards from the Flames. The team noticeably sagged in the second period, and by the time the 3rd rolls around in that situation, there simply isn’t enough time to reliably make up two goals on any opponent with half decent goaltending.

Vancouver cannot afford to trail by a couple goals early in hockey games, and they cannot afford their goalies letting them down if they’re leading late. Quite simply, it doesn’t matter who starts for the Canucks. What matters is that whoever starts keeps the Flames to two goals or fewer.

This is it. This is the moment that Desjardins has been banking “freshness” for all season. Each game is an absolute must-win at this point, so you absolutely cannot afford to have your best players sitting on the bench for a second longer than is absolutely necessary, especially if the game is close. Daniel and Henrik Sedin are top-10 NHL scorers in 2014-2015, and have become ace defensive players too. They’ve been dominating the possession and scoring chance counts this series, and Calgary has devoted their entire effort to just slowing the twins down when they’re on the ice.

The Flames are manufacturing literally nothing by way of offence when Desjardins sends Daniel and Henrik out, but are feasting on Vancouver’s depth players. This is a massive advantage that Desjardins has to take advantage of since it’s the best way to put your team in the best position to score more goals than the Calgary Flames at even strength. When the score is close, the Sedins should play as much hockey as they can possibly handle tonight and in any other close game situation that comes after this. Desjardins can figure out how to distribute the remaining ice time as the games play out.

Speaking of the Sedins…

Of all players to get a regular shift these playoffs, Daniel and Henrik Sedin have the highest Corsi% and Scoring Chance% of all NHL players. Through 4 games, Henrik is carrying a +23 on-ice scoring chance differential at 5-on-5, which is the highest mark in the league. Daniel, Henrik, and the now injured Alex Burrows also occupy 3 of the top-4 spots in the NHL in scoring chances/60, and Daniel has the 4th most individual scoring chances of all players in the playoffs.

All this is to say that the Sedins lack of production isn’t because they’re not playing well or getting opportunities, but rather they’re simply not converting those opportunities into goals. This has been problematic for that line as a whole since both twins turned 30, and it’s been magnified by Daniel no longer being a top-6 caliber finisher at even strength:

Whatever the case, the Sedins are playing well enough to get chances, but they need to just buckle down and get those chances in the net. Even slowed by age, injuries, and a quagmire of Flames bodies, they represent Vancouver’s best chance at scoring more goals than Calgary and winning the next few games. But they have to score.

This has not been a good series for Nick Bonino. In fact, you wouldn’t be wrong to say that his line has been a complete and total catastrophe that’s undermined any of the good work any of Vancouver’s other lines have done. While the Sedins are playing well and not producing the necessary results, Nick Bonino’s second line is just playing brutal hockey.

Higgins-Bonino-Vrbata lead the Canucks in 5-on-5 ice time this series, and they’re also been the Canucks’ worst line. Bonino is a team-low 46% Corsi, and has a team-low 29% scoring chance percentage when the score has been tied this series. In fact, Vancouver’s entire bottom-9 forward group has been out-chanced and out-possessed by the Flames when the score has been tied this series. Vancouver’s entire edge in terms of underlying numbers is completely because of the Sedins.

Although there’s a feeling that Vancouver has dominated the fancystats in this series, that’s not really true. Because the Canucks depth players have performed so poorly, the Flames have had the edge in roughly 75% of the highest leverage ice time. While it’s vital the Sedins start contributing tangible offensive output, it’s even more critical than every other forward on the Canucks steps up and out-plays one of the worst possession teams in the NHL.

It’s a tough road ahead with zero margin for error, but if there’s one playoff series that could see a big comeback, it’s this one.