Before we begin, a quick boldness check here.

Normally, making any hockey-related prediction as specific as this should count as bold. But this time around, we’re not so sure. If we’re predicting that something that has already happened three times in a row will happen for a fourth time, is that truly bold? Some might say not. Then again, on the other hand, trades can happen at any time, and if another one truly goes down in January 2026, we’re still going to feel pretty intelligent for having called it.

So, we’re sticking with this one.

In any case, as we’ve mentioned already, this current Vancouver Canucks front office has a clear-cut pattern of making major trades involving centres late in the month of January. It sounds like a weird thing to get into the habit of doing, but GM Patrik Allvin and POHO Jim Rutherford are in the habit all the same.

Technically speaking, the first big January move for Allvin and Co. was getting hired in late January of 2022. But the only centre involved there was Cammi Granato.

A year later, on January 30, 2023, the Allvin Regime closed down their first blockbuster deal, sending the soon-to-be-free-agent Bo Horvat to the New York Islanders in exchange for Anthony Beauvillier, Aatu Räty, and a first round pick that would shortly be flipped for Filip Hronek.

A year after that, on January 31, 2024, the Canucks went from selling centres to buying them. Vancouver acquired Elias Lindholm from the Calgary Flames for a massive package that included a first round pick, a conditional fourth, Andrei Kuzmenko, Hunter Brzustewicz, and Joni Jurmo. Lindholm, however – a pending UFA himself – would be gone to Boston within a matter of months.

Then, most recently, on January 31, 2025, the Canucks actually made two major trades, though only one involved centres. After much speculation, Vancouver sent JT Miller, along with Erik Brännström and Jackson Dorrington, to the New York Rangers for Filip Chytil, Victor Mancini, and a conditional first round pick.

Later that night, they flipped the first to Pittsburgh, along with Danton Heinen, Vincent Desharnais, and Melvin Fernstrom, for Marcus Pettersson and Drew O’Connor.

And there you have it. Three Januarys in a row have featured blockbuster trades involving centres. The pattern could even be seen as an alternating one, with the Canucks rotating between selling a centre, to buying one, to selling one, to…buying one in late January of 2026? If the pattern holds, that’s exactly what will happen.

We realize this is all a bit silly. That the Canucks have done this three Januarys in a row is, almost certainly, mostly down to coincidence. It’s not something they’ve set out to do at the start of any season, that is.

The Horvat trade was done so as to avoid the chaos of the Trade Deadline and give the Canucks time to move the assets they acquired. Lindholm was someone they were after all year, and finally brought in when the price became right. Miller had to go as soon as possible.

But this trend we’re tracking isn’t the sole reason why we believe another January centre trade is likely.

The Canucks are currently sitting on some cap space. Not a ton – between about $2.37 million and $3.27 million, depending on what size roster they run – but cap space all the same.

That’s nowhere near the neighbourhood of the space that might be needed to add a new centre to this roster. But the nice thing about open cap at the start of a season is that it effectively banks additional value, or accrues, over time.

As it stands, the Canucks cap space is projected to accrue to nearly $15 million in contract value by Trade Deadline 2026. But the Canucks wouldn’t have to wait that long. Cap is accrued on a daily basis, and by late January 2026, they may have already accrued as much as $10 million in purchasing power. That means that, by January, they could have the room to add a player with a very sizeable cap hit to their roster.

In other words, late January 2026 might be the point at which the Canucks can officially afford to add a new 2C to the lineup without having to cut cap first. And for a team that is in drastic need of improvement, not just reconfiguration, that’s important.

Waiting until January for such a trade also has some distinct practical advantages. The first is that the Canucks themselves should have a much clearer picture of what kind of team they are by then. There are a lot of ‘what if’ questions surrounding the Canucks heading into 2025-26 – questions about Elias Pettersson’s quality of play, Thatcher Demko’s health, the forward corps in general – that, depending on their answers, could have wide-ranging impacts on the team’s success.

By January 2026, however, many of those questions will have been answered, at least partially. To be a little brusque about it (but not DeBrusk about it), if Pettersson doesn’t bounce back and Demko doesn’t return to Vezina-quality play, maybe there’s not much point in adding to this roster, anyway, and no need to bring in a new player.

Conversely, however, if most things are going well for the Canucks, and they’ve put themselves back into a playoff position by January 2026, then a big acquisition becomes a lot easier to justify, as it did for Lindholm in 2024.

On the flipside of that perspective, too, is the fact that there just aren’t a lot of centres readily available on the trade market right now. Most teams are in the phase of their preparation where they’ve settled on a roster and are resting upon their hopes for 2025-26.

By January, however, many of those hopes will have been dashed by the harsh reality of professional sports, and that should naturally shake at least a few more centres loose over time.

So, just to recap this Bold Prediction, we think the Canucks are likely to wait until late January of 2026 to make a big trade for a new centre, because:

-They’ll likely have accrued more cap space by then.

-They’ll have a better idea of what kind of team they are by then.

-More centres should be available at that time.

-They’ve done it in every other January so far.

Predictive? Yes. Bold? Up for debate. Actually happening?

Wait and see.