On a recent episode of Canucks Conversation, David Quadrelli and Harman Dayal tackled a hypothetical scenario: what kind of contract would Vancouver Canucks forward Elias Pettersson command if he hit unrestricted free agency this summer?
Harm was clear from the jump: “He’s a minimum $10 million player – at the absolute lowest point.” He pointed to rising cap expectations and inflation across the league as key reasons why Elias Pettersson would still command a massive deal, even coming off a disappointing season.
“The reason I say that is, look at the inflation around the league when it comes to contracts. Jakob Chychrun, as of next season, is going to be a $9 million defenceman. Chychrun is a number two-three defenceman; he’s coming off a good season, but he’s roughly comparable to Filip Hronek. Hronek was $7.25 [million], so you see the jump in essentially one year because of how much the cap is expected to rise.”
Harm also pointed to comparables among young forwards in the league: “Matt Coronato in Calgary is basically the Flames’ version of Jonathan Lekkerimäki, except he’s one year older. [He] was drafted in the middle of the first, had an up-and-down season where he produced in the AHL but didn’t quite break out in the NHL. This past season he broke out with 24 goals for the Flames. He got $6.5 million on a long-term deal, and a lot of people are looking at that as a favourable contract because he’s young and will likely be a 30-goal scorer for a long time. But it was just one 24-goal season, and immediately he’s a $6.5 million player, as a winger, mind you.”
The conversation turned to centres, where Harm drew a line in the market for a player of Pettersson’s pedigree: “We’re talking about Brock Boeser potentially as an $8.5 million player. Even some centres with outdated contracts: Pierre-Luc Dubois is an $8 million centre. Bo Horvat is an $8.5 million centre. I would still expect Pettersson, if he were to hit the free agent market, to command $10, maybe $11 million on a max-term deal.”
Quads followed up by addressing a narrative around Pettersson’s declining trade or contract value. “This idea that Pettersson is a total sunk-cost asset – if you gave the rest of the league a chance to sign him, they wouldn’t be after a three-year ‘prove it’ deal. There would be suitors for him. It goes into the conversation of trading him and his value around the league. The problem for teams becomes they have to give up assets to bring in what would, for at least half the league, be the biggest contract in their franchise’s history.”
Harm added that elite talent always finds suitors, no matter the recent dip in performance. “It’s so rare for a player with 90–100 point potential to ever become available. Teams are willing to roll the dice and take those risks. Dubois, at the end of last year, was coming off a brutal 40-point campaign and was widely viewed as one of the worst contracts in the NHL. Plus, there were character concerns, and the Capitals were still willing to roll the dice on him before the NMC kicked in. Because of how tough it is to find top-six centres, there’s still takers.”
He concluded with a reminder about the dynamics of NHL free agency: “The other thing about free agency is, if we’re talking about a $10-11 million cap hit, you don’t need six teams to buck up for that, just one. It only takes one team to value a player significantly higher than the rest of the market for a player to get that contract.”
You can watch the full segment below.
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