The eight-year, $112 million extension Leon Draisaitl signed with the Edmonton Oilers in early September is not the richest deal in NHL history. That honour still goes to the 13-year, $124 million contract Alex Ovechkin signed with his Washington Capitals back in 2008.
But Draisaitl’s deal does hold the distinction of producing the largest cap hit in NHL history at a whopping $14 million AAV.
And a number that large can’t help but to set a new standard, and to impact all future big-ticket contracts from here on out.
To be clear, Draisaitl isn’t the best player in the world. Or, at least, few would rank him as such. He’s just the first megastar to sign a new contract after the league had fully freed itself out from under the COVID-induced flat cap ceiling.
But that just serves to make his contract all the more impactful. If this were Connor McDavid we were talking about, there may be an argument that the cap hit doesn’t mean much for anyone else, because there’s really only one McDavid in the world.
But there are at least a handful of Draisaitl’s. By most measures, he fits somewhere within the top-five centres in all of hockey – firmly behind McDavid, and somewhere in the mix with Nathan MacKinnon, Auston Matthews, Aleksander Barkov, and perhaps the ageless Sidney Crosby.
If we extend the net to all skaters, we can probably safely place Draisaitl in at least the top-ten. It is the other players in that “Not quite McDavid, but the next best thing” tier that will be rocked by the waves made by the Draisaitl contract the most.
A tier that, of course, includes the Canucks’ own Quinn Hughes.
There really isn’t much debate to be had anymore about who ranks as the singular best player in Vancouver. JT Miller may have willed himself into genuine superstardom. And Elias Pettersson may still hold the potential to become a truly franchise-altering 1C. But Hughes is already there, having claimed his first Norris Trophy in 2023/24 at the age of 24.
That award doesn’t necessarily make Hughes the best defender in the game. The Norris tends to change hands most years. But he’s certainly in the conversation, with only the likes of Cale Makar, Roman Josi, and Adam Fox standing out as legitimate challengers.
Take those four defenders, add the aforementioned centres, and throw a few extremely-high-value wingers like Nikita Kucherov and Matthew Tkachuk onto the pile, and you’ve got your “1B” tier of NHL skaters. The best of the rest, sans McDavid.
Folks could argue endlessly about whether Draisaitl or Hughes really makes the greater difference in their teams’ ability to win. The point is that both make an excessively outsized difference, and will be paid accordingly. The reality is that, whichever deserves the higher salary, the other shouldn’t be far behind.
So, does this mean a $14 million AAV pay-out for Hughes when his own extension is due?
The news, both good and bad, is that Hughes isn’t due for another contract for quite some time. His current deal expires after the 2026/27 season, meaning he isn’t even eligible to start talking terms until July 1, 2026. That’s right before he turns 28, the same age Draisaitl is now.
But that also means that, by the time negotiations begin, the salary cap ceiling will have risen significantly. It rose from $83.5 million to $88 million this past offseason. Another couple of raises like that, and it’ll be at $97 million by the time Hughes negotiations begin, and could be over $100 million by the time his new deal is set to kick in.
Draisaitl’s $14 million AAV currently represents 15.91% of the total available cap. By the time it kicks in for the 2025/26 season, it will represent a slightly smaller percentage.
It doesn’t take a mathematician to figure out the implications. A 15% share of a $100 million cap is $15 million!
As such, Canucks fans should brace for what can’t help but to be a shocking dollar-amount on the eventual Hughes contract. If there’s any hope for a discount, it’s in the fact that centres tend to be the highest-paid players in the league, even more so than the very best blueliners.
The highest AAV for a defender in the NHL right now is Erik Karlsson’s $11.5 million, a contract he signed at the age of 29 when it represented 14.11% of the cap.
Next comes Drew Doughty’s $11 million, signed at the age of 28 when it represented 13.5% of the cap.
Those are pretty dated examples, but they’re probably the closest corollary we can find. A more recent example is the $11 million AAV for eight years deal signed by Rasmus Dahlin this past year, but then he signed that at the age of 23 and is definitely at least one full step behind Hughes, skill-wise.
His on-ice comparables all signed their current deals at too different a stage in their careers to be of much use. Josi signed at eight-year, $9.06 million deal with Nashville back in 2019, before he had fully broken out offensively.
Fox signed for eight years at $9.5 million AAV after his sophomore Norris at age 23.
Makar signed a six-year, $9 million AAV extension back in 2021, when he was still just 21 years old.
Makar’s contract expires the same year that Hughes’ current one does. If Makar signs his next deal before Hughes does, then he becomes the most obvious comparable.
But until that happens?
It’s the Draisaitl deal that sets the new standard for franchise-player pay that Hughes and his team will be citing when they sit down with the Canucks in the summer of 2026.
Which is, of course, not to say that he won’t be worth it. But a cap hit of $14 million, for any player, is a big enough number to elicit a little sticker shock in just about anyone.
This is little more than a warning to be prepared – and maybe to get in those cheapshots about the Oilers’ bloated books sooner rather than later.
Sponsored by bet365