On Friday, Daily Faceoff’s Frank Seravalli reported that the Vancouver Canucks offered pending UFA winger Brock Boeser a five-year contract at $8 million annually. A contract offer that Seravalli says, Boeser declined.

The reaction among Canucks fans to the news was mixed, with some saying that’s far too much money for Boeser, and others calling it a slap in the face for the longest-tenured Vancouver Canuck.

That’s why we thought it’d be interesting to put ourselves in Boeser and his camp’s shoes and try to size up the summer’s UFA market to try to determine what Boeser would get on the open market when NHL free agency opens on July 1st.

Like it or not, a big factor in NHL free agency is that there are only so many impact players available. Once these players are signed, teams that missed out on those players typically go down the list and look for “the next best thing”. And it’s when teams get there, that we typically see some pretty significant overpays, as GMs do their best to load up their team for the next season.

So where does Boeser rank in terms of the upcoming free agents? Barring any of these players signing with their current teams — and we’d bet at least one of them will, which would move Boeser up the list — the list of true impact forwards under 30 available in free agency appears to be down to these three names:

Mitch Marner
Mikko Rantanen
Nikolaj Ehlers

After that, Boeser is a clear number four. Beyond Boeser, names like Sam Bennett, Ryan Donato, and Jack Roslovic appear.

Assuming that one of Marner, Rantanen, or Ehlers signs with their current team, that would leave two names ahead of Boeser on the list of the most attractive free agents. Only two teams will have their impact forward needs filled, leaving more than a few likely to be in scramble mode and looking to make a splash any way they can.

And of course, all it takes is two teams to create a bidding war for Boeser’s services. While he’s only scored 40 goals once in his career, Boeser earned the tag of “playoff performer” for his impact during the Canucks’ playoff run last season, and that carries weight with NHL teams. 40 goal scorers get paid, and 40 goal scorers who can do it in the playoffs definitely get paid. Boeser’s been around a 25-30 goal pace for most of his career, and while his health has always been an issue, he’s been relatively healthy the past two seasons. There will be plenty of interest.

We also haven’t even mentioned that with the NHL salary cap going up, teams are going to have even more cap space to play with, and the thought of fitting Boeser into their salary cap picture will be more realistic for an increased number of teams, thus expanding Boeser’s list of potential suitors even more.

If Jake Guentzel got 7 years at $9 million in tax-free Tampa Bay just last summer, what might Boeser get on the open market? One has to think with the certainty of the cap going up and the other players available that we mentioned above, that Boeser is looking at a potential offer of at least 7 years at $8 million. Maybe you think that’s high.

Let’s say 7 years at $7.5 million. That’s still $52.5 million in total. Meaning that the Canucks, at the very least, are asking Boeser to leave $12.5 million on the table with their latest contract offer.

At the very least.

There is still reportedly one more offer to come from the Canucks, and it will be interesting to see if they’re willing to budge on the term, which appears to be the main sticking point at this juncture.

AFP Analytics projects a seven-year contract at $8.6 million for Boeser. And while we think that’s potentially on the high end, it does illustrate the main point here — that Boeser is almost certainly going to sign for more than the $40 million the Canucks offered.

The Canucks have until Friday, March 7th to decide if they’ll keep Boeser or if they’ll trade him ahead of the deadline.

What do you think Boeser will sign for? Do you think it should be the Canucks that offer it to him? Let us know in the comments section below!

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