Sam and Diane. Jim and Pam. The Vancouver Canucks and Tom Willander?

Yes, the Canucks’ desire to sign their top defensive prospect after his NCAA season ended in the Frozen Four Finals have turned into a bit of a ‘will they, won’t they.’

But, like those aforementioned TV examples, we’re pretty sure this bit of drama will still end with the two sides getting together. A late-breaking report on Monday night said as much, with Frank Seravalli at first claiming the Canucks and Willander’s camp had “an agreement in place,” something he later backtracked into a mere “confident that this will end in an agreement.”

We, like many of you, will save our fullest breath of relief until the ink actually hits the contract. But it is certainly starting to sound more and more like Willander will begin his career with Vancouver as of the start of the 2025/26 season. Or, perhaps we should amend that to “will attempt to begin his career with the Canucks.” We will point out at this point that Willander is just 20 years old, and won’t hit 21 until next February. He’ll be stepping directly out of college hockey without the typical benefit of a late-season audition or AHL playoff run.
The hype is real. But Willander’s place on the 2025/26 Canucks roster is still far from certain.

So, today we aim to look at that question, specifically: how much do we think Willander will actually play in 2025/26? And, if he’s not playing, who’s likely to be taking those minutes instead?

We’ll begin with a comment on Willander’s general NHL-readiness. He’s long been described as a ‘complete’ prospect with an already well-rounded game that is highlighted by skating ability and an amount of steadiness well beyond his years. Many scouts have described him as having the sort of game that tends to translate more immediately into the big leagues – nothing flashy or extravagant, just good, smart, consistent hockey.

We wrote earlier in the year about the history of the Boston University program, and its propensity for sending its top-flight D prospects directly into the NHL. Matt Grzelcyk, Charlie McAvoy, Dante Fabbro, Alex Vlasic, and super-rookie Lane Hutson represent an incredibly strong recent track record, and each of them was able to transition from college to the NHL with minimal need for seasoning in the minors.

All indications are that Willander will arrive with a similar level of preparedness.

But then, Willander himself being ready isn’t the be-all and end-all here. Just because a prospect is ready for NHL minutes doesn’t necessarily mean that someone else won’t deserve those minutes more.

For the first time in a long time, the Canucks’ blueline feels mostly settled. It is widely assumed that they’ll skate into the 2025/26 with a well-defined top-four of Quinn Hughes, Filip Hronek, Marcus Pettersson, and Tyler Myers, with the latter-most’s age being the only real question mark at this point.

Behind that set, most are now pretty set on the younger Elias Pettersson joining the team on a full-time basis. To be perfectly honest, he already has. Even with a healthy blueline, EP25 has been tough to knock out of the lineup, and at this point it’d be a little shocking if he didn’t open up 2025/26 as the team’s 3LD.

That would, theoretically, leave the 3RD spot open for Willander. But that is not to say he won’t have competition.

The most obvious at this immediate moment is Victor Mancini. Somewhat ironically, Mancini had a tough night on Monday, the same day that all this Willander-related drama was going down. Mancini took three minor penalties against the San Jose Sharks…but still played the fourth-most minutes on the Canucks’ blueline.

Penalties aside, he’s impressed in most of his NHL time since being acquired from the New York Rangers in the JT Miller trade. And at the age of 22, Mancini is at the stage where getting NHL minutes is increasingly important to a player’s development.

It’s not anywhere near do-or-die for Mancini. He was still an AHL rookie this season, and will maintain his waiver-exempt status for next year, so he’s perfectly capable of being sent down to Abbotsford whenever the Canucks would like. But make no mistake – the Canucks see Mancini as a valid piece of their blueline future, and they’d like him to play as many NHL minutes as possible in 2025/26.

That does put Mancini in direct competition with Willander for minutes, and that competition probably begins as soon as Training Camp 2025. On that note, Willander has some reason to worry, as Mancini has a history of strong camps. He very nearly made the Rangers outright as a rookie pro this year, just two years separated from being drafted in the fifth round. Another camp like that, and Mancini stands a good chance of cracking the Canucks’ opening night lineup ahead of Willander.

One thing we’re pretty sure of: Willander and Mancini won’t be on the Canucks’ roster at the same time very often in 2025/26, barring injuries. There’s just no need for either player to spend much time in the pressbox; not with free demotion to Abbotsford always a possibility. We could end up in a bit of a Willander/Mancini shuffle, with each of them earning intermittent stints at 3RD while the other goes back to Abbotsford to play big minutes.

How can Willander avoid this? Simple. Just play consistently better than Mancini from camp onward. Same goes for Mancini in vice-versa.

But these two might not be each other’s only competition. Another name to keep in mind is Derek Forbort.

Forbort has been an absolute warrior for the Canucks down the stretch in 2024/25. He’s become the centrepiece of a dominant penalty kill, he’s covered injuries with aplomb, and he’s stuck up for his teammates without fail. There are many, including no doubt some in the Vancouver front office, who would like to see Forbort re-signed, so long as he is willing.

Something else Forbort did this season was demonstrate an ability to play on his off-side, especially in conjunction with Elias Pettersson. Those two shared bottom-pairing minutes fairly consistently through the season’s final months, and both played well enough on the right to suggest that they could definitely keep that pair rolling right into 2024/25. In fact, we’d go as far as to say that if Forbort is re-signed, he instantly moves ahead of both Willander and Mancini in the overall, top-six blueline depth chart, regardless of handedness – and gives the both of them one more hurdle to clear in camp.

Of course Forbort, being a veteran, is also someone the Canucks should feel more comfortable giving pressbox duty, as they did frequently in the early going of 2024/25. Forbort could re-sign and Willander could still be in the opening night lineup, it just increases the difficulty level.

There is also the high probability that the Canucks sign at least one more veteran defender to fill out that 7/8^th D role. Maybe it’s Noah Juulsen again, maybe it’s a free agent from outside the organization. But we have a feeling that, even with Forbort in the mix, the team will want at least one more blueliner with experience. If Forbort doesn’t re-sign, they might want two.

Which, naturally, means more competition. But more competition isn’t really a bad thing. To be blunt, if Willander can’t outcompete a Juulsen-type for NHL minutes next season, then maybe he’s not ready for those NHL minutes, and would be better served developing in Abbotsford.

It all remains to be seen, and we have little way of knowing how it will shake out until the steel actually hits the ice in September.

For now, suffice it to say that Willander definitely have a path to playing for the Canucks right away in 2025/26 – but not an uncontested path.