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Utica Comets versus Oklahoma City Barons – AHL Playoff Series Preview
With almost
five days of rest, the Utica Comets are ready to start their second round of the
playoffs against Edmonton’s affiliate the Oklahoma City Barons. These two teams have only faced each other
twice in the regular season and the results were quite close.
five days of rest, the Utica Comets are ready to start their second round of the
playoffs against Edmonton’s affiliate the Oklahoma City Barons. These two teams have only faced each other
twice in the regular season and the results were quite close.
In the
first round the Comets were able to pepper the Chicago Goaltender with shots,
who stood on his head, and were able to win their first round in an
exhilarating match up. The second round
looks to see the Comets face another formidable opponent.
first round the Comets were able to pepper the Chicago Goaltender with shots,
who stood on his head, and were able to win their first round in an
exhilarating match up. The second round
looks to see the Comets face another formidable opponent.
Let us see
how they match up after the jump.
how they match up after the jump.
Schedule
Keeping
consistent with the theme of reducing operating costs, in the second round
best-of-seven series in the AHL the format is 2-3-2 meaning that the Comets
have home-ice advantage in the first 2 and (if required) the last two games of
the series. The first game started
Thursday night and will play back-to-back on Friday. Both teams then travel to Oklahoma City,
before returning back to Utica for 2 more games.
consistent with the theme of reducing operating costs, in the second round
best-of-seven series in the AHL the format is 2-3-2 meaning that the Comets
have home-ice advantage in the first 2 and (if required) the last two games of
the series. The first game started
Thursday night and will play back-to-back on Friday. Both teams then travel to Oklahoma City,
before returning back to Utica for 2 more games.
One interesting
side effect of this format is that if the series only goes to five games the
lesser team is eligible to more games of revenue than the higher seed. If the series goes the full seven games the
Comets maintain the edge in having one more home-ice game thanks to their
higher ranking.
side effect of this format is that if the series only goes to five games the
lesser team is eligible to more games of revenue than the higher seed. If the series goes the full seven games the
Comets maintain the edge in having one more home-ice game thanks to their
higher ranking.
Game 1 happened last night, with the Comets dropping one of the longest games in AHL history 2-1 in quadruple overtime. Jacob Markstrom made 65 saves in the loss.
Team Statistics
The
Oklahoma City Barons finished in 6th place in the AHL’s Western
Conference with 89 points and a record of 41-27-5-3. They earned 16 less points and 6 less wins
than the Comets over 76 games. OKC
really struggled at the end of their season as they lost 15 games in the last third of the year and now they are the lowest seed remaining in the playoffs. But as a regular reader of this blog you know
that standings alone do a poor job of explaining the difference between the
teams.
Oklahoma City Barons finished in 6th place in the AHL’s Western
Conference with 89 points and a record of 41-27-5-3. They earned 16 less points and 6 less wins
than the Comets over 76 games. OKC
really struggled at the end of their season as they lost 15 games in the last third of the year and now they are the lowest seed remaining in the playoffs. But as a regular reader of this blog you know
that standings alone do a poor job of explaining the difference between the
teams.
OKC has
been a better goal scoring team this year largely in part to having a better
shooting percentage. The opposite of
that the Comets have been much better at preventing goals, largely thanks to
their goaltender. In terms of shot
generation, the Comets are slightly better and that gap only widens when you look at
their ability to suppress shots.
been a better goal scoring team this year largely in part to having a better
shooting percentage. The opposite of
that the Comets have been much better at preventing goals, largely thanks to
their goaltender. In terms of shot
generation, the Comets are slightly better and that gap only widens when you look at
their ability to suppress shots.
Head to
head over the season the Comets have maintained a much larger gap in possession
than Oklahoma City, in this stat alone the Comets are considered elite while
OKC is below-average. But the season
average is not good enough, we can plot how the teams have been trending:
head over the season the Comets have maintained a much larger gap in possession
than Oklahoma City, in this stat alone the Comets are considered elite while
OKC is below-average. But the season
average is not good enough, we can plot how the teams have been trending:
The picture
still looks in favour for the Comets, the started the season and finished the
season better than OKC but the middle portion feels is a bit worrisome. On the Comets end this can be explained by
their lack of defence corps due to call ups to Vancouver. For this series the Comets maintain the edge
they just have to hope the Barons are not able to repeat their success from
the same period the Comets were down.
still looks in favour for the Comets, the started the season and finished the
season better than OKC but the middle portion feels is a bit worrisome. On the Comets end this can be explained by
their lack of defence corps due to call ups to Vancouver. For this series the Comets maintain the edge
they just have to hope the Barons are not able to repeat their success from
the same period the Comets were down.
2014/15
Season Head-to-Head
The Comets
and OKC have only faced each other twice this season with the Comets losing the
first game in OT and winning the second game with a score of 4-2. The rule of thumb we know here at Canucks
Army is that goal differential in a sample size of 2 games is not good enough
to show true talent.
and OKC have only faced each other twice this season with the Comets losing the
first game in OT and winning the second game with a score of 4-2. The rule of thumb we know here at Canucks
Army is that goal differential in a sample size of 2 games is not good enough
to show true talent.
In these
two games the Comets have dominated OKC on the shot clock to the tune of 58% but this is largely
a result of a dominance performance in their second match. The first game saw the possession edge lean
towards OKC (46.51%) while the second match was nothing more than a clinic put
on by Utica (70.45%).
two games the Comets have dominated OKC on the shot clock to the tune of 58% but this is largely
a result of a dominance performance in their second match. The first game saw the possession edge lean
towards OKC (46.51%) while the second match was nothing more than a clinic put
on by Utica (70.45%).
Skaters
In the
previous piece we highlighted that one of the Comets strength is that they have
the highest number of players (13) who have scored 10+ goals. OKC has seen a similar scoring by committee
and as a result are the 7th best scoring team. OKC has two 20+ goal scorers (Andrew Miller
and Jason Williams) while an additional seven players having scored double
digits in goals.
previous piece we highlighted that one of the Comets strength is that they have
the highest number of players (13) who have scored 10+ goals. OKC has seen a similar scoring by committee
and as a result are the 7th best scoring team. OKC has two 20+ goal scorers (Andrew Miller
and Jason Williams) while an additional seven players having scored double
digits in goals.
The Comets
received some reinforcements lately.
From the ECHL is Ludwig Blomstrand, but Dane Fox was not called up as he
is rumoured to be injured. Both players
were the only U-22 players to score 30+ goals in the ECHL this season. First round picks from the CHL Jake Virtanen
and Jared McCann have joined the Comets and have been practicing but neither
are likely to see any significant ice time. Virtanen did send his first shot in
practice right through the net.
received some reinforcements lately.
From the ECHL is Ludwig Blomstrand, but Dane Fox was not called up as he
is rumoured to be injured. Both players
were the only U-22 players to score 30+ goals in the ECHL this season. First round picks from the CHL Jake Virtanen
and Jared McCann have joined the Comets and have been practicing but neither
are likely to see any significant ice time. Virtanen did send his first shot in
practice right through the net.
OKC also
received reinforcements from the CHL in top defencemen Darnell Nurse from the
Sault Ste Marie. Similar to Virtanen and
McCann is unlikely that he will see much ice time, but this could change in a
flash.
received reinforcements from the CHL in top defencemen Darnell Nurse from the
Sault Ste Marie. Similar to Virtanen and
McCann is unlikely that he will see much ice time, but this could change in a
flash.
The two
teams have some connections in that earlier in the season the Comets traded
Will Acton for Kellan Lain. Lain injured
his wrist after playing in two games and has not yet returned and is not likely
to return. Acton has recently been
skating again after bein injured himself.
teams have some connections in that earlier in the season the Comets traded
Will Acton for Kellan Lain. Lain injured
his wrist after playing in two games and has not yet returned and is not likely
to return. Acton has recently been
skating again after bein injured himself.
Another
injured player that is likely to return to the Comets is Andrey Pedan, who
suffered a concussion in a fight earlier this year. Pedan has been seen skating and practicing
with the Comets.
injured player that is likely to return to the Comets is Andrey Pedan, who
suffered a concussion in a fight earlier this year. Pedan has been seen skating and practicing
with the Comets.
Goaltenders
Goaltending
for the Comets has been a strong suit all year.
Jacob Markstrom continues to post another elite AHL performance. In the first round of the playoffs, Markstrom
was decent. He definitely did not hurt the team playing just above league
average.
for the Comets has been a strong suit all year.
Jacob Markstrom continues to post another elite AHL performance. In the first round of the playoffs, Markstrom
was decent. He definitely did not hurt the team playing just above league
average.
The OKC
have split their goaltenders, both in the regular season and the first round,
between the younger Laurent Brossoit and the AHL veteran Richard Bachman. Both goaltenders have shown to be near equal
talent in the regular season but one bad game from Brossoit in game 2 had him
pulled and Richard Bachman is currently the front runner on the Comets.
have split their goaltenders, both in the regular season and the first round,
between the younger Laurent Brossoit and the AHL veteran Richard Bachman. Both goaltenders have shown to be near equal
talent in the regular season but one bad game from Brossoit in game 2 had him
pulled and Richard Bachman is currently the front runner on the Comets.
If
Markstrom continues to play like his self all year, then the Comets should have the
edge here.
Markstrom continues to play like his self all year, then the Comets should have the
edge here.
Special
Teams
The one
major area that the Comets are going to struggle is in special teams. Over the regular season OKC has posted a the
4th best power-play and penalty kill, even besting the Comets on
their real good penalty kill. We are not
able to isolate shots to special teams so we cannot tell if this is a result of
their process or if they are receiving the better percentages.
major area that the Comets are going to struggle is in special teams. Over the regular season OKC has posted a the
4th best power-play and penalty kill, even besting the Comets on
their real good penalty kill. We are not
able to isolate shots to special teams so we cannot tell if this is a result of
their process or if they are receiving the better percentages.
Either way,
the Comets need to avoid penalties the best they can.
the Comets need to avoid penalties the best they can.
Last Round
Oklahoma City swept Florida’s affiliate, the 3rd ranked San Antonio Rampage, in the first round. The While the series was a sweep OKC was outplayed in the first two games but controlled the game in the third. Their results came largely from their goaltenders, specifically Richard Bachman who was near perfect in one and a half games.
Likely
Outcome
Here’s how
UticaComets.com presents how their team will win:
UticaComets.com presents how their team will win:
My
assessment is that the Comets appear to be the better team in most facets. There are the better possession team, they can
generate and suppress shots at a higher rate, they have the better forward
depth, a better defence corps, a better top goalie and they have been the
better team in their two-game match up.
assessment is that the Comets appear to be the better team in most facets. There are the better possession team, they can
generate and suppress shots at a higher rate, they have the better forward
depth, a better defence corps, a better top goalie and they have been the
better team in their two-game match up.
OKC is able
to match with Utica by having the better special teams, and having a goaltender
combo that is better than Joacim Eriksson.
to match with Utica by having the better special teams, and having a goaltender
combo that is better than Joacim Eriksson.
It’s not
the most exciting prediction, the edge in this series is far and away towards
the Comets but in a best-of-seven series the Comets have to be on the better
side of good luck. Utica was able to
ride out its bad percentages in the first round; in the second they have to
hope their shooting variance swings towards the mean and the OKC goaltenders
don’t stand on their heads. The Comets should prevail, but it will be a tough matchup.
the most exciting prediction, the edge in this series is far and away towards
the Comets but in a best-of-seven series the Comets have to be on the better
side of good luck. Utica was able to
ride out its bad percentages in the first round; in the second they have to
hope their shooting variance swings towards the mean and the OKC goaltenders
don’t stand on their heads. The Comets should prevail, but it will be a tough matchup.
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