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Nearly a month ago we previewed what to expect during the AHL Calder Cup final between the Utica Comets and the Manchester Monarchs.  This was the 3rd time in Canucks franchise history that their AHL farm team went to the AHL finals and much like the parent club, it has yet to win.
Before the finals, the Comets had been a good possession team, backed by good goaltending with below average offence.  In our preview, we noted that the Manchester Monarchs were the one team the Comets wished to avoid given that they have been more dominant in nearly all measurable facets of the game.  
Since that preview and the series, CanucksArmy has been over-taken by events surrounding the draft, trades, and free agency.  It’s too bad that the AHL final was inexplicably cancelled at the last minute for no reason, so here’s our deep dive of what likely would have happened.  

Possession

The Utica Comets were strongly outplayed in this series, while they did have two games with positive possession numbers (partly fueled by score and series effects), they also had two sub-30% games.  The series possession numbers were well in favour on the Manchester Monarchs.
These numbers were reflected in their inability to generate much in terms of shots or scoring chances against Manchester.  In just 5 games the Monarchs were averaging 33.4 shots to the Comets’ 27.4.
Utica’s inability to generate offence or suppress the Monarchs was reflected in their even-strength scoring.  In the series, the Comets were out-scored at even-strength to the tune of  8 to 10.  The third game saw the Comets out-score the Monarchs (their only victory) while games 2 and 5 saw equal number of ES goals.  
On the special teams side of things, the Comets continued to be out-scored to the tune of 2 to 5.  Interestingly enough Utica was on the penalty kill more than they were on the power play (20 vs 17 opportunities) which is rare to see in a team that is both trailing a game let alone a series.  
To compound the effects against them the Comets found their Special-Team Index to be a paltry 86.76% thanks to an 11.76% powerplay and a 75% penalty kill.  Their power play has normally been below average, but it was rare to see Utica’s strong penalty kill falter them this badly.  Their inability to score or stop scoring was a common trend in the series.
Oddly enough, given that the Comets lost the first two games in overtime and won the third game, the they could have easily found them up in the series 3-0 had the shooting percentages gone their way and the ending likely would have been very different.

Goaltenders

Utica’s PDO in the series shows how much the shooting percentage did not work in their favour.  While the first three games were averaging normal variance, the series itself dipped towards the trailing 2 games.  The Comets shot more than a full percentage point below average at 7.3% while their goaltender was below average at .910, six-tenths of a percentage point below normal.
Goaltending became an interesting statistical point in this series.  Supposedly the strong point in the Comets game, as Markstrom had posted a .931 through the first three series it did not work ot this way at all.  
The Monarch’s starting goaltender, Jean-Francois Berube, posted a .922 through the first three games including three straight Quality Starts.  He was hurt part way through the third game and the backup (who had been statistically strong in the regular season) Patrik Bartosak took over and posted a .930 in the final three games.  
Jacob Markstrom posted a .907 in this series, which was a disappointing performance for himself given how strong he’d been all regular season and playoffs.  That performance was almost a full percentage point below AHL average, was nearly 3% lower than his performance in the first 3 rounds and it dropped his playoff save percentage down to .925.
Markstrom has a history of performing well below average in high-stakes tournaments and games through his career.  He was lauded for having “fixed” his technique in the playoffs, but unfortunately he could not live up to that praise in the final round and couldn’t save Utica’s season.

Players

The ability to generate offence had held the Comets back through the playoffs.  Despite that, a few of the Canucks’ prospects stood out in this series.  Alex Grenier and Sven Bartschi continued to be at the top of the prospect scoring leaderboard as they had all playoffs.  Peter Andersson had a rare appearance on the scoresheet with three assists.
Leading the way from the veterans was Cal O’Reilly who had finally managed to score a few goals after having lead the entire playoffs in points without a single goal.  Bobby Sanguinetti was right behind him as a strong contributor – it is too bad to see those two leave the organization.  
These same four players lead the Comets in scoring over the entire playoffs.  O’Reilly had 19 points in 23 games, Baertschi had 15 points in 21, Grenier had 15 in 23 and Sanguinetti had 14 in 23.  Surprisingly right behind them was Alex Friesen and Brendan Gaunce who gave Utica strong performances in the earlier rounds.
Our KWings Insiderrr, Sarah Hobday, was at 4 of the 5 Comets games and had this to say about Games 1 & 2 :
Game 1 – 6 June 2015:
  • With the 6pm game start only the
    scratched players skated in the morning. The rest of the team was at the
    arena to play some two-touch and for team meetings.
  • Very slow Utica start – cup jitters maybe.
  • In Grenier’s second shift of the game he got manhandled like I’ve never seen before.
  • In Virtanen’s second shift he got leveled twice by a Monarch one right
    after the other – then he collided hard with Baertschi in front of the
    Monarchs goalie.
  • A bit of a shaky start for Markstrom. He was very lucky several times early in the game where the Monarchs should have scored.
  • The Comets first PP unit was led by Grenier, Conacher, and Baertschi.
    They lost control early and gave the Monarchs a scoring chance.
  • Conacher kept trying to start fights all night – getting into Monarchs faces and chirping a lot.
  • The Comets second PP unit was led by Friesen, Gaunce, and Virtanen. They didn’t produce any good scoring chances.
  • Friesen was also chirping all night and trying to start fights.
  • At the 10 minute mark in the 1st Markstrom had some crazy puck luck
    with several quality Monarchs scoring chances but somehow the puck
    stayed out of the net.
  • Utica was very strong on the 1st and 2nd PK of the game.
  • Gorgeous PP goal by Baertschi set up by a great pass from Grenier. Baertschi had a wide open net.
  • I wish Shinkaruk played more physical and would hit guys. He backed off checks too often tonight.
  • Utica had a much stronger start to the 2nd period.
  • Virtanen is extremely strong with the puck and hard to stop once he gets going.
  • At the 9 1/2 minute mark of the 2nd period Baertschi left for the
    locker room with the athletic trainer. He returned to the bench for the
    3rd period but did not play another shift in the game. He was not on the
    bench in OT.
  • Markstrom looked much better in the 2nd period with tracking the puck and controlling rebounds.
  • Virtanen reminds me of a faster/stronger version of Dane Fox. They look
    very similar with their skating style, stride, and look. Like Fox,
    Virtanen should work on keeping his head up when he gets going. It
    worries me seeing guys skate with their heads down (especially when they
    do not have the puck).
  • 11 minutes into the 2nd Markstrom had even more puck luck when he was caught off balance and the Monarchs almost scored.
  • Grenier had a breakaway with 2:20 left in the 2nd but was stopped by a
    quick glove hand on the Monarchs goalie. Grenier showed his improved
    speed on this breakaway.
  • Early in the 3rd
    period Andersson took a really bad penalty for closing his hand on the
    puck. Utica’s PK unit was looking very strong until giving up that PP
    goal.
  • Conacher’s goal was weak – Comets lucked out there.
  • With Baertschi out for half the game Green was rolling lines and putting different players in Baertschi’s spot.
  • Gaunce stepped up his game since the last round. Gaunce got more ice time with Baertschi out.
  • Virtanen only played 1 or 2 shifts in the 3rd period and did not play in OT.
  • Overall Utica was outplayed in every aspect in Game 1. This was the
    worst Utica playoff game I have seen. Markstrom was the only reason
    Utica stayed in this game.
Game 2 – 7 June 2015:
  • Hamilton was a healthy scratch. LaBate skated in warmups but was a
    game-time scratch. Jensen took Hamilton’s place in the lineup.
  • Baertschi back in the lineup playing regular shifts.
  • Strong start by Utica in the 1st period.
  • Shinkaruk must have read my notes last night as he was a completely
    different player tonight. Shinkaruk was finishing checks and playing
    more physical tonight.
  • Virtanen skated on the 4th
    line tonight. My guess is that it was because how often he was
    manhandled in Game 1 proving him mostly ineffective. Manchester is the
    biggest team he has been up against in the playoffs with Utica.
  • The 1st period was very chippy and physical.
  • The 1st PP for Utica was a poor effort. The 2nd PP of the game was a
    much better effort until Grenier took a bad penalty 50 seconds into
    their PP. Utica’s PK (after this 4 on 4) was very strong.
  • The 2nd PK for Utica was also strong though with 14 seconds left Manchester scored a great goal on an angle.
  • Gorgeous goal by Jensen – he looked so happy in his celebration.
  • Strong start to the 2nd period for Utica.
  • Markstrom playing very well with better puck tracking and rebound control then last night.
  • At the 7 1/2 minute mark in the 2nd period Jensen blocked a hard shot
    and limped to the bench. He only missed 1 shift before he was back on
    the ice.
  • 2nd period settled down and was much cleaner with less shoving matches after whistles.
  • Jensen looked really good in his first game back – proved he was worthy of his spot in the lineup.
  • Poor game by Clendening. Worst game I have seen him play in these
    playoffs. Clendening made too many mistakes throughout the game.
  • Friesen playing smarter tonight and not taking cheap shots like last night.
  • Markstrom really likes to talk to officials – noticed that more tonight then in other games.
  • With 1 minute left in the 2nd period Baertschi leveled a Monarchs player with a great check – caught him off guard.
  • Much better overall game by Shinkaruk tonight.
  • Virtanen had a stronger game tonight as well. At one point in the 2nd
    period he took out 2 Monarchs with one move at the blue line.
  • Jensen was on fire in the 3rd period – looking great with his speed and jumping up into plays more often.
  • Sanguinetti had another solid game. Nothing really stood out good or bad.
  • Markstrom was incredible in the 3rd period and the beginning of OT. So many great saves.
  • Utica’s PK to start OT was very strong.- Overall Utica played much better in Game 2. Very tight and close game with both team’s deserving of the win.
And on Games 4 & 5 :
Game 4:
  • Virtanen is still sick and did not play tonight.
  • LaBate skated in warmups but was a scratch at game time.
  • 75 seconds into the 1st Clendening was caught out of position. Grenier
    quickly jumped back and looked comfortable in front of Markstrom.
  • Clendening looked even worse in his second shift – was slow and out of position again.
  • Lots of bad blood in this series. Big fight 4:38 in with all on ice skaters involved.
  • 8 minutes into the 1st Clendening was checked head first into the boards but did not miss a shift afterwards.
  • 9 1/2 minutes into the 1st Shinkaruk had several great scoring chances but couldn’t bury it.
  • First Monarchs goal was way too easy. Markstrom went down early and the Monarchs had a wide open net to hit.
  • The Monarchs second goal was due to a turnover by Grenier. The Monarchs
    were all over Grenier and he couldn’t get the puck out of the zone. The
    Monarchs stole the puck and then were able to score on Markstrom.
  • With the Monarchs scoring twice in 32 seconds the Comets used their
    timeout. The Comets responded and scored 14 minutes into the 1st. This
    goal was all thanks to a lot of hard work and puck control by Shinkaruk.
  • The game was getting uglier and uglier with more shoving matches after whistles.
  • Beauty of a second goal for the Comets with Baertschi scoring on the PP.
  • The first 6 minutes of the 2nd period was all Monarchs. Starting to
    look more like Game 1 with how dominating the Monarchs are.
  • The first two penalty kills of the 2nd were bad and gave the Monarchs
    too many scoring chances. With that many shots and not clearing the zone
    the Monarchs were bound to score.
  • The Comets were struggling in all areas in the 2nd period – just like in Game 1.
  • A lot of puck luck again tonight for Markstrom. Defensemen are not helping Markstrom out too much.
  • The Comets had 1:20 of a 5 on 3 PP late in the 2nd with Baertschi, Grenier, and Conacher having some good scoring chances.
  • With all the special teams play in the 2nd period Jensen only had 2 shifts.
  • At the start of the 3rd period Grenier was getting frustrated with the
    game and was getting more testy. I have never seen Grenier play like
    this in his pro career. He took some cheap shots after plays and got a
    penalty as a result.
  • Green was rolling lines more in the 3rd to try to spark the team.
  • Markstrom got pulled after the Monarchs 6th goal.
  • The 3rd period settled down with minimal scuffles after whistles.
  • Shinkaruk and Gaunce were the best players on the ice all night for the Comets. They both had strong games.
  • Much more ice time for Jensen in the 3rd.
Game 5:
  • Virtanen is still sick and did not play tonight. Unfortunate that
    Virtanen was sick the last 3 games of the series and unable to play.
    Would have been interesting to see how he handled himself in these
    games.
  • LaBate skated in warmups but was a scratch at game time.
  • The Monarchs dominated the game early on.
  • 4 minutes into the game the Comets woke up and took back control of the game. The Comets had several quality scoring chances.
  • The Monarchs 2nd goal was a rocket – Markstrom had no chance.
  • After the Monarchs 3rd goal was disallowed after review the Utica fans
    went nuts and the Comets played with tons of energy and jump the next
    several minutes.
  • Much cleaner 1st period then in the last game.
  • Grenier was back to his usual game self tonight. Grenier was skating
    smarter and faster. He had several quality scoring chances.
  • The Monarchs had control of the first 5 minutes of the 2nd period before the Comets took back control.
  • Shinkaruk had a very strong game again – he even blocked several shots tonight.
  • 12 minutes into the 2nd period Grenier had a great shift. He won a
    faceoff and got a nice shot on goal off quick. Unfortunately his stick
    snapped. Grenier then laid out a thunderous check on a Monarch before
    finishing his shift.
  • 15 minutes into the 2nd
    Markstrom had some more great puck luck. Great speed by Markstrom in
    moving side-to-side and getting back up.
  • Lots of hustle and jump in Shinkaruk tonight. Very impressed by his play again tonight.
  • Better game tonight by Clendening – back to his usual self after a bad showing last night.
  • The Comets had an overall much better game tonight and back to their
    usual game plan and play. The team responded after the disappointing
    loss last night.
  • The Monarchs were the overall
    better team in this series and the Comets never seemed to be able to
    catch up. The Monarchs goalie made some great saves and was the
    difference maker tonight.
  • Utica fans stood for the final 3 minutes of the game and chanting “Lets Go Comets.”
  • Even with the final buzzer and the Monarchs celebrating the win the
    fans kept chanting “Lets Go Comets” for several minutes before chanting
    “Thank You Comets.” The Comets all saluted the fans before leaving the
    ice.

Conclusion

It is little surprising to see how this series ended.  The Comets were outplayed by a much stronger team and they did not receive any luck to help them.  Utica, however, can be proud of how they performed all year, and at least had the moral victory of not being swept.  
This officially ends our Comets year, and it was quite a pleasant surprise to see the turnaround from the year before.  The Comets went from a team who couldn’t make the playoffs to a top-3 possession team that lead the league for most of the year.  
The AHL is so hard to predict – parity is even tighter than in the NHL, and rosters see huge turnover year to year.  It is nearly impossible to predict how the Comets will perform in 2015-2016, but we will be there following them on the way.  
The Comets continue to change by the removal of veterans such as Cal O’Reilly, Bobby Sanguinetti, Brandon DeFazio, Jacob Markstrom, and Joacim Eriksson.  Replacing them will be the likes of Richard Bachman, Taylor Fedun and Blair Jones.  Many familiar names have been re-signed from Canucks prospects of Alex Friesen, Alex Grenier, Alex Biega and more, while the Comets continue to stock their own players in Wacey Hamilton, Carter Bancks, and Mike Zalewski.
It was an excellent year for development of prospects as many players started to earn more and more ice time and many pundits like to celebrate they were learning how to win from veterans.  We will dig deeper into their entire year in review later this summer.
So for now …