When pressed about his strategy heading into the 2016 NHL Entry Draft in June, Canucks GM Jim Benning threw caution to the wind and demonstrated no interest in keeping his intentions close to the vest: he wanted a defenceman, and unless he was picking in the top three, that’s likely what he’d be getting.

We here at Canucks Army are big fans of any number of hockey related things – three among them are prospects, stats, and making predictions. With that, I thought it would be plenty of fun looking at some prospects and their stats and predicting which ones Jim Benning might have an interest in.

Here are the four defencemen that Jim Benning and the Canucks Should consider the top of the 2016 NHL draft.

Even though there are still 11 games to go on the Canucks’ calendar, everyone involved has a relatively good idea of what their plans are going into the draft. The Canucks hovered at about 23rd overall for a month, before taking a recent dive down as far as 27th. They could conceivably get as low as 28th or even 29th if Edmonton and Winnipeg put a couple of wins together. Or they could pull themselves up towards 20th if they string some wins together themselves – a tough idea to buy for a team that hasn’t won three games in a row all season.

There’s also the lottery to consider. With three lotteries this year (for the first, second, and third overall spots), they’ve actually got a reasonable shot at picking at any position in the top ten.

We know that if the Canucks win a lottery pick, they won’t be going off the board: Jim Benning will select Auston Matthews at number one, or one of those Finns at number two and three.

“I believe there’s separation. I believe those guys at the top end, Matthews and the two Finns, they have a chance to be special players in the NHL. They have the size, the strength, the skill, so I think those top three guys, and then after that, for me, there’s the next group.”

Outside of the lottery picks, things open up a little. There are varying opinions on the order in which they will go, but there is a decent amount of consensus that these players are the four best defencemen available this year. Olli Juolevi and Jakob Chychrun are generally considered the top two, with Mikhail Sergachev not far behind – they should all be gone in the top ten. More recently, Jake Bean of the WHL has worked his way into the conversation as a top ten pick.

Let’s take a closer look at each of these blueliners and get to know them a little better. As we gear up towards the draft, you’ll be hearing more and more about them, so you might as well get primed on the facts now.

Jakob Chychrun

Not long ago, Jakob Chychrun was considered the undisputed top defenceman of his draft class. In fact, prior to the previous draft, it didn’t seem inconceivable that he might challenge Matthews for the first spot.

The mighty defender has fallen considerably since that point – he’s no longer even a lock for the top five. In fact, in many rankings, he’s no longer the best defenceman available, having occasionally been surpassed by Juolevi, and sometimes even by Sergachev. Even so, he retains a fair bit of notoriety as a result being so highly regarded at the outset of the season.

Chychrun’s greatest strengths are his hockey sense and his skating ability. He processes the game at a level above most other players, with the added benefit of having speed to burn. On top of that, he has full on man strength at the age of 17 and is overwhelming to deal with in the corners. Chychrun is well rounded in all other areas, and his awareness in the defensive zone is as highly regarded as it is in the offensive zone.

ISS	Hockey Prospect	McKeen’s	Future Considerations	Button	McKenzie	Cox	Average
6	7	7	4	7	5	7	6.1

Olli Juolevi

The player most likely to threaten Chychrun as the first defenceman to go at the draft is Finnish-born Olli Juolevi. In fact, he’s already surpassed Chychrun on roughly half the rankings. Part of this will be owed to Juolevi’s very strong showing with the Finnish U20 team that won gold on home ice at the most recent World Junior Championships.

Juolevi’s strengths are of the offensive variety. He’s a terrific skater and puck handler who makes blueline-to-blueline transitions look quick and effortless. He is lauded above all else for his playmaking ability, derived from excellent vision and elite-level passing. He is an important cog in a London Knights’ power play that is clicking at 28.8 per cent, best in the OHL (though that power play runs primarily through Mitch Marner and Christian Dvorak).

Juolevi is also responsible is his own end, as his positioning is usually impeccable, his backwards skating is top notch, and his stick work is impressive, making him adept at handling one-on-one encounters. He has had problems handling larger forwards in the corners, but this is the type of thing can be overcome with growth and strength training.

ISS	Hockey Prospect	McKeen’s	Future Considerations	Button	McKenzie	Cox	Average
12	5	5	12	6	7	6	7.6

Mikhail Sergachev

Just behind the other two is Windsor’s Mikhail Sergachev, a Russian-born defenceman with a cannon of a shot. The offensive-minded blueliner is in his first season in North America and has turned out some tremendous numbers so far.

Through 64 games, Sergachev has scored 15 goals and added 36 assists, giving him a total of 51 points. His 15 goals lead all OHL defencemen, as do his 36 primary points, 28 power play points and 12 power play assists. Even with all those power play points, he’s still managed to total the second most even strength points among draft eligible OHL defencemen. Sergachev has the highest statistical likelihood of NHL success among these six draft eligible defencemen, with comparables going on to become NHL regulars 88.2 per cent of the time.

Sergachev’s calling card is his slapshot, which is the reason behind his league-leading power play goal totals. His shot was rated the best in the OHL’s western conference during the 2015-16 OHL coaches poll though scouts have said that it may be the best shot CHL-wide. He has above average speed and is developing a bit of a mean streak – his style is described as aggressive and punishing, and though that is an aspect that Jim Benning might find appealing, it’s his offensive flair that the Canucks need the most.

ISS	Hockey Prospect	McKeen’s	Future Considerations	Button	McKenzie	Cox	Average
9	9	11	10	9	12	10	10.0

Jake Bean

Jake Bean of the Calgary Hitmen is the leader of the second tier of defencemen, though he has actually appeared above Sergachev in a couple of rankings and will likely be knocking on the door of the top 10.

Andy Levangie from hockeyprospect.com gave a scouting report on Bean recently to the Pipeline Shot on TSN 1260:

“He has a ton of upside. He’s a flashy player, he really can do some magical things with the puck. He does have some size concerns, people are worried whether he’s going to get much bigger and whether that size can translate. There are certain defencemen you find that drive the offence, and I really think that he is one of the drivers of the Hitmen’s offence.”

There is indeed no doubt that Bean is a driver of offensive chances: his 24 goals on the season leads all WHL defencemen and blows away all other first-time draft eligible blueliners. To go along with that, he also leads WHL defencemen in power play goals and points.

His high point totals bode well for his future projections, as 68.4 per cent of statistically similar WHL defencemen have gone on to play regularly in the NHL, with some of his most successful comparables being Scott Niedermeyer, Brian McCabe and Dan Hamhuis.

ISS	Hockey Prospect	McKeen’s	Future Considerations	Button	McKenzie	Cox	Average
21	20	10	18	19	11	15	16.3

Head to Head

Point totals among the four are distributed quite evenly – none has a particularly strong advantage in terms of primary points. Bean leads everybody in goals and the differences get a bit more compact after that.

Juolevi’s massive advantage in this category is about on par with some of the higher end talents on his team: Christian Dvorak, Mitch Marner, Matthew Tkachuk and Victor Mete all have even strength goals for percentages in the seventies. The London Knights as a whole are operating with a GF% of 63.8 per cent in all situations, having scored more goals than any other team in the OHL, in addition to allowing the least.

The statistical projections of the four defencemen favor Mikhail Sergachev for a variety of different reasons. He is the youngest of the group, born in late June. This bodes well for him, in that he can not only keep pace with his OHL peer in this group but actually surpass both of them in points per game. He has a height advantage of only a single inch, but every inch counts in a position where size is at a premium – whether that is due to bias or not.

Jake Bean also fairs very well here, largely due to having the highest production of the whole group. With slightly lower point totals, Chychrun and Juolevi lag behind just a little, with Chychrun further hurt by being the oldest of the group – though he was still only born at the end of March.

In reality, all four defencemen have an excellent chance of sticking in the NHL and becoming impact players in the near future. These projections are of course numbers based, and don’t indicate destiny. In terms of qualitative analysis, some scouts feel that Chychrun is actually the surest pick of the bunch.

So who makes the most sense for the Canucks? Well, it depends entirely on where they pick and who is available. Chychrun and Juolevi are the top two choices, and neither would look out of place as a fifth overall selection. If you’re using a fourth-overall pick on either of them, you could be taking a bit of risk in leaving an elite forward on the draft board. Still, it’s a decision that you’d get over – these aren’t players that you “settle” for, they are elite prospects.

Both Sergachev and Bean would be solid choices as you inch towards the lower portion of the top ten. There has been talk previously that Jim Benning covets both of these players, and it isn’t hard to see why: they are the two strongest in terms of scoring goals and manufacturing offence from the blueline, traits that are sorely lacking in Benning’s current defence corps.

Any of these four defencemen would be welcome additions on the Canucks roster in the future, capable of handling top pairing minutes and making large offensive contributions. It’s a little over three months until Draft Day, so start picking your favourites now. There’s a strong chance that one of these four defenders will be throwing on a Canucks jersey before too long.

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