Everything feels flat.
The Vancouver Canucks dropped their first road game of the season, losing to the Tampa Bay Lightning by a 4-1 scoreline. Questions lingering from the offseason have only gotten louder with this slow start, and with the offence faltering, there aren’t many positives that can be taken away. While it’s still early in the season, there are not a lot more games that Vancouver can afford to lose if they want to replicate the success from last year.
Here’s the loss, by the numbers.
As always, you can find our glossary guide of advanced stats here.

Game Flow

The Lightning came out firing in this one. With a 62.50 CF% advantage, the home team took it to the Canucks, recording 1.51 xGF for a 72.13 xGF%, while dominating them in scoring chances to the tune of 13-4 and an 8-3 high-danger chance lead. Vancouver was fortunate to be only down one goal by the end of the first, and that could’ve been the break that they needed to steal the game from Tampa. But, while the second saw the Canucks record a 63.89 CF% and 83.52 xGF%, it didn’t amount to anything, with Tampa able to score another in the middle frame. From there, the Lightning were able to put a damper on anything that Vancouver tried to do in terms of a comeback, seeing the third period out with a 71.75 xGF%.

Heat Map

With how this game went, the heat map is hardly a surprise. While the scoring chances were relatively low, with Vancouver having a narrow 25-22 edge in that regard, Tampa made sure that their looks were a lot more high-quality with a 15-10 lead in high-danger chances. That much is reflected in the size and placement of their hot spot in relation to Vancouver, able to get more chances in tight against Arturs Silovs. Vancouver’s hot patch wasn’t quite as dense, and its positioning showed that they couldn’t get the same kind of looks that the Lightning were able to.

Individual Advanced Stats

Corsi Champ: If only Conor Garland’s compete could be translated to the rest of the roster. The winger led the Canucks last night with a 68.00 CF%, playing across all situations and making his impact felt. Whether it was on the penalty kill, even strength, or powerplay, Garland was humming, with his forward line the second-best unit that the Canucks had to offer last night by the numbers.
Corsi Chump: Carson Soucy was tasked with playing against Tampa’s best line and unfortunately couldn’t quite hold his own. He recorded a team-worst 25.00 CF% playing against Nikita Kucherov, Jake Guentzel, and Brayden Point, the trio absolutely dominating him during their shared time on ice. While Soucy was playing, Vancouver was outshot 1-12 and out-chanced 2-9, with 7 of those chances against being high-danger. It was no wonder why Soucy posted the second-worst xGA (1.23) and xGF% (11.23) on the team.
xGF: Is it really a surprise to see Garland leading this team in xGF% as well? During his TOI, Vancouver had an 11-3 scoring chance edge, translating to a 5-2 high-danger chance advantage as well. Garland posted a 72.84 xGF% to lead the team in his expected goals share, posting the second-highest xGF of 0.92 to go along with it. Captain Quinn Hughes led the team in raw xGF, generating a 1.73 on the night and showing just what a big gap there was between first and second on the roster.
GSAx: A bounce-back performance between the pipes will cool down some of the heat on Arturs Silovs. He was much better in this game against Tampa, facing down a 3.31 xGF barrage and coming out with a 0.31 GSAx. Obviously, there’s still work to be done when it comes to his play with some of the goals being ones he should have, but Silovs was making some big stops to try and give the Canucks a chance at winning this one. His goals against came from all three danger zones, an even split amongst high, middle, and low-danger shots. Not a bad performance to say the least, especially when the team in front of him wasn’t doing him much favours.

Statistical Musings

Not just a quiet night, but a rough night: The eye test had Elias Pettersson looking a little better than in previous games, though that bar isn’t high. But what is concerning was the numbers that he was producing underneath that eye test. Pettersson usually doesn’t find himself in this position but was the team’s worst player when it came to xGA, recording a 1.54 to cleanly clear Soucy as the worst xGA on the team.
The Swede was on ice for a 3-8 high-danger chance deficit, primarily playing against Tampa’s top 6, which isn’t the best when you want your best talents competing against the opposition’s best. Pettersson got a new linemate as well, with Danton Heinen shifting next to him and DeBrusk. Suffice it to say that this trio didn’t really work out, recording a team-low 0.96 xGA along with the second-worst CF% and xGF% of any forward line.
Where is the defensive depth: Quinn Hughes has been looking great three games into the season – the problem now, is trying to figure out what’s going on with the rest of the defence corps. Noah Juulsen was the only other Canucks defenceman to finish above 50% in xGF%, while Hronek was the only other Canuck defenceman to finish above 50% in CF%. Simply put, even if it is understandable that the rest of the defence won’t be as good as the top unit, it’s not a good sign when there is such a big gap between the best defender and the rest of the team.
Bains on the top line: Arshdeep Bains made his season debut alongside JT Miller and Brock Boeser. While the trio didn’t end up producing any points, their advanced stats said that they probably should’ve been able to get on the scoreboard. Together, they recorded 66.67 CF%, 0.70 xGF, and 66.89 xGF%, all of which led the Canucks’ forward lines. It probably won’t be a long-term solution as Tocchet looks to be juggling lines more, but at least the combination looked decent in their minutes together.

As a team

CF% – 52.07% HDCF% – 43.33% xGF% – 42.47%
The Canucks got outplayed in this matchup handily. Tampa pushed them onto their back foot and from that point on, Vancouver couldn’t find their way back into the game. Yes, the second period had a good push, but the Canucks didn’t capitalize on that and instead continued to chase the game. With their best players not playing at their best, things aren’t looking the greatest on this slow start, with the clock now definitely ticking on turning this all around.
Vancouver heads into Sunrise, Florida to take on the Panthers on Thursday.
Stats provided by naturalstattrick.com
CanucksArmy! The season is HERE, and what better way to kick it off than with your crew at Greta? It’s all going down on Saturday, October 19th at CanucksArmy’s home for the fans, Greta Bar! We’ve got it all—prizes, trivia, and more to keep the energy buzzing all night. And this time, we’re doing it for a great cause, supporting the BC Mental Health Foundation. Doors open at 3PM, and you know the drill—tickets are going fast, so hit up nationgear.ca before they’re gone. This event is 19+.