Not an ideal start to the season, but not the worst either.
The
Vancouver Canucks dropped a 3-2 decision in overtime to the Philadelphia Flyers last night, marking a second-consecutive extra-time defeat. Picking up the loser point certainly make things a little more palatable, but dropping points to teams that the Canucks “should” be beating is not fun. The game looked closer to what Tocchet hockey should be, and while there weren’t the highs that the Flames game had, at least the Canucks didn’t have the lows from that matchup either in this grindfest.
Here’s the loss, by the numbers.
Game Flow
Across the entire course of the game, Vancouver was the better hockey team at 5v5. The first period saw them hold a handy 67.96 xGF% share at even strength and upped it to 76.82 xGF% in the second. That came with a 6-0 high-danger chance advantage to go along with a 14-3 scoring chance lead. From both a possession and chance generation standpoint, the Canucks were holding a good amount of the share, even if the raw values weren’t the most impressive. The thing was, the third period saw Vancouver let the Flyers back into things a little more, with the home team’s xGF% dropping to 50.69. This might have been a result of the power plays allowing Philadelphia to scoop up more momentum, but it wasn’t a strong ending to the game, which seemed to have carried onwards to overtime.
Heat Map
This is an interesting heat map. While the Canucks were outshot 31-26 last night, the scoring chances stood at 34-23 across all situations. Vancouver had plenty of opportunities to strike, especially in the first, with a 16-6 edge in chances and an 8-4 high-danger chance lead. They didn’t see nearly as much success in the second and third in that regard, with the game finishing at 12-12 high-danger chances apiece for both teams. It speaks to a pretty sound defensive game, with neither team willing to give up a whole lot of high-quality looks from the chances that they were getting. One blue lining out of this is that Vancouver was the better team at evens with a 7-2 lead in high-danger chances. All they need to do is up those numbers and start converting.
Individual Advanced Stats
Corsi Champ: Langley’s Danton Heinen has had a few great chances and has been unable to convert. Last night, the winger led the Canucks with a 72.22 CF%, recording the team’s third-best xGF% of 74.65 as a result of that possession work. The entire line with him, JT Miller and Brock Boeser were solid against the Flyers, unable to score at 5v5 but definitely getting chances. Hopefully, Heinen can find his finish, because he was getting involved on the forecheck and getting to the right spots – and the dam surely has to break.
Corsi Chump: Welcome to the Daniel Sprong experience. The Dutch winger plays F1 as if he’s Max Verstappen coasting by without touching anyone. Sprong finished the game as the Canucks’ worst Corsi man, recording a 27.27 CF% in just 6:25 TOI, a team-low. With that limited time on ice, not only did he generate the worst xGF on the team with a 0.01, but his xGF% share of 6.46 was also a team-worst for anyone who played more than 45 seconds of hockey. That xGF% share was a full 31 percent behind the next worst player on the roster. Sprong can shoot the puck – but he is also coming as advertised, as the defensive side of the puck is looking like a longer-term project this year.
xGF: The captain of the Canucks is an absolute workhorse. Quinn Hughes usually finds himself as the team leader in raw xGF, but tonight he was the team’s pacemaker in both xGF with a 1.02 and xGF% with a 78.56. Vancouver held a lopsided 12-2 scoring chance advantage with Hughes on the ice, with the high-danger chances standing at 4-1. Adding to all of this is that Hughes played more than half the game, a byproduct of Tyler Myers going down early with an injury. He’ll probably need a rest day after this performance, but it was very well earned.
GSAx: Kevin Lankinen was solid last night. While the Flyers weren’t racking up a ton of xGF, they certainly were getting shots off, and the Finn was more than equal to the test. Philadelphia posted a 2.64 xGF on the night, meaning that Lankinen finished with a 0.64 GSAx – certainly a lot better than going into the negatives. His rebound control did have some dicey moments, but there wasn’t a single goal that he really had a chance on, split evenly between a high and a middle-danger chance. It was a better performance than the first game and perhaps will see Lankinen have an extended run between the pipes.
Statistical Musings
Where Derek Forbort has a night: After posting some of the worst numbers on the team against the Flames, Derek Forbort decided to step up as soon as he played away from the healthy-scratched Vincent Desharnais. His CF% of 61.54 was the third-best amongst defencemen at even strength, while his 66.19 xGF% put him right behind Filip Hronek as the third-best defenceman in that category as well. Interestingly enough, Forbort was also the only Canucks defenceman not to be on ice for an even-strength high-danger chance against. He also only spent 3:12 minutes playing alongside Quinn Hughes, the lowest time amongst all defencemen that he was partnered with – but is it any surprise that Forbort’s best numbers came with Hughes?
The difference Garland makes: As mentioned earlier, Sprong got himself benched for a good chunk of the game thanks to some lacklustre defensive work. That meant that at evens, the Canucks needed to put another winger with Jake DeBrusk and Elias Pettersson. That ended up being Conor Garland, who made a world of difference for the former two on that line. In 3:55 TOI, the DeBrusk-Pettersson-Sprong line recorded a 33.33 CF%, 0.01 xGF, and 10.68 xGF%, all of which were team lows by a large margin. In 3:16 with Garland replacing Sprong, the units’ numbers jumped up to 55.56 CF%, 0.12 xGF, and a team-high 82.77 xGF%, Quite a difference in a pretty similar sample size.
Bottom 6 punch: This is sounding a little like some themes from last year, but the top 6 should be taking full advantage of nights when the bottom 6 is just popping. Höglander-Räty-Garland and Sherwood-Blueger-Suter were eating up their minutes against the Flyers, the former of the two lines posting the second-best CF% share on the roster, while the latter unit recording the best raw xGF on the team. They were capitalizing and making the most of their minutes, and that isn’t always a guarantee – so the bigger guns in the lineup should be trying to maximize these kinds of games. Unfortunately, that wasn’t the case last night.
As a team
CF% – 57.85% HDCF% – 50.00% xGF% – 54.24%
The bad news is that the Canucks have lost both games to start the season. The good news is that they still picked up two points out of the first two contests. It’s clear that this team hasn’t yet found their A game, but against the Flyers, they were a lot more stable than against the Flames. It’ll definitely be a process to get the kinks ironed out, especially given the personnel turnover from the previous season. There have been good performances and ones that have been of concern – but as the sample size grows, the patterns will be clearer to observe and analyze.
Vancouver gets a couple of days off before heading into Tampa Bay to take on the Lightning on Wednesday, October 15th.
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