Sometimes the storm just sweeps you off your feet.
The Vancouver Canucks dropped an overtime decision to the Carolina Hurricanes, losing 4-3 in a game where they didn’t start playing until sometime during the second period. For much of the game, the Canes were the better team, faster and outskating Vancouver whenever they had the chance. Thanks to some excellent work by Kevin Lankinen, the Canucks were able to hang around and make it interesting with a third-period push – but make no mistake, the better team won over the course of the game.
Here’s the loss, by the numbers.
Game Flow
From a quick glance at the game flow, it’s funny how apparent when the Canucks’ on-switch hit during the second period. In the first, Vancouver was only able to get a 38.46 CF% share while giving up a 36.05 xGF% on top of that. They were fortunate that Carolina wasn’t able to make them pay more in the opening frame given their sloppy start, and unfortunately that carried over into the first half of the second period. The power play did nothing to generate momentum, but after getting that big kill, Vancouver managed to start turning things around. The third period was by far their best, racking up 56.25 CF% while generating 86.17 xGF%, producing a full expected goal in the final frame while the Canes only managed 0.16 xGF. The biggest question was why the Canucks couldn’t manage to do that earlier in the game.
Heat Map
One thing that Vancouver did well last night was getting high-quality looks. Despite Carolina having a 25-23 edge in scoring chances, it was the Canucks that doubled up on them 12-6 in high-danger looks at even strength. That much is reflected in the heat map, where Vancouver had a far better hot spot than the Canes, both in a better area and deeper in colour. However, this heat map also highlights an issue that’s been present in the last couple of games – the Canucks can’t do anything on the power play. In total, Vancouver only managed 1 high-danger chance on the man advantage, which simply isn’t good enough. It’s apparent that they aren’t managing to generate much offence during the special teams from the heat map, and coupling that with the lack of momentum off power plays illustrated by the game flow, and represents a lost opportunity for this team.
Individual Advanced Stats
Corsi Champ: Quinn Hughes finds himself leading the Canucks last night in CF%, putting up 68.42 against the Canes. On ice for 2 goals against and 2 goals for, Hughes generated the most xGF on the team with 1.51 en route to a 70.61 xGF%. Vancouver saw a 15-5 edge in scoring chances during his 20:01 TOI, with a 9-3 lead in high-danger looks. The minutes that Hughes’ is on the ice for are not usually the issue – it’s what happens when he isn’t playing that’s of the concern.
Corsi Chump: This one was interesting to see. Daniel Sprong finished as the team’s worst Corsi man with a 28.57 CF%, only generating 0.14 xGF while giving up a 27.35 xGF% share. He was on ice for a 2-8 deficit in scoring chances while not being on ice for a single high-danger chance for. This was also coming with relatively sheltered minutes, matched up primarily against Carolina’s bottom 6 options. While the advanced stats didn’t favour him or his line much, Sprong didn’t stand out too badly in a negative way. He combined with Pius Suter to tie up the game while having some odd-man rushes here and there. Not bad all things considered.
xGF: For the second game in a row, Erik Brännström finds himself topping the xGF% charts. The depth defenceman recorded a 85.20 xGF% to pace the team, posting a 1.05 xGF and second-best 0.18 xGA. While the Swede was on the ice, Vancouver did not face a single high-danger chance against, while being able to record 5 high-danger chances for of their own. That’s a darn good ratio to be managing in not-so-insignificant minutes, and this was with Brännström getting dragged down for 5:31 minutes by Vincent Desharnais next to him.
GSAx: This stat won’t capture the kind of impact that Kevin Lankinen had for the Canucks to even get them a chance at the loser point last night. The Canes only managed to generate 2.56 xGF on the night, meaning that Lankinen finished with a -1.44 GSAx on the night. A big reason for this is that Carolina didn’t get many high-danger shots off, with 2 goals coming from middle-danger and 1 from low-danger. That spread likely hurt Lankinen’s metrics thanks to a lower xG from each attempt, but make no mistake – Vancouver was very fortunate to have the Finn between the pipes to get that point.
Statistical Musings
Defence needs to step up: Aside from Hughes and Brännström, the Vancouver Canucks’ defence has been underwhelming. Filip Hronek is currently being elevated heavily by Hughes – his CF% and xGF% stood at 67.86 and 56.90 last night respectively alongside the captain, with those numbers dropping to 33.33 and 13.06 without Hughes. Tyler Myers, Carson Soucy, and Vincent Desharnais were near dead-last in CF%, while Soucy produced the team’s worst xGF% of 20.98. The rough start of the season continues for most of the back end, and while Brännström has been a welcome surprise – he’s probably not a long-term solution for the Canucks’ top 4.
Streaky winger is streaky: A talking point thus far into the season is Jake DeBrusk’s lack of production. With four assists in 8 games, he hasn’t exactly produced up to expectations as a top 6 forward. That being said, DeBrusk has always been a streaky player, and these things aren’t exactly out of the ordinary. Last season, it took him 9 games before he recorded his first goal. Against the Canes, DeBrusk and the rest of his line at least produced good analytics, racking up a team-best 65.52 CF% and 69.49 xGF%. Their 1.04 xGF was by far a team-best, nearly 0.8 greater than second place. It’s going to be coming if DeBrusk and his line can continue to produce these numbers.
As a team
CF% – 49.50% HDCF% – 59.09% xGF% – 49.66%
The Canucks didn’t play a full 60 minutes and it showed in the result. The Carolina Hurricanes are probably one of the best teams that they have faced into the season, and if Vancouver wants to be serious about their contention ambitions, they need to be able to compete from the start. They’ll need the defence to step it up as well, finding the form that they displayed last year. However, with that being said, it was also encouraging to see that the Canucks were able to still keep this game within reach even with just a 30-minute effort (and thanks to Lankinen). Imagine if they could play like their third-period selves right from the start.
Vancouver welcomes Jacob Markstrom and the other Hugheses to town on Wednesday.
Stats provided by naturalstattrick.com
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