Over the past couple of days, I have been looking into and profiled the NCAA UFA market looking for players that NHL teams, the Canucks included, should be looking into. There is usually quite a bit of hype for the NCAA free agents as they are usually in their early twenties with a few years of experience behind them.

Generally the comparables do better when coming out of the NCAA, so there is more action there. But over the last couple of years the CHL UFA market has started to garner more interest as teams look to add players who were somehow skipped over a few times in the draft. 

Generally, the successful comparable ‘rates’ of CHL players are much lower because if you are good in the CHL, you will get noticed. So by the time their players reach free agency, they’ve likely been drafted. That doesn’t mean there isn’t the odd diamond in the rough, though.

The Florida Panthers and San Jose Sharks kicked off the sweepstakes, signing Moose Jaw Warrior, Dryden Hunt (Florida) and Swift Current Bronco Jon Martin (San Jose), respectively. Without getting too far into the nitty gritty, one checks out much more favourably than the other by production, stature and age based comparables.

Should the Canucks choose to take part, there’s six defenders in the CHL that might be worth their time. I’ve profiled two from the QMJHL, two from the OHL and two from the WHL. So every market’s represented.

The young defenceman from Fredericton has played for Val d’Or, Halifax, Quebec and Saint John over the course of his junior career. The fifth overall pick in the 2011 QMJHL draft attended Ottawa (2014) and Toronto (2015) training camps and also was part of the 2013 Canadians development camp. He has an NHL frame at 6’02” and 204 lbs and by all accounts is an above average skater. He has the ability to chip in offensively but is well-regarded for his defensive zone play. After looking into him, it becomes clear he was just someone who fell through the cracks on the draft floor, but teams still have their eyes on him.

When we look at comparable players, it comes in at an abysmal 2.9% of matches go onto becoming NHL regulars. Although we should expect these numbers to come in low for CHL UFA, that is still a low number. I would think that Murphy will likely get some more invites over the summer to development camps and training camps and will see some game action in the AHL next season. As he can see from the picture above, he was the captain of the Ramparts before being traded to Saint John – so he likely has some of the ‘leadership’ qualities that teams value.

If he can put his game together, he may be someone to watch.

Brouillard is another QMJHL defenceman that NHL teams have been keeping an eye on. On invites, he attended the San Jose Sharks camp in 2013, Winnipeg Jets camp in 2014 and the Toronto Maple Leafs camp in 2015. The major issue with the young defenceman from St Hillaire is size, currently measuring in at 5’11” and 170 lbs – he would have some issues handling the size of AHL players, let alone NHL players. But he does seem to have a knack for putting up points as he put up 0.84 PPG during the 2013-14 season, and then 0.89 PPG in the 2014-15 season. He bumped that up again with 32 points in 23 games for Quebec before being traded to Rouyn-Noranda. He has since put up 26 points in 30 games with his new team.

What stuck out to me, was that Brouillard shoots a lot. Averaging almost 4 S/G but with a 7.8% rate. If he sees a moderate bump in shooting percentage, he would see a fairly drastic increase to his goals. That shooting rate is particularly attractive when looking for a player of his ilk.

When we look at comparables – there are zero matches. This is likely due to his low weight. I wouldn’t view this as an issue, as there just hasn’t been someone like him, so far. The question obviously is, can he add enough weight to take the next step or will he just be one of many offensive defenceman in the QMJHL who never makes it. Based on my few viewings (while watching Canucks prospect in the Q),  you can clearly see the talent that Brouillard possesses. If a team feels confident in their own development team, it could be worth the entry level contract. Based on the previous interest of San Jose, Winnipeg, and Toronto – it may just happen.

The former Canucks prospect is another player that may sign somewhere as a UFA this summer. Drafted in the 7th round of the 2013 draft, the Canucks decided to not sign the puck moving Liberati, opting instead to sign the big MacKenzie Stewart. I still firmly believe that signing Liberati instead of Stewart would’ve been a more worthwhile gamble. Liberati did attend Pittsburgh Penguin training camp this past summer after being unselected in the 2015 NHL Entry Draft. Liberati is a smooth skating puck mover who can help push the play forward. He will still need to work the physical side of the game and reading the play when it’s coming at him. Both of which can likely be coached at the next level.

Liberati has the best comparable rate, with 10.9% going on to become NHL regulars. He has actually seen a bump of 0.5% since the Canucks decided not to sign him. He seems like a worthwhile gamble for any team. He may never develop to more than an AHL regular who may see some NHL call-ups. Organizations do need those types of players and getting that out of the 7th round or as a free agent should be considered a small win.

While there were no matches to be found for Brouillard, there were a ton of comparable players to Michael Webster of the Barrie Colts. With over 130 matches, 6.9% of those went onto becoming NHL regulars. So Webster may have been overlooked simply because he is just an average defenceman who has put up average numbers, as he has averaged 0.37 PPG over his OHL career. He has seen a surge this season with 41 points in 61 games. Webster has been well regarded for his hockey sense and defensive play.

Given the Canucks lack of high end talent in their defensive prospects, I don’t think Webster is someone they should target. He would likely get lost in the shuffle and spend a lot of time in the ECHL. But he may garner some interest from NHL teams.

Jason Fram is a right-handed defenceman who usually plays the right side for the Spokane Chiefs. Born in Delta, B.C., Fram has put up consistent numbers over the last three seasons with a career high of 62 points last season. He has 44 PTS (11-33-44) in 52 games so far this season. His remarkably consistent of 0.8 – 0.9 PPG over the last three seasons is what should make him an attractive UFA. If he sees a dramatic spike as he got older, it could’ve been attributed to maturing physically and mentally, but the aforementioned level point production is a good sign. Fram is 6’0″ and 195 lbs, so he has the frame to be a professional defenceman.

As we’ve been doing throughout this week, when we measure Fram amongst his comparables, exactly 10.0% have gone onto becoming NHL regulars. If the Canucks are looking to the WHL for some UFA defenceman, I think that Fram would be a worthwhile gamble. A local kid who has had a very good WHL career that was somehow passed over in three drafts.

Image: Brandon Wheat Kings

The current captain of the Brandon Wheat Kings, Macoy Erkamps, is another option available on the UFA market. Occupying the spot beside Ivan Provorov, which left open this season by Ryan Pilon deciding to step away from hockey – Erkamps has seen an explosion in offense this season. He had previously had a career high of 35 points, but has already put up 69 points in 69 games this season. 

The Wheat Kings have been a powerhouse this season and Erkamps has been a part and a beneficiary of it. As I mentioned about Fram’s consistency, I would be concerned that Erkamps offensive totals are inflated due to his teammates. However. he is currently getting 0.623 Primary Points/GP, which is the highest amongst the UFA WHL defenceman.

Erkamps is right handed and generally plays the right side.

With all that being said, when looking at comparables, Erkamps does rate at the same 10.0% as Fram. Erkamps is a few months older, so the age difference shouldn’t play too much of a factor. Given his primary point percentage, Erkamps may be worth the risk, to see if he can continue to build on his impressive year. If Brandon has a long playoff run, it will likely increase the chances of Erkamps getting a contract somewhere.

As I mentioned above, all of the CHL options will have a lower comparable rate just solely due to the level of scouting and analysis put on the CHL. There are some worthwhile risks available, but you need to find the player that projects to either continue on their trajectory or be able to add weight/size to a small frame.

Tomorrow, we will take a look at some of the remaining UFA CHL forwards available.