Earlier this week, we saw an Eastern Conference team place a massive bet on a young, relatively unproven NHL player that raised some eyebrows around the league. This got us thinking about whether the Vancouver Canucks could make that same bet with some of their young, unproven, extension-eligible forwards.

On Thursday, the Pittsburgh Penguins announced they had signed 23-year-old winger Ville Koivunen to an eight-year, $32 million contract that carries an average annual value of $4 million. That’s a massive contract to hand out to a player who has just 47 games of NHL experience under his belt. Through those 47 games, he has only two goals and 12 assists for 14 points. Yet the Penguins saw enough in the player in that short time to hand him the massive extension.

While it is a shocking extension to see come down through our news feed, this isn’t the first time we’ve seen something like this. Last offseason, we saw the Carolina Hurricanes hand out an eight-year, $40.94 million contract to a player with just 81 NHL games and 17 goals and 30 points to show for it. That player was Jackson Blake.

Looking back at that deal now, the Hurricanes are laughing at the bargain they got in said player. Before that deal even kicked in, Blake set career highs in goals (22), assists (31) and points (53). Not only that, but he went on to lead the Hurricanes in postseason scoring with seven goals and 20 points en route to a Stanley Cup. Safe to say Carolina cashed in big on that bet.

There are many other examples of these types of contracts that make that team’s front office look brilliant. So we aren’t going to criticize the move for the Penguins. In fact, this is a move we’d like to see the Canucks replicate with some of their young extension-eligible forwards. And while it isn’t the first time we’ve seen a team place this type of bet on an unproven player, it will be one of the last. In just over a month, on September 16, the new NHL Collective Bargaining Agreement will take effect, shortening the maximum contract length from eight to seven years.

With the Canucks heading into a rebuild, they are in a prime position to make these types of bets right now to try to buy future value in exchange for an overpay right now. And the Canucks have four young, extension-eligible players they could exercise this strategy with.

Most of the talk about the Canucks handing out an eight-year extension while they still can has surrounded Zeev Buium. However, he’s projected to come in at a massive ticket. Elias Pettersson (D) is the other defenceman extension-eligible, but after a down season, the Canucks will likely want another look before thinking about an extension. Forward-wise, the Canucks have Jonathan Lekkerimäki, but outside of his elite shot, he hasn’t been healthy enough to show he warrants consideration for a lengthy extension.

That leaves Liam Öhgren. And this author thinks the Canucks should at least consider approaching him with a similar type of deal.

Some readers may consider this a crazy decision. But let’s compare Öhgren’s numbers last season and career totals to those of Koivunen and Blake before they signed their extensions. Before signing their eight-year deals:

Koivunen was coming off a season with seven points in 39 games (0.18 PPG), with a career total of 14 points in 47 games (0.30 PPG).

Blake was coming off a season with 34 points in 80 games (0.43 PPG), with a career total of 34 points in 81 games (0.42 PPG).

Öhgren is coming off a season with 18 points in 69 games (0.26 PPG), with a career total of 25 points in 97 games (0.25 PPG).

To cherry-pick his stats a bit and just use what he did with the Canucks in an elevated role last season, Öhgren’s numbers improve to 18 points in 51 games (0.35 PPG). That season still has him under Blake, but ahead of Koivunen by a significant margin in terms of points per game. And on a rebuilding Canucks squad, Öhgren will be put in a better position to flourish offensively higher in the lineup.

While he may never hit the offensive heights that Blake has, especially early on, Öhgren laps this group in some of the intangibles.

Last season, Öhgren ranked in the 90th percentile in shot speed (91.9 MPH) and 70th in fastest speed burst (22.64 MPH) across the entire NHL. In the year before their extensions, Koivunen and Blake both ranked below the 50th percentile in both categories. Öhgren was more valuable to his team in their extension-eligible season, averaging 14:27 minutes per game (on the Canucks). In contrast, Blake averaged 13:51 and Koivunen 12:44. Both Koivunen and Blake did not average a second of shorthanded time, while Öhgren averaged 37 seconds per game on the penalty kill. That number increased over the last month of the season, when he averaged 1:14 minutes of PK time.

Of course, every situation is different. Who knows how Öhgren develops on a rebuilding team. But based on these point averages, speed scores and deployment, if those two players were worthy of a long-term bet, then Öhgren should be too.

Would it be an overpay to hand Öhgren a contract similar to Koivunen’s right now? Absolutely. However, given the Canucks’ position, this is a bet they are perfectly positioned to make. With over $17 million in cap space right now and over $50 million projected for next season, an Öhgren extension worth an AAV somewhere between Koivunen’s $4 million and Blake’s $5.1 million is something the books could stomach.

What do you think, Canucks fans? Would you want to see the Canucks bet on Liam Öhgren and offer him an eight-year deal if it comes in around a similar AAV to Ville Koivunen’s $4 million? Let us know in the comments below!

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