We’ve seen a trend developing around the National Hockey League: Young players are getting paid coming off their entry-level contracts.

Macklin Celebrini, who emerged as one of the game’s truly elite players this past season, signed a five-year contract extension with an $18.8 million annual average value that won’t kick in until the 2027-28 NHL season. Connor Bedard, a restricted free agent this offseason, re-upped with the Chicago Blackhawks at $15 million annually on a five-year deal. And don’t forget Leo Carlsson, who signed an offer sheet from the Philadelphia Flyers for a five-year contract at $18 million annually, which the Anaheim Ducks subsequently matched, keeping Carlsson in Anaheim.

Celebrini’s deal will see him hit unrestricted free agency as a 26-year-old, and Bedard will also be heading into his age 26 season when he’s a UFA. And would you look at that? Leo Carlsson’s deal also sees him hit free agency in his mid 20s (though he’ll turn 27 in December 2031).

Do you see the other trend developing? On top of getting paid, these young players are taking contracts that walk them right to unrestricted free agency in their mid 20s.

Enter Zeev Buium.

After arriving in Vancouver as part of the Quinn Hughes trade, Buium didn’t exactly light the world on fire. Like most Canucks defencemen under Adam Foote, Buium struggled defensively. He also put up just 12 points in 45 games, and 14 points through 31 games with the Minnesota Wild before the trade. Before all of that, though, Buium turned in a final season of college hockey that ended up being one of the most productive modern NCAA campaigns by a defence prospect.

In the same number of games (41) Buium put up just one fewer point than Cale Makar did in his sophomore season — 48 for Buium, 49 for Makar. Buium also posted a higher points per game mark than Quinn Hughes did in his sophomore season — Hughes 1.03, Buium 1.17. His sophomore point totals outpaced defencemen like Zach Werenski, Charlie McAvoy, Owen Power, and Jake Sanderson. As a result, Buium has been regarded by many as one of the premier prospects in the sport, and it’s also why he was the focal point of the Quinn Hughes trade.

After his disappointing rookie season, takes on Buium are a bit polarizing among Canucks fans these days. Some want to see more from him at the NHL level before handing him a contract. The Canucks have been allowed to sign Buium to a contract extension since July 1st, as he has one season remaining on his entry-level contract before becoming a restricted free agent. He’s also a 10.2(c) player, meaning he isn’t offer sheet eligible. The Canucks have time here, and don’t have to worry about a Leo Carlsson situation with Buium. But should they choose to wait and see what happens next season, Buium could quite possibly realize his potential and command a hefty salary on his next contract if he emerges as a top-pairing defenceman next season.

It’s why, on the other end of the Buium-takes-spectrum, you have Canucks fans saying that the club should have signed Buium to a big money eight-year deal already. After all, as of September 15th, players won’t be able to sign eight-year contracts under the new CBA, so the Canucks could use that to entice Buium with a big-money total dollar contract that will look like an absolute steal if Buium hits as a prospect. It’s what the Montreal Canadiens have done so well (seriously, if you haven’t checked out the Habs’ PuckPedia page, you might as well do it now, because you’re going to be doing it a lot over the next handful of years and asking yourself how they got their books looking so good.) Montreal just recently locked up Ivan Demidov on an eight-year deal at $9.15 million, a salary that’s already looking measly with the way other young players are getting paid this offseason. Not to mention Lane Hutson, who is already locked up at $8.85 million annually until 2034. The rebuilding Habs identified their young core pieces early before they hit their potential, placed their bets, and are looking good long-term as a result. The situation with the Habs’ youngsters and Buium is obviously different, but the point of locking up young players early is the one Canucks fans who want Buium signed long-term are pointing to.

But would Buium even want to sign a longer-term contract with the Canucks at this juncture?

Let’s say the Canucks offer Buium a contract that most would say is at least near “hard to refuse” territory: 8 years at $10 million annually. That’s $80 million guaranteed for a player who has six goals and 20 assists through 76 NHL games. Would Buium even accept that?

If you’re Buium and his camp, you’re no-doubt seeing the rising salary cap and its effect on player contracts, and you’re also seeing the trend of big money on deals that walk players right to UFA, as we talked about in the intro. So what’s the path forward?

There’s value in the security that $80 million of guaranteed money represents when you’re a 20-year-old who hasn’t realized his potential at the NHL level just yet. But Buium doesn’t exactly come across as someone who lacks confidence. Might he accept a deal like that from the Canucks today? Of course he might. What we’re saying is that such a contract offer isn’t the slam-dunk that some people seem to think it is.

If Buium’s next contract with the Canucks comes in at six years, that would walk him right to free agency. Seven would buy one UFA year, eight would buy two. On a six-year deal, Buium would hit free agency as a 27-year-old. Would the Canucks want those numbers? Would Buium?

The short answer is maybe not, and that goes for both parties. That’s why literally anything is on the table when it comes to Buium’s next contract, and it’s not as simple as saying “the Canucks should go long with this player!”

When you break down the incentives for both sides, a shorter-term “bridge” deal (say three years) starts to look less like a compromise and more like the ideal scenario for player and team alike.

From Buium’s perspective, signing long-term right now could mean selling low on his potential. His rookie stats don’t reflect the elite offensive driver he was at Denver, and if he emerges as an elite defenceman, he could be in the underpaid category in a hurry if he were to sign long-term right now. If Buium believes he’s the top-pairing star his NCAA pedigree suggests, taking a short-term contract is the ultimate bet on himself. A three-year bridge lets him adjust to a new (hopefully far better) coach, prove he can hold his own defensively, and rack up the points his talent promises. By the time that bridge expires, he’ll be 24, the cap will be significantly higher, and he’ll be in a position to demand true elite-tier money rather than settling for an AAV suppressed by a quiet rookie year.

For the Canucks, a bridge deal offers crucial risk management. As enticing as it sounds to pull a Montreal and lock up young talent before they explode, the Canucks are in a different structural position. Handing out $10 million+ on an eight-year commitment to a player who hasn’t lived up to expectations in his first 76 NHL games obviously carries risk. A short-term deal gives the Canucks time to verify what they actually have in Buium.

And because Buium can’t be offer-sheeted, the Canucks should have more leverage on the exact term. A three-year bridge keeps Buium as a restricted free agent at its conclusion, giving Vancouver full control over his rights while pushing his big payday down the road. And for Buium, that also sets him up to command a hefty salary as a 24-year-old from the Canucks, should he realize his potential.

To put it simply, the Canucks and Buium are standing at a crossroads where patience might just be the smartest play for both sides. The Canucks would almost certainly have to get to a truly uncomfortable number to make Buium seriously consider signing long-term at this juncture, so that’s why they might hold off. And for Buium, it’s hard to ignore what’s happening around the league and make a bet on yourself to see just how high that AAV can really get.