You come to us on this, the first day of the <a href="https://canucksarmy.com/combinations">Vancouver Canucks’</a> offseason, and you ask us for more dreaming?
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&nbsp;
Okay, no problem.
The Canucks’ season has, functionally-speaking, been over for a while. And as exciting as this last run of games has wound up being – five goals in five minutes, the greatest comeback in team history, etc. – there is also an understandable desire from some corners to just get on with it and move on to what promises to be one of the franchise’s most crucial summers ever.
You know us folks at CanucksArmy will be hard at work April through August bringing you predictions, previews, and prognostications, and then tons of analysis about whatever moves the Canucks actually make. But at this early stage in the process, we’re still thinking big. This is Offseason Dreaming, and it’s all about possibility.
Which leads us to today’s topic. There’s no doubt that the Canucks will need to upgrade their forward corps this offseason. There has been a lot of talk about them adding a top-six centre, and with good reason – they clearly need one, and GM Patrik Allvin has highlighted it as a major priority.
But with Brock Boeser departing, and possibly Pius Suter, too, the Canucks will also just need more offence in general, regardless of the position it comes from. And on that front, we can’t help but wonder about the feasibility of the Canucks landing (by far) the biggest difference-maker available through unrestricted free agency this summer.
We’re talking, of course, about Mitch Marner.
<h2>The Cost</h2>
Make no mistake here: Marner is the best UFA available, and he will also be the most expensive. <a href="https://afpanalytics.com/contract-projections/">AFPAnalytics </a>currently has him predicted at an eight-year term (only possible if he re-signs in Toronto) and an AAV of $12,570,187, which is a lot…and we believe he’ll probably wind up signing for even more than that if he hits the open market.
Players like Marner – who just hit his first official 100-point season, after having paced for that on multiple occasions – just don’t become available as free agents very often. If he’s out there, a bidding war will inevitably ensue, and that will no doubt jack up the price tag.
A reminder that the cap is going up by 8.5% this season, and has similar jumps scheduled for the next two summers after this one, too. If we just apply that inflation to Marner’s current $10,903,000 compensation, it already brings us to $11,829,755. And that’s just a contract that Marner signed as an RFA, after his third NHL season of 94 points in 82 games.
Since that 2019 signing, Marner has piled up another 515 points in 415 games, good for eighth among all NHLers across that same span. He has almost certainly earned a raise, and a raise that would push him well into the range of $12+ million range. A bidding war could drive the price even higher.
So let’s go ahead and say that, were the Canucks to land Marner, they wouldn’t do so for a commitment of any less than a $12 million AAV over a seven-year term.
And that’s the low-end. A $14 million AAV may be more realistic when all is said and done.
For many, that’s the end of the dream. For others, the question becomes: can the Canucks even afford that?
<h2>The Salary Fit</h2>
The short answer is ‘kinda,’ and the long answer is ‘yes, but not without some difficulty.’
When we previewed the Canucks’ offseason cap situation, <a href="https://canucksarmy.com/news/vancouver-canucks-secured-offseason-cap-space-now-what-they-need-spend-on">we found them to have about $14.7 million on hand without making any transactions</a>.
Great, that’s what they’d need to sign Marner, right?
The only problem is that the projection was for a roster of just 19 players, and the Canucks usually roll with 23. Spending room of $14.7 million is maybe, just barely enough to sign Marner and three more roster players at league minimum.
And that’s only if Marner signs at his low-end. If he signs at $14 million, say, then that would mean absolutely no room for any further signings.
With that, we’d probably say that, unless the Canucks can open up a bit more cap space, a Marner signing would be difficult to fit under the ceiling.
But the Canucks could, in fact, open up a bit more cap space. Trading Thatcher Demko, for example, and replacing him with a more reasonably-priced backup goalie should open up some $3 million. That, alone, could give the Canucks the breathing room to both sign Marner and fill out the rest of their roster.
But that would require the Canucks either freeing that space up prior to July 1, the opening of free agency, or going into the rest of the offseason over the cap and desperate to shed. Neither is an ideal situation, but they are manageable.
Which leads us to the next question of whether Marner would even be worth all the difficulty.
<h2>The Roster Fit</h2>
So, Marner is not a centre. The Maple Leafs have tried him there on a couple of occasions, and it’s never really stuck.
The Canucks’ preference is undoubtedly for a centre. Heading into 2025/26, they’ve got the mercurial Elias Pettersson, the injured Filip Chytil, the sophomore Aatu Räty, and the reliable Teddy Blueger signed up. There is a clear-cut need for somebody else in that mix.
That said, with Boeser’s departure, their wing depth is also suddenly a lot thinner. Right now, the depth chart probably goes Jake DeBrusk, Conor Garland, and then a hodgepodge of Dakota Joshua, Nils Höglander, and Jonathan Lekkerimäki. It’s not exactly a set of world-beaters, and it also clearly needs the addition of another player at or near the top.
Marner would slot in several tiers ahead of DeBrusk.
The issue becomes how to arrange the rest of the top six around Marner. Who do they play him with? One obvious appeal would be to slot him next to Pettersson, in the hopes of fully re-sparking the latter’s offensive game.
That’s all well and good, aside from the stylistic issues that we’ll get to in a moment, but then, who is playing on the second line? It’s looking a little skimpy, especially if Chytil does not return to play.
In this scenario, the Canucks’ need for another top-six centre would remain the same. Unfortunately, there’d be no cap space left over to pursue said top-six centre.
Could the Canucks get away with having so many of their eggs in two baskets, with those baskets being Pettersson and Marner? We’re not so sure.
Time to talk about Marner’s qualities beyond offensive production. He is not, to be sure, a one-dimensional player. He’s an annual recipient of votes for the Selke Trophy and was nominated for it in 2023. He’s an excellent penalty killer, and one can’t help but get a little excited about him and Pettersson forming the most dangerous shorthanded duo in recent history.
But Marner also draws criticisms for both softness and a perceived lack of reliability when the pressure is on, which are the same sorts of criticisms laid at Pettersson’s feet most often. Marner’s reputation has grown a bit since his clutch performance at the 4 Nations, but perhaps not enough to shift the inevitable storylines should he join the Canucks.
We’re not saying that Marner and Pettersson couldn’t work together. We’re just saying that there’d be a lot of naysayers right off the bat, and any struggles along the way would be criticized to the nth degree.
It’s asking a lot of two players who, due to the salary-related restrictions we just talked about, would have to be relied on for the bulk of the offence if they ever occupied the same roster.
<h2>The Odds</h2>
We just don’t think it’s going to happen.
With everyone wanting a piece of Marner, in theory, the bidding war will no doubt get intense. On that front, the Canucks are already playing shorthanded due to taxes, and they’d have to make a truly compelling offer to even get Marner to take a sniff. The siren call of tax havens will be strong.
There’s also a very real question of whether Marner would want to leave the media hotbed of Toronto for an only-slightly-less-intense market in Vancouver. If the guy wanted to head somewhere like Carolina after the experience he’s had thus far, everyone would understand.
We get to a point where, in order for Marner to end up a Vancouver Canuck, he’s going to have to want to specifically become a Vancouver Canuck. Were the Canucks able to pitch him on something concrete – maybe the concept of staying in a Canadian market that will build statues of him if he succeeds, just like Toronto, but without the same day-to-day insanity of Toronto – and were Marner to buy that pitch, then the chances increase.
The Canucks won’t be able to make the biggest offer he receives. They won’t be able to offer the most competitive roster. They won’t be able to offer the warmest climate.
Marner either has to choose the Canucks, or the Canucks will have to look elsewhere for their offensive upgrades in the Summer of 2025.
This particular dream is, unfortunately, of the pipe variety.
Sponsored by bet365
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&nbsp;

You come to us on this, the first day of the <a href="https://canucksarmy.com/combinations">Vancouver Canucks’</a> offseason, and you ask us for more dreaming?
<div class="bam-inline-promotion-block" data-max-length="2" data-placement-id="2111" data-context="web-content-promocard" data-property-id="329"></div>
&nbsp;

Okay, no problem.

The Canucks’ season has, functionally-speaking, been over for a while. And as exciting as this last run of games has wound up being – five goals in five minutes, the greatest comeback in team history, etc. – there is also an understandable desire from some corners to just get on with it and move on to what promises to be one of the franchise’s most crucial summers ever.

You know us folks at CanucksArmy will be hard at work April through August bringing you predictions, previews, and prognostications, and then tons of analysis about whatever moves the Canucks actually make. But at this early stage in the process, we’re still thinking big. This is Offseason Dreaming, and it’s all about possibility.

Which leads us to today’s topic. There’s no doubt that the Canucks will need to upgrade their forward corps this offseason. There has been a lot of talk about them adding a top-six centre, and with good reason – they clearly need one, and GM Patrik Allvin has highlighted it as a major priority.

But with Brock Boeser departing, and possibly Pius Suter, too, the Canucks will also just need more offence in general, regardless of the position it comes from. And on that front, we can’t help but wonder about the feasibility of the Canucks landing (by far) the biggest difference-maker available through unrestricted free agency this summer.

We’re talking, of course, about Mitch Marner.
<h2>The Cost</h2>
Make no mistake here: Marner is the best UFA available, and he will also be the most expensive. <a href="https://afpanalytics.com/contract-projections/">AFPAnalytics </a>currently has him predicted at an eight-year term (only possible if he re-signs in Toronto) and an AAV of $12,570,187, which is a lot…and we believe he’ll probably wind up signing for even more than that if he hits the open market.

Players like Marner – who just hit his first official 100-point season, after having paced for that on multiple occasions – just don’t become available as free agents very often. If he’s out there, a bidding war will inevitably ensue, and that will no doubt jack up the price tag.

A reminder that the cap is going up by 8.5% this season, and has similar jumps scheduled for the next two summers after this one, too. If we just apply that inflation to Marner’s current $10,903,000 compensation, it already brings us to $11,829,755. And that’s just a contract that Marner signed as an RFA, after his third NHL season of 94 points in 82 games.

Since that 2019 signing, Marner has piled up another 515 points in 415 games, good for eighth among all NHLers across that same span. He has almost certainly earned a raise, and a raise that would push him well into the range of $12+ million range. A bidding war could drive the price even higher.

So let’s go ahead and say that, were the Canucks to land Marner, they wouldn’t do so for a commitment of any less than a $12 million AAV over a seven-year term.

And that’s the low-end. A $14 million AAV may be more realistic when all is said and done.

For many, that’s the end of the dream. For others, the question becomes: can the Canucks even afford that?
<h2>The Salary Fit</h2>
The short answer is ‘kinda,’ and the long answer is ‘yes, but not without some difficulty.’

When we previewed the Canucks’ offseason cap situation, <a href="https://canucksarmy.com/news/vancouver-canucks-secured-offseason-cap-space-now-what-they-need-spend-on">we found them to have about $14.7 million on hand without making any transactions</a>.

Great, that’s what they’d need to sign Marner, right?

The only problem is that the projection was for a roster of just 19 players, and the Canucks usually roll with 23. Spending room of $14.7 million is maybe, just barely enough to sign Marner and three more roster players at league minimum.

And that’s only if Marner signs at his low-end. If he signs at $14 million, say, then that would mean absolutely no room for any further signings.

With that, we’d probably say that, unless the Canucks can open up a bit more cap space, a Marner signing would be difficult to fit under the ceiling.

But the Canucks could, in fact, open up a bit more cap space. Trading Thatcher Demko, for example, and replacing him with a more reasonably-priced backup goalie should open up some $3 million. That, alone, could give the Canucks the breathing room to both sign Marner and fill out the rest of their roster.

But that would require the Canucks either freeing that space up prior to July 1, the opening of free agency, or going into the rest of the offseason over the cap and desperate to shed. Neither is an ideal situation, but they are manageable.

Which leads us to the next question of whether Marner would even be worth all the difficulty.
<h2>The Roster Fit</h2>
So, Marner is not a centre. The Maple Leafs have tried him there on a couple of occasions, and it’s never really stuck.

The Canucks’ preference is undoubtedly for a centre. Heading into 2025/26, they’ve got the mercurial Elias Pettersson, the injured Filip Chytil, the sophomore Aatu Räty, and the reliable Teddy Blueger signed up. There is a clear-cut need for somebody else in that mix.

That said, with Boeser’s departure, their wing depth is also suddenly a lot thinner. Right now, the depth chart probably goes Jake DeBrusk, Conor Garland, and then a hodgepodge of Dakota Joshua, Nils Höglander, and Jonathan Lekkerimäki. It’s not exactly a set of world-beaters, and it also clearly needs the addition of another player at or near the top.

Marner would slot in several tiers ahead of DeBrusk.

The issue becomes how to arrange the rest of the top six around Marner. Who do they play him with? One obvious appeal would be to slot him next to Pettersson, in the hopes of fully re-sparking the latter’s offensive game.

That’s all well and good, aside from the stylistic issues that we’ll get to in a moment, but then, who is playing on the second line? It’s looking a little skimpy, especially if Chytil does not return to play.

In this scenario, the Canucks’ need for another top-six centre would remain the same. Unfortunately, there’d be no cap space left over to pursue said top-six centre.

Could the Canucks get away with having so many of their eggs in two baskets, with those baskets being Pettersson and Marner? We’re not so sure.

Time to talk about Marner’s qualities beyond offensive production. He is not, to be sure, a one-dimensional player. He’s an annual recipient of votes for the Selke Trophy and was nominated for it in 2023. He’s an excellent penalty killer, and one can’t help but get a little excited about him and Pettersson forming the most dangerous shorthanded duo in recent history.

But Marner also draws criticisms for both softness and a perceived lack of reliability when the pressure is on, which are the same sorts of criticisms laid at Pettersson’s feet most often. Marner’s reputation has grown a bit since his clutch performance at the 4 Nations, but perhaps not enough to shift the inevitable storylines should he join the Canucks.

We’re not saying that Marner and Pettersson couldn’t work together. We’re just saying that there’d be a lot of naysayers right off the bat, and any struggles along the way would be criticized to the nth degree.

It’s asking a lot of two players who, due to the salary-related restrictions we just talked about, would have to be relied on for the bulk of the offence if they ever occupied the same roster.
<h2>The Odds</h2>
We just don’t think it’s going to happen.

With everyone wanting a piece of Marner, in theory, the bidding war will no doubt get intense. On that front, the Canucks are already playing shorthanded due to taxes, and they’d have to make a truly compelling offer to even get Marner to take a sniff. The siren call of tax havens will be strong.

There’s also a very real question of whether Marner would want to leave the media hotbed of Toronto for an only-slightly-less-intense market in Vancouver. If the guy wanted to head somewhere like Carolina after the experience he’s had thus far, everyone would understand.

We get to a point where, in order for Marner to end up a Vancouver Canuck, he’s going to have to want to specifically become a Vancouver Canuck. Were the Canucks able to pitch him on something concrete – maybe the concept of staying in a Canadian market that will build statues of him if he succeeds, just like Toronto, but without the same day-to-day insanity of Toronto – and were Marner to buy that pitch, then the chances increase.

The Canucks won’t be able to make the biggest offer he receives. They won’t be able to offer the most competitive roster. They won’t be able to offer the warmest climate.

Marner either has to choose the Canucks, or the Canucks will have to look elsewhere for their offensive upgrades in the Summer of 2025.

This particular dream is, unfortunately, of the pipe variety.

Sponsored by bet365
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