The Vancouver Canucks kick off their first road trip of the season against the Tampa Bay Lightning. The Canucks are still in search of their first win of the season, sitting at a 0-0-2 record, while the Lightning made light work of their first game of the season, defeating the Carolina Hurricanes 4-1. This article breaks down the matchup from a betting perspective.

In their latest meeting, Brock Boeser registered his second hat trick of the season and four total shots on goal. Quinn Hughes also had a great night, tallying three assists while Thatcher Demko stood on his head, stopping 28 of 29 shots for a .966 save percentage (S%). It wasn’t the strongest night for Andrei Vasilevskiy, who allowed three goals on just 21 shots.

Historically, the Lightning has the Canucks’ number. Outside of their most recent match – a 4-1 Canucks win – Tampa Bay had won seven straight, outscoring Vancouver 34-16. But now, these teams are different, and their previous game may be more of an indication of what’s to come for this matchup.

Check out Daily Faceoff for lineups and starting goaltenders for the Canucks and Lightning.

The Canucks have gotten off to two terrific starts in a row – nabbing the first goal in both games and outscoring their opponents 5-2 – but have struggled to close out the game. They have been outscored 6-3 in the final two frames and just felt comfortable sitting on their lead rather than pushing forward and finishing the game.

Vancouver’s top six and bottom six took shifts as to who would perform each game. On night one, JT Miller, Boeser, and Hughes showed up — ranking up two points each — while on night two, bottom sixers Nils Höglander and Teddy Blueger were the ones to score. The top six is going to need to perform when looking at the powerhouse that is the opposing top line.

The blue line is where this team is looking a little weak. After a minus-two debut in a Canucks uniform, Vincent Desharnais was scratched for the following game. He will likely draw back in after Tyler Myers’ awkward collision last game, which may sideline him for this match, so Desharnais will need to bounce back in a big way.

Arturs Silovs needs a bounce back as well, and he gets the start in goal after a strong Canucks debut from Kevin Lankinen against the Flyers.

Analytically, it does look like Vancouver is generating more than they are producing. The Canucks rank eighth in the league in expected goals for percentage (xGF%) and scoring chances for percentage (SCF%), indicating that they are generating more scoring chances and expected goals than they are allowing defensively. With continued production like this, the Canucks’ fortunate in the win column should go in their favour.

The Lightning had an impressive game one against the Hurricanes. They allowed the first goal in the first period but stayed in the game, evening up on the power play off the stick of Brayden Point. Then, who else but Nikita Kucherov to come alive in the third period, scoring three unanswered goals – two empty-netters – to solidify a road victory for the Lightning.

While the top line had solid production points wise, they finished with a less than 50% rating in xGF% and SCF%. In fact, it was the Lightning’s second line of Anthony Cirelli, Nicolas Paul and Brandon Hagel to finish positively in those categories. As a team, Tampa Bay ranks dead last in xGF% and second last in SCF% at 5-on-5. Granted, it’s been one game, and it’s way too early to declare them a poor even strength team just yet.

However, there is only one team that ranks higher in SCF% at 5-on-5 than the Hurricanes after their meeting with the Lightning, and that’s the Canucks. If the Lightning can’t get a few calls their way and capitalize on the power play, they might be in for a challenge at 5-on-5 in their second game of the season.

While yes, it was Boeser who stole the show in their last matchup, the other goal scorer was… Andrei Kuzmenko, who played with Elias Pettersson. DeBrusk is now filling in Kuzmenko’s old spot as Pettersson’s running mate. Throughout the first two games, Pettersson is often looking off chances for himself and passing them to DeBrusk so he can score his first as a member of the Canucks. DeBrusk has seven shots on goal through his first two games. Don’t expect that to slow down before he pots his first one.

A little juicy here, but Point’s home splits are too impressive to overlook. Over his last 30 home regular season games, Point has registered three or more shots on goal in 22 games, averaging 3.2 shots on 5.6 shot attempts. When Point sees at least five shot attempts in Amalie Arena, he’s cleared this line in 27 games and averages 4.0 shots per game. Against the Canucks, Point has cleared in three straight home games.

Pair it with his point to improve the odds for a more playable number.