The Vancouver Canucks will continue their critical six-game road trip Saturday afternoon when they take on the New York Rangers at Madison Square Garden. While Thursday’s matchup versus the St. Louis Blues featured a playoff atmosphere because of the two teams’ relation in the standings, Saturday’s matchup could feature a similar feel as J.T. Miller faces off against his former side for the first time.

Since trading Miller, the Canucks are 9-8-2, while New York has played to a record of 9-9-2 since acquiring the 32-year-old. The Canucks enter this matchup one point back of the Blues for the final Wild Card spot, with one game in hand, while New York sits two points back of the Montreal Canadiens for the final spot, having played two more games.

I’ll detail the relevant game notes, as well as outline my favourite betting angle below.

While the final result was disappointing for Canucks fans, at least Thursday’s matchup was an exciting one. Vancouver salvaged a point thanks to Brock Boeser’s game-tying goal with two seconds left, though it also blew a one-goal lead earlier in what was a wild third period.

From a statistical perspective, it was another low-event affair from head coach Rick Tocchet’s side, much more so than the final scoreline indicated. The Canucks continue to stick with the same conservative tactics, opting to chip pucks in at the blue line as much as possible and avoid being caught out in transition.

The Blues held a 9-3 edge in high-danger scoring chances, leading 2.37 to 1.24 in expected goals. It was not an overly strong showing from the Canucks defence corps. Quinn Hughes was not as sharp defensively nor with the puck as we have become accustomed to seeing over the last two years, while Elias Pettersson (D) had one of his worst games as a Canuck, and Derek Forbort did not fare all that much better.

Relative to the rest of the team and the quality of opponents they mainly played against, it was another solid showing from the Canucks’ newly formed top-line of Elias Pettersson (F), Boeser and Nils Höglander. Obviously, Boeser was rewarded with two critical goals, but the top unit also hung in respectably defensively versus the Blues’ top units.

Since trading Miller away, the Canucks’ offensive results have been moderately improved to some extent, though they are still far from good. In 19 games since the trade, they have averaged 2.63 goals per game and generated 3.00 xGF/60.

Conor Garland returned to the lineup Thursday, skating 15:52 and recording a +1 rating. With Garland now healthy, Filip Chytil is the only regular notable skater left on the injury report. Surely, Chytil would love to play against his former side but remains sidelined for this matchup after not travelling with the team to St. Louis.

Kevin Lankinen is expected to get the start after a solid performance versus the Blues. Lankinen holds a +1.4 GSAx rating and a .903 save percentage in 45 appearances this season.

The Rangers’ hopes of stealing the final Eastern Conference Wild Card spot have been decimated this week by a three-game regulation losing streak, in which they have combined for just six goals. In the month of March, New York has averaged just 2.64 goals per game in 11 matchups but allowed only 2.45 goals against per game.

Artemi Panarin is quietly amid an 11-game point streak, in which he has put up eight goals and eight assists, leading all NHL skaters this month. Vincent Trocheck has also been effective playing alongside Panarin, totalling 10 points in the same span.

Beyond the dominant play from the top line, the Rangers offensive attack looks pretty modest. Trading away Chytil and Kaapo Kakko has hurt the offensive upside of the bottom six. New York’s bottom two units have not been very productive recently, which isn’t surprising based on the talents compiling the two lines.

In 11 games this month, the Rangers have generated just 2.96 xGF/60 and have actually played a relatively soft schedule of opposing defensive teams in that span.

Goaltender Igor Shesterkin signed an eight-year deal with an 11.5 million dollar AAV in December, a deal which makes him the highest-paid goaltender in the league and which will not kick in until next season. Due to his massive contract extension, any perceived deficiencies in his game are critiqued heavily by the Rangers media and fanbase, but he’s rarely looked to be the problem.

Shesterkin allowed four goals in his last outing versus the Toronto Maple Leafs, but a review of all four goals would suggest Shesterkin was not at fault. Despite his modest .907 save percentage and 2.81 GAA this season, Shesterkin holds a +18.8 GSAx rating.

Both of these teams should be desperate to earn two points from this matchup, as they look to hang around in their respective Wild Card races. Neither side has been overly effective offensively recently, which has been the leading cause of their below-average results.

The last 11 Rangers games have averaged just 5.09 combined goals, and that trend does not seem overly likely to change with the Canucks in town. While Vancouver has had some surprisingly high scorelines in recent matchups, those who are most familiar with the team would generally agree those are more likely to be outliers than the norm.

Both teams’ last matchups, in particular, were far more low event than the actual scorelines suggested, and if this game looks comparable, it will likely not lead to such a high total. At -115, I see value in backing this game to go under 5.5 goals, and I believe backing a regulation tie at +318 is also worthy of a smaller bet.