The Vancouver Canucks will look to extend their winning streak to three games when they host the Utah Hockey Club for a critical matchup Sunday evening.

With a regulation win Utah can pull within two points of the Canucks, while a loss would put its hopes of stealing the final playoff spot out West on life support.

I’ll detail the relevant game notes, as well as outline my favourite betting angle below.

This is the most important game of the season for Utah, as it looks to earn a crucial four-point swing in the standings. There are some arguments which suggest Utah could pull off the improbable playoff berth, as it has displayed a strong level of play during its recent 5-3-2 run and has a softer schedule than Vancouver the rest of the way.

Head coach Rick Tocchet and the Canucks know full well how scrappy Utah can be, as Utah has won the initial two head-to-head meetings of the season between these sides, including a 2-1 victory on February 23rd.

Entering the season, Utah’s defensive core was expected to be a strength, as Mikhail Sergachev, Sean Durzi and John Marino are all high-quality puck-movers that can help drive play in the right direction. Chances are if the team didn’t spend several months with Durzi and Marino both sidelined, it would have a few more wins and be holding down a playoff berth.

Utah has also spent meaningful periods of play without two high-quality young forwards in Dylan Guenther and Logan Cooley, who have both taken considerable steps forward this season and are a big part of what has become an underrated top-six.

Over the last 10 games, Utah has been consistently generated more chances than its opponent, as it holds a 55.09% expected goal share across all strengths and outshot opponents by 5.72 shots per 60. Despite finishing only 9.44% of shots on goal in that span, it still has earned five regulation wins and a pair of losses in the three-on-three/shootout novelty settlements.

Utah’s top offensive unit of Clayton Keller, Nick Schmaltz and Logan Cooley have formed a truly dominant line capable of having success in tough matchups. They have outscored opponents 15-9 in 228 minutes of play and have generated 61.85 shots per 60.

Karel Vejmelka has been confirmed as the starting goaltender in this matchup. He holds a .908 save percentage and +15.6 GSAx in 43 appearances this season.

The Canucks took care of business last night versus the Blackhawks, as they displayed some clinical finishing on route to a 6-2 win. It was a tight-knit first period, until Quinn Hughes opened the scoring with a pretty wrister on just the Canucks third shot of the period. Both sides generated only six high danger scoring chances, while the Canucks held a 1.79 to 1.11 edge in expected goals.

As the Canucks lead by several goals throughout the majority of the matchup, Tocchet was able to spread the minutes around somewhat evenly, which should be beneficial in this back-to-back spot.

Filip Chytil left the game after taking a very debatable hit from Jason Dickinson and will likely be sidelined for this matchup as a result. Given Chytil’s history of head injuries, it’s a particularly scary situation, and we certainly hope he is okay. While Chytil’s health is the greater concern, it’s hard to see how the hit avoids supplemental discipline. Chytil doesn’t put himself in a great spot, but at no point did Dickinson ever have a chance of doing anything but going straight through the numbers.

With no morning skate, it’s hard to say how Tocchet will adjust his lines in Chytil’s absence. The Canucks top-line of Elias Pettersson, Nils Höglander and Jake DeBrusk was effective last night, and it would be surprising to see that unit broken apart in this game.

Including his beautiful goal on Saturday, Pettersson has now racked up four goals and six points in his last six appearances. His return to form has been critical to the team’s recent success and could be particularly moving forward if Chytil is out long-term, as Chytil had been offering strong play down the middle.

The Canucks recent underlying results are improved compared to most of the last three months, as they hold a 51.94% expected goal share and have generated 3.04 xGF/60. While no one is mistaking them for an offensive juggernaut, they are certainly looking more competent with Hughes back in the mix and Pettersson playing at a higher level.

Tocchet made a smart decision in starting Arturs Silovs last night and will now be able to start a rested Kevin Lankinen in tonight’s more difficult matchup. Lankinen holds a +1.1 GSAx rating and .904 save percentage in 42 appearances this season.

This is a favourable scheduling spot for Utah, who will surely display a high level of desperation in this matchup, which will likely feature a playoff-type feel. Utah’s underlying results suggest it is a better team than its overall record suggests, as does the actual talent on the roster now that it is fully healthy.

As I posted yesterday to my profile on the Action Network app, Utah did look to hold betting value at the opening price of -105. Now that the price to bet Utah has swung all the way to -128, I believe there is no value in backing either side.

While Keller’s shot volume has been down over the last ten games, he’s actually averaging more attempts per game in that span than he has throughout the rest of the season. Utah’s top line continues to be a handful to keep in check and will likely create a ton of looks in this matchup. At -112, there does look to be value backing Keller to record over 2.5 shots on goal.