The Vancouver Canucks authored an impressive comeback to earn a 5-2 win over the Columbus Blue Jackets Friday. They will look to build on that performance as they host the Tampa Bay Lightning on Sunday afternoon. While Vancouver has been dominant on the road at 10-2-1, it is just 4-5-3 on home ice and will surely be keen to improve on that mark during its six-game home stand.

The Lightning enter off of a dominant 8-1 home victory over the San Jose Sharks on Thursday, which came without top forward Nikita Kucherov. Kucherov is listed as day-to-day ahead of this matchup, and it is unclear whether or not he will return to the lineup.

I’ll detail the relevant game notes, as well as outline my favourite betting angle below.

The Lightning made some tough decisions this offseason, as they opted to move on from longtime Captain Steven Stamkos, and trade Mikhail Sergachev to Utah. Those moves provided space to sign Jake Guentzel to an eight-year contract with a $9 million average annual value (AAV), while Sergachev brought in a strong return of JJ Moser and Connor Geekie.

It’s starting to look quite possible that the 2024-25 version of the Lightning will ultimately be a much-improved team compared to what we saw in 2023-24. Guentzel has produced as expected, playing mainly on the top line and top power play, while Moser has fit in well alongside Victor Hedman on the top pairing.

After some slightly lesser years that came seemingly out of the blue, Anthony Cirelli has once again been an elite two-way centre and forced his way onto the Canadian Four Nations team with his excellent start. Brandon Hagel is on pace for 105 points as he skates in his true prime at age 26.

The Lightning enter this matchup having scored 3.92 goals per game, which is the second-best mark in the NHL.

In their last 10 matchups, the Lightning hold an expected goal share (xGF%) of 55.65% and have generated 3.27 xGF/60 in that span.

The Lightning will likely look to give Andrei Vasilevskiy a rest in the near future, so keep your eyes out for final goaltending confirmations ahead of this matchup as the gap between Vasilevskiy and backup Jonas Johansson is significant. Vasilevskiy has made five straight starts and has played 20 of the Lightning’s 24 games this season.

Johansson holds a -6.1 goals saved above expected (GSAx) and a .871 save percentage (S%) in five appearances this season. He holds a career S% of .887% at the NHL level.

The Canucks battled back from a slow start Friday and were able to earn two points behind another strong showing from Kevin Lankinen. Brock Boeser tallied his first marker since returning to the lineup, and Jake DeBrusk scored his ninth goal in a span of just seven games.

Thatcher Demko served as the backup in Friday’s matchup, and there is a chance that he will make his long-awaited season debut in this matchup.

Over the last 10 games, the Canucks hold an expected goal share of just 47.61% and have the 12th highest shots against per 60 rare in that span. We have seen plenty of forwards step up to cover the absence of JT Miller, such as DeBrusk and Pius Suter, but the hole left by Filip Hronek’s absence from the blue line continues to look highly concerning.

Canucks head coach Rick Tocchet opted to keep Quinn Hughes and Tyler Myers together on the top pairing Friday. And based on Hughes’ incredible play, that unit continues to perform well. However, that leaves a second pairing of Noah Juulsen and Carson Soucy, and that unit has been exposed consistently.

Juulsen and Soucy have allowed 3.43 expected goals against per 60 (xGA/60) this season, which is the seventh-highest mark among any defensive pairing to play 75 minutes together at even strength. They will be forced into some tough matchups versus a Tampa side that features two lines performing at an elite level (pending Kucherov’s status), which could prove highly concerning in this matchup.

The Canucks power play has clicked 24% of the time this season, which has been a strength that has helped cover up for relatively breakeven play at even strength. The Lightning hold the 22nd-ranked penalty kill that has succeeded just 78.9% of the time.

This presents as a good opportunity for Tocchet’s side to prove its worth versus an elite team on home ice, which is a situation they have not fared well in to this point. If Kucherov does play and Vasilevskiy starts, the Lightning appear to be the side holding a little more value at +110.

The last 15 Lightning games have averaged 7.2 combined goals, and the over has gone 8-6-1 in that span. This looks like a good spot to target that trend, as the Canucks defensive play has been unconvincing versus higher-quality teams of late, and their defensive depth looks to be a concern.

Many of the Canucks top offensive stars are in great form, though, and the Lightning have allowed a fair share of goals against versus higher-quality opponents.

The current total of six looks a little low, and I feel there is value in backing the over at anything better than -115 if we see Vasilevskiy versus Lankinen or Demko. The other benefit from betting the over early is that if this does end up being a Johansson start we will gain considerable line value, as the total would likely be adjusted to 6.5.