The Vancouver Canucks will look to close out 2024 on a high note when they take on the Calgary Flames on New Year’s Eve.
With a record of 17-10-8, the Canucks currently hold a one-point lead over the Flames for the final Western Conference playoff spot and have played one less game. They’ve been one of the NHL’s best road teams this season with a record of 10-3-2, but they’re winless in their last three games away from home.
With a record of 12-4-3 on home ice, the Flames have been one of the NHL’s best home teams this season and have gained some ground on the Canucks with a steady 5-3-3 record in the month of December.
I’ll detail the relevant game notes, as well as outline my favourite betting angle below.
Canucks vs. Flames odds
- Canucks Moneyline Odds: +119
- Flames Moneyline Odds: -131
- Puck Line Odds: Canucks +1.5 (-233), Flames -1.5 (+201)
- Game Total: Over 6 (+105), Under 6 (-118)
Odds courtesy of Pinnacle.
Vancouver Canucks
The Canucks will look to bounce back after a horrific collapse in their last matchup versus the Seattle Kraken, in which they blew a 4-1 lead in the final five minutes before falling 5-4 in overtime after a costly turnover from Tyler Myers.
That matchup was the first game of the season in which the Canucks played without captain Quinn Hughes, who will remain out of the lineup in this matchup and is considered week-to-week.
The Kraken held an 11-9 edge in high-danger chances versus the Canucks, which is pretty reasonable considering that the Canucks possessed a lead for the vast majority of the game. Aside from the horrid late collapse, you could argue that the Canucks actually played quite well, specifically from a defensive perspective.
With that said, the Kraken have been one of the league’s worst offensive teams this season, and the Canucks may not fare so well in tougher matchups with Hughes and Elias Pettersson sidelined.
Projected defence pairs via Daily Faceoff
Derek Forbort – Tyler Myers
Carson Soucy – Noah Juulsen
Erik Brannstrom – Vincent Desharnais
It looks as though head coach Rick Tocchet will keep the same defensive pairings in this matchup based on yesterday’s practice, which makes sense as they fared reasonably well versus the Kraken.
With Hughes and Filip Hronek sidelined, it is easy to point out that this is a well-below-average defensive core that will likely continue to struggle to drive play in the right direction. In December, Vancouver’s expected goal share was just 48.71%, and that sample only includes one game without Hughes, who has been the team’s top play-driver by a gigantic margin.
While Pettersson has underperformed expectations from a production standpoint, he has still been a better-than-average skater this season and has fared fairly well defensively in tough roles. His absence is certainly meaningful, even if the market is not overly happy with his play relative to expectations.
Kevin Lankinen will get the start in this matchup. He has played to a -0.1 GSAx and a .907 save percentage in 23 appearances this season.
Calgary Flames
Given that these two rivals enter this matchup holding nearly identical records, it’s interesting to consider how drastically different the vibe surrounding each team is currently. The Flames have vastly surpassed preseason expectations, and while many fans would love to receive a higher draft pick this summer, they have to be proud of the compete level Calgary has shown to hang around the playoff race.
Projected defence pairs via Daily Faceoff
Kevin Bahl – Rasmus Andersson
Joel Hanley – Mackenzie Weegar
Jake Bean – Brayden Pachal
With Hughes sidelined, there’s an argument to be made that both of Calgary’s top defensive pairings are vastly superior to what the Canucks are currently offering. In the month of December, Calgary has allowed fewer chances against than the Canucks with a 3.07 xGA/60 and also generated more scoring chances than Vancouver has at the other end of the ice (3.16 xGF/60).
While the Canucks hold more notable high-end talent, the Flames’ defensive core does a better job of driving play in the right direction offensively and defends more effectively in transition.
Dustin Wolf has been confirmed as the starting goaltender in this matchup. Wolf has played to a +5.1 GSAx rating this season and holds a save percentage of .912 in his 18 appearances.
Best bets for Canucks vs. Flames
The Canucks were significantly more successful than the Flames last season, and rightfully entered this year with higher expectations than Calgary. They have achieved a better overall record thus far than the Flames and, at full strength, still deserve to be viewed as the superior team.
All of those factors seem to be contributing to the Canucks being slightly overvalued in this specific matchup though, and there looks to be value backing the Flames on home ice.
What Hughes has meant to the Canucks this season can’t be overstated, and there aren’t many individual skaters in the league whose absence means more to their team than he currently does. Not only has he been playing at a downright incredible level, but the defenders who are taking over his minutes have not been remotely effective, which heightens the significance of his absence.
The Flames hold a better points percentage than the Canucks this month and also own better underlying numbers of late. While they don’t have the same kind of elite offensive talents as the Canucks, they feature a considerably deeper defensive core right now which should help them own more of the overall play in this matchup.
Best bet: Flames Moneyline -131 (Pinnacle), Play to -140
