Thatcher Demko will make his long-awaited season debut as the Vancouver Canucks host the St. Louis Blues Tuesday evening. The Canucks have played to a record of 14-8-2 in Demko’s absence and currently sit third in the Pacific Division.

The St. Louis Blues have played to a record of 5-1-0 under new head coach Jim Montgomery, including a record of 2-1-0 during their current four-game road trip.

I’ll detail the relevant game notes, as well as outline my favourite betting angle below.

Blues GM Doug Armstrong did not hesitate to bring in head coach Jim Montgomery after the Bruins fired him on November 19th and made a difficult decision to relieve former head coach Drew Bannister of his duties. Just last December, Bannister was appointed interim coach of the Blues before signing on as the full-time head coach this offseason. He did inspire a turnaround as the Blues played to a record of 29-19-5 under Bannister last season.

The Blues rank 28th in scoring 2.57 goals per game this season. So far under Montgomery, they have generated 3.77 xGF/60 and hold a 54.42% expected goal share.

Dylan Holloway and Philip Broberg have played well during their brief tenure with the Blues, but many of the team’s roster deficiencies still look the same this season.

They feature a relatively sub-par defensive core, which does not do a great job of helping to drive offensive play, and outside of the top line of Pavel Buchnevich, Robert Thomas and Jordan Kyrou, the forward corps is lacking dynamic talent.

Joel Hofer is expected to get the start in this matchup. He has played to a .904 save % and 2.93 GAA across eight appearances this season.

Things are looking up for the Canucks, as not only will last year’s Vezina Trophy runner-up return to the lineup in this matchup, JT Miller is set to return to practice tomorrow.

Demko’s return has the potential to provide a significant boost to the team, though it’s far from a guarantee he will perform at the level we saw last season after a significant injury. In 51 appearances last season, Demko held a +22.0 GSAx and .918 save %.

Though coach Rick Tocchet and the Canucks are likely pleased to have played to a record of 14-8-4 in Demko’s absence, there definitely is plenty of room for growth.

Over the last 10 games, the Canucks have played to an expected goal share of 44.93% and generated just 2.44 xGF/60. Their defensive results have been better than average in that span as they have allowed only 2.99 xGA/60, but they have been forced to lean on marginal victories and a strong power play to cover up for a lack of even strength offence too often of late.

The Canucks generated just 2.29 xGF versus a high-quality Tampa Bay Lightning team on Sunday but were able to hang around once again with a solid defensive performance.

While the Blues have benefitted from a ‘new-coach bounce’ thus far under Montgomery, I’m not convinced their improved play will hold over a larger sample. We saw the same thing happen just last year when they brought in Drew Bannister, and ultimately, their roster lacks offensive depth.

While the Canucks play has not been entirely convincing, it’s clear that Tocchet has instilled strong defensive tendencies in his group over the last two seasons. They have allowed 2.96 goals against over the last 15 games, but this spot provides them a promising avenue to clean things up.

With Demko making his first start of the season, I’m expecting the Canucks to bring an inspired defensive performance and allow their star netminder to find his legs. There is certainly some volatility in backing Demko to succeed in his first game back, but it’s still an angle I’m high on versus a relatively modest Blues offence.

You can parlay the Canucks to win the game with the Blues to score under 2.5 goals at +110, and I see value at that price.