The Vancouver Canucks and Buffalo Sabres will face off for the second time this season Tuesday evening. The Canucks won this season’s first meeting 4-3 in overtime on November 29th, and at that point, held the NHL’s 11th-best points percentage of .614. The Canucks’ win in the following matchup over the Detroit Red Wings was the last time they have won two consecutive games.

The Sabres have also fallen apart in the time since these teams last met, as since the last matchup, they hold a record of 6-14-3 and now rank 30th in the NHL standings. They suffered a 6-4 loss yesterday versus the Seattle Kraken and could potentially end up starting third-string goaltender James Reimer in this matchup with Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen listed as day-to-day.

I’ll detail the relevant game notes, as well as outline my favourite betting angle below.

The Sabres’ season has obviously been another massive letdown, as they are now almost a lock to miss the playoffs for a 14th consecutive season, despite preseason expectations that the team would play competitive hockey down the stretch.

With a record of 18-29 straight-up, betting the Sabres moneyline in every matchup would yield a -25.8% ROI this season, which is the second-worst mark in the league.

All of the factors which typically play into a highly unprofitable betting record have been there for the Sabres. They have blown more leads than any team in the league, are receiving worse play in goal than was expected entering the year, and hold a record of 4-5 in games ending past regulation.

We likely won’t have clarification upon whether or not it will be Luukkonen or Reimer starting in this matchup until after the morning skate, though the final confirmation may not be quite as significant as it sounds.

After playing at an incredible level throughout most of last season, Luukkonen has posted mediocre results in the first half of this campaign. He holds a -1.1 GSAx and .896% save percentage in 33 appearances, while Reimer holds a +2.9 GSAx and .891% save percentage in his first nine games played.

Since captain Rasmus Dahlin returned on December 20th, the Sabres have been playing somewhat more respectably, with a record of 6-7-1. They have scored 3.43 goals per game in that span, allowed 3.50 goals against per game, and ranked 23rd with an expected goal share of 47.1 percent.

A number of the Sabres’ young forwards have not lived up to their potential this season, including Dylan Cozens, Jack Quinn and Zach Benson, which has led to a fairly muted attack offensively. While you always have to put some onus on the players, the New Jersey Devils heavily underachieved last season with Lindy Ruff in the head coaching position. When you consider how many Sabres forwards aren’t living up to expectations, it seems fair to make a case that his dated offensive style isn’t helping his young stars live up to their potential.

Elliotte Friedman’s pre-game report that J.T. Miller was very close to being dealt to the New York Rangers overshadowed one of the Canucks’ best performances of the season, as they held the Edmonton Oilers’ high-powered offence to just two goals and earned a critical victory.

The other storyline which stole some of the headlines away from the Canucks earning a solid win was the feisty skirmishes at the end of the matchup,  which resulted in both Tyler Myers and Connor McDavid receiving three-game suspensions for high cross-checks.

Myers will serve game one of his suspension in this matchup, which has forced head coach Rick Tocchet to shake up his defence corps. Not only does Mark Friedman appear to be drawing back into the lineup for just the third time this season, but it appears that he will be paired with Quinn Hughes on the top unit. Carson Soucy skated with Filip Hronek on the second pairing, while Derek Forbert and Vincent Desharnais remained together on the third unit.

Over the last 22 games, the Canucks hold an expected goal share of just 46.91%, and have generated just 2.71 xGF/60. They have scored only 2.36 goals per game where it counts. They have not won back-to-back games in that span of play, though they have lost seven games in the novelty settlements coming past regulation.

In my article prior to the Canucks’ matchup versus the Los Angeles Kings, I discussed the Canucks’ inability to follow up their best performances with another strong showing, which is the spot they are in entering this matchup. Part of that weakness comes down to the fact that the team simply has not been that good and that the reality is those strong showings are the outliers right now.

With a record of 20-25 straight-up, betting the Canucks moneyline in each game this season would yield a -19.6% ROI. They have clearly held up a lot of value based on last season’s excellent results. A big part of handicapping the Canucks right now is deciding whether or not you believe they will start to perform closer to what we saw last season, as they do still seem priced in the betting markets with the expectation that at full health, they are better than we have seen so far in the 2024-25 campaign.

Thatcher Demko is expected to start after earning the win over the Oilers on Saturday. In 10 starts this season, Demko holds a -2.9 GSAx and a .871% save percentage.

The Canucks have a highly favourable spot here to finally earn consecutive wins, as the Sabres will be playing back-to-back and are just 8-12-2 on the road. Still, laying -181, considering the many flaws which the Canucks have exhibited for a lengthy sample of play, doesn’t look to provide much value.

While Tocchet’s decision to play Hughes with Friedman suggests he is looking for a little more balance on the blue line, it’s hard to imagine Hughes won’t end up playing huge minutes in most game scripts with Myers sidelined. He’s had eight shots on goal over the last two games and has averaged 7.1 shot attempts per game over his last 10 outings.

The Sabres have not defended overly well of late, and I think we will see another highly dominant performance from Vancouver’s captain in this matchup. At -131, I believe we are getting a good number to back Hughes recording three or more shots on target and would play it to -140.