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How low can the Canucks realistically go in the NHL standings?: Canucks Conversation
Photo credit: © Eakin Howard-Imagn Images
Dec 4, 2025, 09:00 ESTUpdated: Dec 4, 2025, 00:17 EST
On Wednesday’s episode of Canucks Conversation, David Quadrelli and Harman Dayal discussed a question that’s becoming more relevant by the day: just how low can the Vancouver Canucks realistically finish in the standings, and is a top-five pick in the 2026 NHL Draft actually within reach?
Harm began by looking at the landscape around the league.
“Some of the teams above them I’m expecting to come back to earth a bit,” he said. “A lot of them have been carried by excellent finishing and elite-level goaltending. I don’t know how sustainable that is, but they’ve already deposited a lot of points, so the threshold for a bottom-five finish is easier to meet than in years past.”
When it comes to teams that look like true bottom-five locks, Harm didn’t see many – but he did identify two.
“The only teams I look at as bottom-five locks this year, teams that are stronger contenders for Gavin McKenna than the Canucks, are the Nashville Predators and Flames,” he explained. “The Preds have the same terrible centre situation the Canucks have, they don’t have a Quinn Hughes-level game breaker, they’re probably going to sell at the deadline, and we saw last year what they are when they do that.”
“And the Flames are the lowest-scoring team in the NHL by a mile. Nazem Kadri is the only player on the team on pace for 45 or more points, and they’ve got the hardest strength of schedule left in the league. Those two teams are going to be tough to out-tank. But outside of Calgary and Nashville, the race to the bottom is completely wide open.”
Harm expanded on Calgary’s situation as a counterpoint.
“The Flames are bad, but they actually have a baseline level of defensive competence,” he said. “They don’t bleed high-danger chances the way the Canucks do, and their underlying metrics are fine. Dustin Wolf is the X-factor – there’s a realistic pathway for them to pick up points if he regains form. But they’re also likely going to sell off Rasmus Andersson and Nazem Kadri.”
Beyond those two, Harm sees volatility everywhere.
“You’ve got a bunch of these teams who are outperforming their underlying process because they’re finishing well offensively and getting out-of-this-world goaltending,” he said. “Is there a scenario where that goaltending lasts and these teams stay out of the bottom-five? Sure. But between the Kraken, Bruins, Sharks, and Blackhawks, I’d imagine one or two of them slip in the second half.”
One team in particular – Chicago – hinges on whether its surprising goaltending is real.
“Spencer Knight is a really talented goaltender,” Harm said. “He leads the league in goals saved above expected right now – saving more than one extra goal per game relative to a league-average goalie – and is on pace for 50 or 60 GSAX. Last year, Connor Hellebuyck didn’t even hit that at 49. Even if Knight is elite the rest of the season, I don’t think he can keep this level up. The Blackhawks give up a ton of looks.”
He compared Knight’s early-season pace to an outlandish offensive projection.
“It’s like when a star player starts the year on pace for 140 points,” he said. “You expect greatness, but not 140 points. That’s how I view Knight. Of that group though – Seattle, Boston, San Jose, Chicago – I think Chicago is the most legit of the bunch. Watching them, it feels like they have more drivers than just Bedard.”
As for Vancouver, their own profile might keep them in the conversation for a high pick whether they intend to or not.
“A big reason why the Canucks can stay competitive in this tank race is their defensive woes and inability to control five-on-five play,” Harm explained. “Their underlying profile resembles a team that should stay at the bottom of the standings.”
The data backs it up.
“For this season, they’ve controlled 43.9 percent of expected goals at five-on-five. And since 2021-22, there were 15 instances where a team had an expected goal share below 40 percent through December – nine of those 15 finished bottom five. I excluded teams who made coaching changes, since the Canucks aren’t doing that. Their numbers indicate they should stay this way.”
The only real variable that could lift the Canucks out of the basement?
“Thatcher Demko,” Harm said. “If he comes back, stays healthy, and operates at a high level, he’s going to thrive and steal points no matter how bad the defence is. And it’s the same conversation – to a lesser degree – with Filip Chytil. Those two players’ health status will matter, because if one or both return, that raises the Canucks’ floor by quite a bit.”
Watch the full replay of the show below!
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