As we write these words, the Abbotsford Canucks are about to enter into Game 6 of the Calder Cup Finals, their second of what could be three consecutive chances to win the Calder Cup. (Update: They did it!) It’s an accomplishment that has never been achieved by a Vancouver Canucks affiliate, and it’s being powered by a bevy of impressive individual performances.
Arturs Silovs is performing on another level, and is the odds-on favourite to win playoff MVP honours. (Update: He did it, too!) Linus Karlsson led the playoffs with 14 goals and 26 points in 23 games. Arshdeep Bains is right behind him with 24 points and led the playoffs with 17 assists. Kirill Kudryavtsev leads the entire postseason with a +18 rating. And that’s just a small sampling of the greatness going on in Abbotsford right now. Other individual performances deserve mention, too, like Phil di Giuseppe’s veteran leadership, or Max Sasson’s speed, which had him a post away from sealing the championship on Saturday evening.
As we said at the outset, as of this writing, we don’t know how Abbotsford’s story is going to end. (Update: Now we do, and it was in glory.) But we’ve seen enough of it already to know that it should matter. And how it should matter is through a number of these AHL stars getting a genuine opportunity to continue their momentum into the 2025/26 season with a real shot at bringing their talents to Vancouver.
But will they get that shot?
As we’ve written about at length already, Silovs’ situation is a distinct and separate one that will have to play out over the coming weeks.
But the opportunity left over for the rest of the Abbotsford roster will be heavily dependent on those other moves that GM Patrik Allvin and Co. make in the early goings of the Summer of 2025.
In a piece for The Athletic this past week, Thomas Drance spoke to the Canucks’ philosophy on this front, with specific reference to the Bains-Sasson-Karlsson line, along with the currently-injured Aatu Räty. Drance wrote that “In all of their cases, and for [Räty], who’s dealt with injury, the Canucks aren’t going to view them as players that they need to leave a spot open for in the NHL lineup this fall, though. As a matter of developmental philosophy, they will have to earn it at training camp.”
And that’s all well and good, philosophically speaking. No one wants NHL jobs to just be handed to young up-and-comers, and no one should be morally opposed to players having to earn their jobs in camp.
But there is a difference between having to earn a job and not being given a legitimate path toward earning one, and there’s always a danger that the Canucks veer closer to the second option as they navigate a critical offseason.
As it stands, the Canucks have nine full-time NHL forwards signed for the 2025/26 season in Elias Pettersson, Jake DeBrusk, Conor Garland, Filip Chytil, Dakota Joshua, Nils Höglander, Drew O’Connor, Teddy Blueger, and Kiefer Sherwood.
Then there are the five full-time NHL defenders in Quinn Hughes, Filip Hronek, Marcus Pettersson, Tyler Myers, and Derek Forbort. Realistically, we can probably also throw the other Elias Pettersson onto this list, as the front office has made it clear they view him that way.
Already, that’s 15 of 21 non-goalie roster spots essentially spoken for.
We also know that the Canucks are going to bring some new players into the mix. Their stated goal is to add multiple top-six capable forwards this offseason, with the leading priority the acquisition of a new 2C. Two new top-six forwards, without any departures, would leave just a small handful of spots available for the Abbotsford crew to fight over.
This fighting will be fiercest up front. On the back-end, you’ve got the aforementioned six D, and then a good chance that either Tom Willander or Victor Mancini completes the set as the third RD. Maybe it’s both of them, actually, in the form of a bit of a three-man rotation with Forbort.
Others, like Kudryavtsev, will get looks in training camp, but will probably have to wait for injuries and future years for opportunities.
Up front, however, you’ve got a dwindling amount of roster spots and an awful lot of folks knocking on the door.
Of that Abbotsford top line, both Bains and Karlsson require waivers to be sent down. Sasson retains waiver exemption status for now, but that shouldn’t take away from his chances of making the Vancouver roster, especially with his established NHL speed.
Then there are players like Jonathan Lekkerimäki, who might not be making as large of an impact in the AHL playoffs as the more veteran players, but who is seen as having an overall brighter future.
And then there is the set of players whose amount of step-up in Abbotsford this postseason merits a second look. We’re talking Di Giuseppe and Sammy Blais here. We’re talking Danila Klimovich, the apparent overtime specialist. We’re talking Ty Mueller, who already made his NHL debut late last season.
We’re also, by necessity, talking Räty. A late-season injury has held him out of Abbotsford’s run, but he, too, runs out of waiver exemption status as of July 1, and so it’s either NHL or waivers for him next season.
That’s already a tight field of competition. We’ve mentioned a full eight forwards who could merit consideration for a roster spot in 2025/26 – and we could have mentioned a couple more – and they’ll be competing over what looks to be a maximum of about three spots.
Which, we’ll say, is not a problem, really. Some competition is guaranteed and healthy. No one is expecting each and every one of these players to make the transition from Abbotsford to Vancouver next year. Some cuts will have to be made.
It’s the possibility of the Canucks front office further reducing the amount of opportunity through a slew of depth UFA signings that has us the most worried here.
The Canucks have traditionally been a busy team at free agency time under the Allvin regime. Last year, Vancouver signed five forwards within the first few weeks of July, from DeBrusk to Sherwood to Danton Heinen to Nathan Smith to Daniel Sprong. Results-wise, it was a mixed bag. A year before, they signed Blueger and Pius Suter.
No one can be too upset with the Canucks’ record here. It’s more hits than misses, and the misses haven’t been too consequential.
But now might be the time for the Canucks to switch their approach away from signing so many depth UFAs on a yearly basis.
There is a need for the team to focus on quality over quantity this summer. The team’s goal is, and should be, to add another player or two of the same calibre as DeBrusk to their top-six, if not a higher calibre.
But if they do what they normally do and sign a bunch of UFA veterans to fill out the depth chart, where does that leave the Abbotsford crew?
The front office can say anything they like about ‘earning spots.’ That’s all well and good, but we all know that certain NHL contracts result in close-to-guaranteed NHL jobs.
If, for example, the Canucks were to sign another Heinen-type this offseason, that’s the sort of situation we’re talking about. A clear bottom-six talent, but one with a salary – like Heinen’s $2.25 million – high enough to ensure they don’t get cut. We all know a player like that, freshly signed, will be kept on the roster regardless of their being out-competed in camp.
Thus, the Canucks can’t sign a bunch of these players and still say they’re giving the Abbotsford crew an honest shot.
The solution, however, seems straightforward enough, and it is that quality over quantity approach. The Canucks need more talent and firepower up top. When they acquire it, it will naturally push other forwards down their depth chart. But the Canucks should make efforts to ensure that the bottom-end of that depth chart is still open-ended, and not gunked up with UFA plugs like Daniel Sprong.
Acquiring two top-six forwards this offseason, assuming no one is traded away in the process, and no further depth options would leave the Canucks with at least two or three forward jobs left over for the likes of Karlsson, Bains, Sasson, Lekkerimäki, Di Giuseppe, Blais, Mueller, and Klimovich to battle over. And we can’t forget Räty, either.
That’s still far from a guarantee, unless we’re talking a guarantee of some difficult cuts. But that’s still a genuine opportunity, and one can definitely make the argument that it’s a genuine opportunity this crew has earned. Enough so, anyway, that these players shouldn’t have the opportunity effectively taken away from them before they’ve even made it to Training Camp 2025.
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