Making your first selection deep in the draft order can be arduous for teams devoid of draft capital. As a rule of thumb, the further down the order, the more upside typically drops, and uncertainty only rises. While every prospect is a project in their own right, when you reach the third round of the NHL Draft, it can be a whole other animal.
This was the situation the Vancouver Canucks were in when they made their first selection of the 2024 NHL Entry Draft, taking Melvin Fernström with the 93rd pick.
Fernström, a 6-foot-2, right-hand shot winger for Örebro HK, was an overly productive player across his draft year. Third in scoring across Sweden’s U20 league, the J20 Nationell, Fernström tallied 63 points across 45 games on a loaded offensive team.
While the consensus is that this was a weaker draft year for Sweden, this shouldn’t detract from the tidy season Fernström put together. Across the entire league, only two players produced more, Fernström ending the year only two points back from league-leading scorer Joel Jonsson, an undrafted 20-year-old.
Beyond the numbers, the Swedish forward was a true dual-threat attacker who flexes an extremely proactive game; Fernström’s offensive profile is deep and cerebral.
Role as a Shooter and Finisher
The leading goal scorer in the J20 Nationell, Fernström built chances through a few different avenues.
His best offensive habit, bar none, is his off-puck pass support. Processing ahead of the play, the Swedish winger operates like a chess master calculating their next few moves. He slips behind coverages, times his activations into pass lanes, and rotates with the flow of the play to always be available.
He ups his motor tactically, sets his stick to shoot, and hunts the inside of the ice, primarily around the slot, to leverage more dangerous chances. Fernström is at his best when he’s in motion, punishing puck-watching defenders, all while finding pockets of space. One and two-touch shots, often stretching the opposing goaltenders out east to west, are common occurrences across his tape.
While Fernström’s shooting is above average, he doesn’t necessarily possess an otherworldly release. Nevertheless, his shooting habits are more advanced than they seem at first glance, which helps supplement a lack of overwhelming power.
Adding deception through angle changes, it’s not uncommon to see Bålsta-born forward load a shot up working downhill, only to drag the puck inward, completely changing the vector of his shot.
On top of this, he’s a heavy user of screens, waiting to release pucks as traffic forms, even shooting through defenders’ triangles — the area between the defender’s stick and ice. Imagine a goaltender not being able to see the release of the shot, only for the puck to fly through the legs of a defender in front of you.
Layer this all together, and you have a player already leveraging more advanced tactics to hit twine. Most advanced shooters at the NHL level incorporate these habits.
Beyond the off-puck work and deceptive shooting, Fernström’s role as a shoot-first, one-time threat was clear across his tape. Operating off the left-hand circle, his precision stood out, picking tricky spots below the goaltender’s arms and just above their pads. At times, Fernström sacrifices power by contacting the puck behind his stance. Adjusting his feet quicker, becoming stronger, and leveraging proper mechanics means there is more potential to unlock here.
Why his playmaking may be more impressive
Piggy-backing off his off-puck play reading, Fernström’s vision stood out across his tape, especially off the cycle. He loved to stretch pucks east-west, connecting with teammates through heavy layers.
If anything, his greatest strength is the speed at which he identifies the best pass option. He essentially has an internal compass that instantly pings the best pass option.
With some subtle eye-line and fake-shot manipulation, he is also already freezing opponents to open up seams. In addition to area passing and other skilled plays like slip and saucer feeds, Fernström proved to be a diverse distributor throughout his draft year.
The biggest issue with Fernström’s playmaking revolves around where he operates on the ice. When he isn’t working off-puck, in the slot, he tends to be far too perimeter while on-puck. This means that most of his playmaking efforts are funnels into the slot. This extends into transition, where he still flashes a fair amount of skill but is far less prolific.
Unfortunately, he heavily relies on the extra space provided by the larger ice surface, a luxury he will not be afforded in North American hockey. This is a common issue for Swedish prospects and is one of the more significant adjustments when they cross the pond. It could mean translatability issues if it’s not corrected.
Hard Skill Habits and why it matters
Hard skill is paramount to success in the NHL game. Being able to handle physicality, protect the puck, and operate with superior positioning is the basis for creating advantages in a highly competitive environment like the playoffs. When it comes to prospects, especially from regions that utilise a large ice surface, there is less of a need to develop strategies to beat physical pressure. More space means fewer opportunities for defenders to push physical aggression. Fernström has picked up the moniker of being an easy player to play against. While it’s true in some senses, he’s farther along than one would imagine.
Across his tape, there were numerous examples of a higher-end protection game. From protecting the puck at his hip to driving with his knee leveraging a lower centre of gravity, Fernström’s power game, especially off the rush, was dangerous this past season.
In particular, his best habit was his desire to win inside positioning on defenders. He joists, takes steps inside, and explodes under defenders to free his stick. You see this mostly in transition, mainly as Fernström works to get open in a high-danger area.
While it’s doubtful that he will be able to burn NHL defenders wide for the same opportunities, this is more about how he created the advantages. Even on the forecheck, he fights for inside positioning. Fernström does struggle to escape perimeter pins, but that is more a function of lack of strength than poor habits. He isn’t a small player, either — he’s actually taller than Brock Boeser. Operating at 187 pounds, the expectation is that Fernström still has some runway to add more strength.
Additionally, Fernström’s ability to up his motor defensively, get under puck carriers’ sticks, and strip pucks led to a large amount of counter-attack offence this past season.
Limitations and Future Development
Fernström’s projection becomes an issue when we examine his skating. The most deficient tool in his arsenal, his inability to separate north from south, represents a major hurdle that he will have to overcome.
His biggest issue is his lack of explosiveness, especially off his first two steps. As he recovers and pushes off into a toe flick, Fernström fails to generate enough power. He also loses significant speed as he transitions from the crossover into his forward stride, his posture falling backwards, and his knees taking far too long to activate past his toes.
The outcome is simple. He succumbs to aggressive back pressure, fails to use his edges to adjust his routes in transition, and becomes a straight-line attacker easily guided to the outside. This is why much of his on-puck work is often on the perimeter.
While Fernström will require a lot of work to improve his mechanics or increase his stride frequency, he isn’t alone in Vancouver’s prospect pool. At least from the outside looking in, the organisation tends to put less importance on skating ability in favour of other skills. This, by proxy, is a bet on their developmental team and their ability to improve prospects’ skating to a professional level — an area of the team that is being invested in heavily.
What is Fernström’s future?
It’s clear that given what was available at 93rd overall, Fernström represents a high upside, low certainty bet — typical of what players typically go in that range. The difficulty of his projection comes down to his future role. As an offense-oriented, powerplay producer, he likely must play in a top-six to fully leverage his skill set.
Will he be able to eclipse a typical top-six winger in the NHL if the stars align? Barring some major steps in the next few years, it’s not likely in Vancouver. This could ultimately inform the next steps in his development. Can the organisation find a niche that he can occupy in the middle of the lineup? I think it’s possible, considering some of his habits. The SHL is a solid next step, but minutes are tough for young players to come by. We will have to see how things unfold.
Regardless of the following steps, the strategy behind drafting Fernström is sound. He may not pan out, but swinging for the fences is always the ideal outcome in the middle of the order when mining for value — especially if you believe you have the coaching and development staff to take the player to the next level.
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