The Canucks exited January with a 6-6 record, making it the second month in a row where they’ve barely managed to earn an average of one point per game played. The entered February in 7th place in the west, down from 5th at the end of December, with teams like the Kings, Flames, and Stars getting closer in their rear view mirror. After the exciting mirage that was the first two months of the season, the team is exposing themselves to be exactly what most pundits expected – a team that will have to claw their way into a wild card spot. 

Find out more about the month that was after the jump.

In today’s NHL, a .500 record isn’t usually good enough to make it into the playoffs. What makes January’s .500 record most concerning is that 4 of the 6 wins came from teams not currently in a playoff position (Buffalo, Florida, Carolina, and Philadelphia). Against playoff teams, (and yes, the Stanley Cup cup champs make my definition of playoff team regardless of what the February 1st standings say), the Canucks earned two wins and were handed five losses. While management still clings to the goal of making the playoffs, it is becoming clear that as they are constructed today, the team is no longer a contender.  

February will be a critical month for the Canucks, as they have a packed 15 game schedule, and play 6 games against teams they are fighting for playoff positions with (Wild x 3, Flames, Sharks, and Jets). The Wild, in particular, have underperformed this year, and are looking at these three contests as an opportunity to steal the Canucks’ playoff spot. With the March 2nd trade deadline just around the corner, the early part of February could play a key role in determining what direction the franchise will go.

The graph below shows the save percentage for Lack and Miller in the first four months of the season:

One of the bright spots in January was the play of Ryan Miller, who posted his best month of season by far. This was highlighted a three game stretch against Philadelphia, Carolina, and Florida where he stopped 81 out of 82 shots. Eddie Lack had a pretty quiet month with only three starts. He was solid against the Islanders and Flames, but fell apart in the dying minutes of his start against the Predators and ended up getting ventilated by Nashville’s potent offense (yes, you read that right).

Below is the quality starts for Lack & Miller. Note: a “quality start” is defined as a game where the goalie’s save percentage is higher than the league average rate of 0.910:  

Similar to the trend we see with save percentage, quality starts shows again the positive trend we expected to see for the Lack/Miller tandem. As a tandem, Lack and Miller are slightly above average in terms of save percentage, and give their team an opportunity to win more than they don’t. Slightly above average is what we expected from them, and that’s what they’re providing. The Canucks are no longer a “real good” team, but you can’t lay that on the goalies. 

The table below shows even-strength CF% for each defender, by month:

\

There were actually a number of solid positives in January for the Canucks from the perspective of their defense corps. The Edler/Tanev pairing has continued to provide the Canucks with legitimate top pair minutes in every area except point production, but they’re not exactly alone in that regard. The defense only managed to contributed two even strength goals for the month. 

Benning and Co. have to be kicking themselves for not signing Tanev long-term last summer given how good he’s been this year, especially in light of a lower than expected 2015-16 salary cap, which has been something we’ve been leery of since November. 

Another positive was the return of Dan Hamhuis from injury. Hamhuis had his best puck possession month of the season, showing seemingly instant chemistry with Frank Corrado. Corrado’s play with Hamhuis is actually quite encouraging considering Kevin Bieksa hasn’t played top 4 quality minutes all year, and appears to be in steady decline. 

Off the ice, Trader Jim swung a minor deal, selling high on 2015 5th rounder Gustav Forsling after a strong World Junior tournament to snag AHL all-star defensemen in Adam Clendening. Clendening is undersized by NHL standards at 5-11/190lbs, but its not exactly a reach to think he’ll be an improvement over Luca Sbisa, Yannick Weber, and Ryan Stanton. Clendening improves the Canucks defensive depth, and is a nice return on investment for a 2015 5th rounder, but let’s not kid ourselves into thinking he’ll be a core piece of the team going forward. 

The interesting part of this trade was that it was the second time in a year that one of the league’s better teams has brokered a trade with the Canucks to move a prospect they no longer had room in their system for. Canucks fans should be asking themselves how it is possible that the Blackhawks and Kings have developed such an enviable group of prospects despite winning cups for the last few years. If the Canucks are going to rebuild into a contender in the not too distant future, it it is going to take more than just handouts like Adam Clendening from better managed teams. They need to start producing an excess of prospects too.

As for the rest of the Canucks defense core, despite ample opportunity to prove themselves this season, Sbisa, Weber and Stanton have failed to show that they’re talent level is above 3rd pair, and at this stage there’s should be serious doubt any of them should be re-signed in the offseason. 

Unfortunately, the Forward corps production in January was more similar to what we saw in December than what we saw in October and November: 

Amazingly (depressingly?), 10 out of Vancouver 13 regular forwards had their worst month for points per 60 minutes at even strength ice time during the month of January. Seriously, where do you start when your most productive forwards in the month are Nick Bonino, Shawn Matthais, and Jannik Hansen, and are all tied for the team “lead’ at a paltry 1.3 points per 60 minutes – good for a below-average 3rd line level?

The most concerning trend is the continued decline in production at even strength for the Sedins. Much of this was driven by low on-ice shooting percentage, which continues to plague the team, but it’s also been going on for the better part of two years: 

The graph above tells the story for January for the Canucks. With four of the top six (Sedins, Vrbata, and Bonino) suffering from below 4% on-ice shooting percentage, it should be no surprise that they only managed to go 6-6 in the month. I would normally expect some regression from the Sedins, in particular, but the trend line as the season wears on is reason for significant concern given the lack of production from forward group is behind them over the past two months.

The silver lining was in even-strength shot attempt differential in January, where most players rebounded from a poor possession metrics in December: 

 With the injury to Brad Richardson, and overall poor offensive performance, Coach Willie has had to shuffle his lines bottom three lines a bit, with the current iterations featuring Higgins-Vey-Burrows on the second line. This makes a lot of sense considering Vey’s possession numbers have steadily improved each month as the season has worn on, and he has played very well when on the ice with Chris Higgins (GF% 75.0, CF% 55.0 in 103 minutes). Bonino now centers the 3rd line with Matthias and Hansen, which also makes a bit a sense as he’s been goals-for and corsi-for neutral or better when paired with either players (Hansen: GF% 66.7, CF% 50.0, in 102 minutes, Matthias: GF% 50.0, CF% 53.5 in 77 minutes). 

With Dorsett out, the fourth line was briefly held down by Horvat, Kassian, and Latvian rookie Ronalds Kenins. Soon to be former Canuck Zack Kassian quietly had a strong possession month in January too, but this went largely unnoticed given his low on-ice shooting percentage. With Brad Richardson expected to be out of the lineup for a while, this could be Kassian’s opportunity to prove his worth, but its just as likely that he’ll get that chance with another club. 

The table below shows key statistics for the Canucks when at even-strength, on the power play, or on the penalty kill, by month and year-to-date:  

At even strength, it appears the reality is that we’re looking at a middle of the pack possession team that struggles mightily to score at even strength. You have to wonder how bad January could have been if not for the strong goaltending they received and fortuitous shooting percentages on the power play.

If there was any doubt about the value Chris Tanev brings to the table, then one only needs to look at how well the Canucks have played shorthanded, and how critical that has been to keeping this team competitive this year. 

There were definitely some bright spots for the Canucks in January, namely the play of Dan Hamhuis and Frank Corrado, improved goaltending from Ryan Miller, a downright dominant penalty kill unit, and Jim Benning’s move to improve defensive depth with the Adam Clendening trade. 

However, the inability to generate offense at even strength is worrying, and the declining even strength play of the Canucks core raises significant questions around how far this team will go if they do make it into the playoffs, let alone how they’ll fare beyond the 2014-15 season. 

Let’s hope we see the team bounce back in February, as management (and ownership) seems pretty set against going into full-on rebuild mode. Then again, maybe even management is realizing that its not much fun for fans to watch the slow death spiral of the best Canucks era that ever was.