Welcome back to an ongoing series in which we discuss the most prominent Goals and Expectations for each Vancouver Canucks player in the upcoming 2024/25 NHL season.
Since arriving in Vancouver, JT Miller has taken his game to a new level. Sure, there’s been ups and downs when it came to the team’s performance, but what couldn’t be doubted was the competitiveness that Miller brought to each and every game.
In 2023-24, that competitiveness translated into a season to remember. Miller led the team with 103 points, a career-high, while passion and fire manifested itself as leading by example on the ice. He provided more than just offence, tasked with matching up against some of the league’s best in the regular season and playoffs, doing whatever job was asked of him to help the team win games. Vancouver’s MVP once more captured fans’ hearts, merely a season after some questioned if he burned too hot for this Canucks squad.
Miller doused plenty of critics when it came to his defensive play. Hard-matching against Connor McDavid is no easy feat, and yet when the stakes were highest, it was Miller who was entrusted and performed as admirably as anyone could against the best player in hockey. It’s a role that not many could’ve imaged as early as the 2022-23 season.
Entering the 2024-25 season, JT Miller is 31-turning-32 years old. While his play has taken another step forward (and then some) under Rick Tocchet this past season, Father Time is yet undefeated. While age-related decline shouldn’t hit too hard yet, what will this season hold for JT Miller? What are reasonable expectations, and goals?
Exceeding Expectations: Miller hits 40 goals and breaks the 100 point barrier again.
Miller’s point total of 103 came with 37 goals. That’s another career-high mark, with two consecutive 32-goal campaigns in the season prior. Adding those 5 goals seems to have come from a much higher shooting percentage in the 2023-24 season, Miller recording a 19.1 S%. Comparatively, the two 32-goal seasons were at 15.5 and 14.3 S%, and his career average sits at 13.2 S%.
If Miller somehow hits 40 goals, it’ll be well past what his 2024-25 season was. Sure, he was only three goals off, but this is assuming that he can keep up that shooting percentage from the high-tide mark. What adds a wrinkle is that in 2023-24, Miller took fewer shots and shot attempts than in 2022-23. If he records the same amount of shots at the same shooting percentage, that’s a 42-goal season.
Naturally, that leaves Miller to make up the difference in assists to hit 100 points. That’s not entirely out of the question, as he’s tallied up 60+ assists now twice in his career with a 50-helper campaign in 2022-23 and 45 assists in 69 games in 2019-20. It would require his linemates at 5v5 and special teams to convert, but if Miller keeps up his career-high marks, it would be within a shout of another 100-point season.
Nothing about keeping up his production from 2023-24 is a guarantee, which is why doing so and hitting a milestone in goals should be considered exceeding expectations from JT Miller. He should have better linemates for this season, at the very least, and there is a chance that he could improve on his point totals.
Meeting Expectations: Point per game, ~30 goals, continue to be a two-way center
The JT Miller was a consistent point-per-game player until the 2021-22 and 2023-24 seasons and should continue to be the expectation going forth until demonstrably not. It’s more realistic to expect him to produce according to his career rates in Vancouver (which are pretty darn good anyway). Miller should see a similar deployment as he did last year, and even accounting for some regression back to his career norms, shouldn’t drop too much below historic production.
In his 5 seasons with the Canucks, Miller has only not been on pace for 30 goals once – the horrendous 2020-21 season. It should be a safe bet to go with a ballpark figure of 30 goals yet again, accounting for a reduction in shooting percentage as well as looking at his previous season tallies.
Probably the biggest part of meeting expectations is maintaining that two-way presence that made Miller so valuable against big-time matchups. There was a reputation of him floating on the defensive end, which wasn’t entirely undeserved after some lapses in concentration or simply just letting the frustration get the better of him.
But, he’s definitely turned that reputation around with much more hustle and attention to detail, none the more apparent than under the brightest of lights. Having your leading point-scorer also being one of the most effective matchup centers was a treat, and for Miller, that’s something that you would hope to come to expect.
Below expectations: Heavy regression on both ends, sub PPG.
Being slightly below point-per-game doesn’t fall under this one. If Miller were to stay healthy for all 82 games and finish under 70 points, however, that would become a cause for concern. With how much the Canucks needed his production last year, having him fall short of his career rates would mean that one of his teammates would definitely need to step up to the plate to fill the void.
If they don’t, then Miller would be on the precipice of being an anchor contract just at the age of 32, with the “worst” years of the deal still yet to come. One season shouldn’t make or break his body of work, but it would cause a lot more concern that the aging curve has caught up to him fast, and the Canucks will need to rejig accordingly with that $8 million cap hit.
Then there’s the defensive side. If Miller can’t be trusted with handling the opposition’s best, whether it’s from being a step slower or not as bought in as the year previous, then the Canucks will have their work cut out for them. Vancouver doesn’t have a true matchup line that could handle the brunt of opposing stars. Especially as the team looks to compete against the likes of the Edmonton Oilers again, having Miller regress from his matchup duties will hurt.
Goals for JT Miller in 2024-25
- Hit 35 goals
- Reach 90 points
- Continue excellent two-way play
- Lead the Canucks by example
It’s a pretty straight shot when it comes to what Miller’s goals in terms of production should be going into this season. While expecting him to recapture last year’s production is the hope, a realistic goal of 35-ish goals, 90-ish points is pretty within reach. That amount of production won’t represent a big drop-off from his career highs and should give credence to the idea that Miller hasn’t hit his decline.
The biggest part about the goals is what he brings, however. Wearing the A last year, Miller demonstrated how his heart-on-his-sleeve approach can buoy the energy in favour of his team, and the group seemed to respond to the passion that he played with each night. If Miller can keep up his defensive play and continue to lead the Canucks by example, then Vancouver is in a pretty good spot through the 2024-25 campaign.
Sponsored by bet365