The Vancouver Canucks have already tried to secure David Backes’ services in free agency and barring anything unexpected it appears as though the opportunity will present itself a second time.

Backes, who has played his entire ten-season career with the St. Louis Blues, will enter free agency for just the second time in his career, this time an unrestricted free agent. Meaning the Blues won’t have a seven-day window to match the Canucks offer, should they make one — or any other teams, for that matter. Though cost dependant, the Blues, an internal budget team, might not have the resources to match even if they had the opportunity.

The Blues, who seem very much interested in retaining their captain, have reportedly tried to secure his services long-term at $5.5-million per. That wasn’t enough. Rumours persist that they might be willing to go $6-million for four seasons, but to quote Elliotte Friedman “I still don’t think at this point in time that’s going to get it done”. Bringing Backes into the fold could prove an expensive exercize, but he fits the mould for the type of player the Canucks relish.

HERO Chart:

Career Stats:

(Source: TSN.ca)

Scouting Report:

The reality for whichever team incurs the expense associated with luring Backes is that he’s no longer the premier shutdown centre he used to be. Backes might be able to continue playing a shutdown role for the next few seasons, but if the last two are any indication, he’s no longer able to dominate in that capacity.

Perhaps Backes’ decline can be attributed to the hard-minutes often associated with playing the role of a shutdown centre. Backes has averaged well north of 200 hits per 82 games over his ten seasons in the NHL, which at first glance seems a very taxing total. Based on the findings by Canucks Army and Hockey-Graphs alumni, MoneyPuck, handing players with this kind of track record can prove an especially risky proposition as they enter into their mid-thirties.

At 32-years-old, Backes seems a likely candidate for the type of age-related decline outlined by MoneyPuck’s article for Hockey-Graphs. I do wonder, though, if Backes’ abilities beyond his checking might serve to buck the trend, if ever so slightly. It could serve as the difference between Backes fading into fourth-line irrelevance and carving out a third-line role as dusk rolls in on his career.

For the purpose of next season, though, Backes could likely play in a top-six role at any forward position. Though he’s a natural centre, Backes has played on the wing in spot duty and fared just as well. In fact, as his speed leaves him, the wing might be more suiting and puts him in a position to capitalize on his plus-size in the offensive zone.

The Fit:

Few players embody what the Canucks emphasize in their roster development like Backes. He’s a big-bodied centre, who’s known primarily for his shutdown ability and by all accounts an excellent leader. If the Canucks are happy with Derek Dorsett rubbing shoulders with their next wave of talent, they will love Backes.

The Canucks have the cap space to make this work. You’ll find that’s a recurring theme in this series, though. It’s a question of whether allocating part of that opening for another centre, who just turned 32, is the best use of that money. Backes can help the Canucks next season, but will the added value in the short term merit the long term expenditure likely to hang over them as an albatross in seasons three and four? Remember, Backes has one last chance to cash in and I’m sure he’ll be looking for term.

Conclusion:

Backes has enjoyed a successful career to this point and likely has a few more such years left in him. He’s no longer the shutdown, first line centre we’ve come to know and appreciate from afar, but on a second line he could likely thrive. The problem is, the Canucks haven’t a second-line position for Backes to occupy. Certainly not at centre.

The Canucks are committed to Henrik Sedin, Brandon Sutter, Bo Horvat and Markus Granlund for next season and beyond. That’s four centres already. If they qualify Linden Vey, bring that total to five. If the Canucks are signing Backes, either he or Sutter will be playing along the wing. Not the worst outcome, but far from ideal since there playing a premier position accounts for a sizeable part of the price of admission.

Something tells me the Canucks won’t be going back to this well. Though, how interesting would that be? Eight years after they first tried to lure Backes from the Blues at $2.5-million per. Something tells me the sticker price is a lot higher this go around, though.

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