Rebuilding on the Fly – Part 5 – Later Round Draft Targets

8 years ago

In this series, I’ve contemplated how the Canucks could achieve their “rebuild on the fly” goal of winning now while incrementally moving towards becoming a contender again.

In the first part of the series, I argued that the Canucks should look to move Chris Higgins, the rights to Shawn Matthias, and 2016 UFA’s Radim Vrbata, Kevin Bieksa, and Dan Hamhuis in exchange for draft picks and cap space. In my second and third parts, I suggested forward and defense UFA targets that are worth a look in the efforts of keeping the team reasonably competitive while the rebuild happens through the draft and prospect development.

In terms of the upcoming 2015 draft, I profiled Nick Merkley, Evgeni Svechnikov, Daniel Sprong, Filip Chlapik, Jansen Harkins, Michael Spacek and Anthony Beauvillier as potential first round selections. Using the PCS% system I discussed here.

Now we’ll get into players the Canucks should target in later rounds of the draft after the jump.

The real value in the Prospect Cohort Success % (PCS) method come in evaluating undervalued prospects, especially later in the draft. Let’s see which names pop up as potential high-percentage bets:

Round 2 Round Targets (Consensus Ranked 41-60)

Name	Position	Team	League	Consensus	Height	GP	G	A	Pts	P/GM	PCS%	PCS P/GM	PCS N
Jens Looke	LW/RW	Brynäs	SHL	42	184	43	2	4	6	0.06	36%	0.62	33
Erik Cernak	D	HC Kosice	Slovakia	48	192	43	5	8	13	0.3	33%	0.21	3
Gabriel Carlsson	D	Linkoping	SHL	50	193	7	0	2	2	0.29	44%	0.23	9
Jack Roslovic	C/RW	U.S. National U18 Team	USHL	55	185	25	11	27	37	1.48	50%	0.7	6
Rasmus Andersson	D	Barrie	OHL	56	182	50	9	41	50	1	42%	0.31	21
Vince Dunn	D	Niagara	OHL	58	183	68	18	38	56	0.82	32%	0.31	53

Jens Looke LW/RW (CSS EU 10, Button 51, Pronman 51)

Looke first caught my eye when looking at draft eligible prospects at the World Juniors. His numbers don’t exactly pop off the page, but as is the case with most 17 year olds in the SHL, Looke played limited minutes, less than 7 minutes a game. On a points/60 basis, Looke scored 1.24P/60 min, which is pretty close to the rate that William Nylander scored last year for Modo (1.44P/60). In terms of his PCS stats, he coming from a relatively large cohort group, with 33 players with, 36% of which went on to successful NHL careers. His closest statistical comparable is Frans Nielsen, although Anton Lander, Magnus Paajarvi, Mike Zibanejad, and Alex Steen are all close as well. Looke is known as a highly skilled playmaker who plays and up-tempo game.

Erik Cernak D (CSS EU 16, Button 100, Pronman 20)

Cernak is another player I’ve highlighted in the past, as he’s been playing in top tournaments for Slovakia for quite a while. He’s been playing in the Slovak Extraliga for two years now, which is impressive for any prospect, but especially when considering his team HC Kosice, was the top team in the league. According to ESPN’s Corey Pronman, Cernak has high end skating, puck handling, and a very well developed two way game, although the knock on him appears to be his decision making.

Gabriel Carlsson D (CSS EU 2, ISS 30, Button 78, Pronman 90)

The disparity in rankings for Carlsson are huge, with the groups that tend to overvalue size ranking him very high (CSS/ISS), and groups that traditionally place a high value on skill (Pronman/Button) rating him a bit lower. Pronman points out that he’s excellent in his own end, which is likely why the coaches at Linkoping decided to give him a respectable 12:18 in TOI/GP in a 7 game stint in the SHL (former Canuck prospect Gustav Forsling played 17:24/GP for the same team this year). There were 9 players in his PCS cohort who went on to play over 200 NHL games. Given his “projectable frame” I expect some team will reach for in the late first or early second round, but if he’s on the board later in the second or early third he’s definitely worth a look.

Jack Roslovic C/RW (CSS NA 39, McKeen’s 30, Button 82, Pronman 53)

US Development program players can be a bit tricky to forecast, given how high the quality of their team mates can be. Friend of the blog, Bryan Nikkel (@bryan_nikkel) noted to me that Roslovic spent a fair amount of time on a line with Auston Matthews and Matthew Tkachuk, both of who are top prospects for the 2016 draft. There were only 6 close matches to Roslovic, but they included both Paul Stastny and Thomas Vanek, who scored at a very similar rate to Roslovic in their draft years in the USHL. Aaron Portzline, of the Columbus Dispatch, had an excellent story on Roslovic’s ascension up the draft ranks this year, which is definitely worth a read. Corey Pronman also highlights his skating, two-way play, and on-ice vision.

Rasmus Andersson D (CSS NA 93, Button 33, Pronman 27)

Andersson isn’t the biggest defensemen, which is likely why CSS has him ranked so much lower than Button or Pronman. However, when you look at his closest comparables, 42% went on to be NHLers, ranking him among the top 20 draft eligible players by PCS% in this draft. I’m not going to spend too much time on him, as I’ve covered him in the past and Rhys profiled him recently. When all of us at Canucks Army agree on a prospect one thing is certain – he’ll be drafted by the Jets.

Vince Dunn D (CSS NA 32, Button 50, Pronman 79)

Dunn is an interested prospect. He’s an excellent skater, and his offensive production is at the top of his draft class, although he did have the benefit of playing with Brendan Perlini and Josh Ho-Sang in Niagara this year. Then again, most CHLers are playing with someone talented. Amongst 17 year-olds, Dunn ranked second amongst OHL defensemen in even strength points (29), first in the CHL in terms of goals, and top 5 in the CHL in points. The knock on him is his defensive game and his size (6’0/185lb). That said, his closest comparables include players like Brad Stuart, Trevor Daley, and Dimitri Kulikov, with a PCS of 32%, so this is an excellent bet for a late 2nd/3rd round pick.

Third Round Targets and Beyond

Name	Position	Team	League	Consensus	Height	GP	G	A	Pts	P/GM	PCS%	PCS P/GM	PCS N
Yakov Trenin	C	Gatineau	QMJHL	73	188	58	18	49	67	1.16	29%	0.409	125
Veeti Vainio	D	Blues U20	Jr. A SM-liiga	88	187	42	13	31	44	1.05	33%	0.47	6
Dmytro Timashov	LW	Québec	QMJHL	137	177	66	19	71	90	1.36	23%	0.437	35
Thomas Schemitsch	D	Owen Sound	OHL	196	191	68	14	35	49	0.72	33%	0.219	48
Kay Schweri	RW	Sherbrooke	QMJHL	NR	178	53	12	56	68	1.28	25%	0.45	87

Yakov Trenin LW/C (CSS NA 48, Button 65, Pronman 78)

This was Trenin’s rookie year in the QMJHL, having played the prior year in the Russian junior league (MHL). He adapted very well to the North American game, and was top 5 in QMJHL rookie scoring behind Dmytro Timashov, Evgeny Svechnikov, Filip Chlapik, and Kay Schweri.

To get I a better view on him, I reached out to Guillaume Gervaise, a QMJHL scout for Future Considerations, who had this to say about Trenin:

Physical player with great
playmaking ability. Crashes the net for rebounds and loose pucks. Quick
release that he could use more often. Very good in his own zone either at
supporting teammates when he plays center or by covering the defenseman and the
shooting lanes when he’s playing winger. Great vision & creativity with the
puck but he needs to improve skating more to truly dominate. Had great
playoff. Top 9 potential with some Top 6 playmaking potential if
he improves skating. I like him in the 2nd round anywhere from 40 to
60.

Veeti Vainio D (CSS EU 25, Pronman Honorable Mention)

There are very few comparables for Veeti Vainio, as it’s pretty unusual to find defensemen who have scored at a point-a-game rate and are also 6’2 in European junior. He’s a fairly off radar name, and I have to wonder if he’d be ranked higher had he decided to play a year in the CHL like Andersson and Jakub Zboril.

With a 3rd or 4th round selection, this is a guy I would target, but given how impressive his PCS%’s were I thought I should reach out to a professional: Marco Bombino, Future Consideration’s Finish correspondent. Here is what Marco had to say:

Vainio is an excellent skater with great poise, vision and solid shot selection. However, his physical game and defensive zone coverage were really concerning for me. He must get stronger and show more determination when he’s without the puck. The lack of effort was not good to see from a high-end talent like him. For me, he’s a mid-round selection in the draft. There’s some really good offensive potential, but other parts of his game need to improve. I think playing at the second highest level (Mestis) would be best for his development. I don’t see him playing full time in Liiga yet, but I do believe he will play some games, especially when Blues will also compete in the Champions Hockey League.

Clearly, Vainio has a fair amount of development to do defensively, but given his age, size and offensive prowess, this could be a high potential mid-round bet.

Dmytro Timashov LW (CSS NA 92, Pronman 66)

Timashov is a guy who’s been a question for me all year long, as he’s been relatively off radar in the rankings, despite leading the QMJHL in rookie scoring. The Ukrainian winger is small in stature at 5’9, but at 190 lbs he’s got a thicker build than one may expect.

I reached out to Guillaume Gervaise to get his thoughts on Timashov as well:

Dynamic offensive smallish forward. Prone to make turn overs at times when he tries to do too much but he does more good than bad. Not afraid of traffic. High end vision & playmaking, can make plays at top speed. He can stickhandle his way through tight spaces. He’d be a Top 30 guy if 6-foot-0 tall. Top 6 potential in the pro. I have him in 2nd round in the 40-45th spot range.

Thomas Schemitsch (CSS NA 91, Pronman 100)

At 6’3, 200 lbs, Schemitsch already has the frame you’d look for in an NHL defender, but it was his offensive game that made the biggest strides this year, where he was in the top 5 in 17 year-old defensemen goal scoring and top 10 in 17 year old defensemen points according to CHLStats.com on an Owen Sound team that was middle of the pack in terms of offensive production. According to Corey Pronman, he was impressive in playing in all situations, with good upside as a two-way defensemen.

Kay Schweri (Unranked)

Schweri, like Timashov and Trenin, was among the top 5 in QMJHL rookie scoring this year, but is completely off the list for most draft boards. To get a sense as to why this player, who scores to well in PCS%, wasn’t getting the love from scouts, I reached out to Jerome Berube, the head Quebec scount for hockeyprospect.com. Berube noted that while Schweri was a fantastic playmaker, he tends to play too much of a perimeter game, and suffered from inconsistency during the season. During the World Juniors, he was outshone by fellow prospects Timo Meier and Denis Malgin on the Swiss team, which is partially why Berube expects he’ll slide to 6th or 7th round, if he gets selected at all.

Like any draft pick, especially players available in the later rounds, Schweri is clearly not without his flaws, and obviously has a lot to work on. However, given his advanced playmaking and offensive game, Schweri could prove to be an excellent, high reward gamble with a late round pick.

Rebuilding on the Fly – Part 5 – Later Round Draft Targets

Round 2 Round Targets (Consensus Ranked 41-60)

Third Round Targets and Beyond

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