Mailbag Part 2: Nils Hoglander, Wingers, and the Best Case Scenario For J.T. Miller

I would say so, yes. He’s played a higher level of men’s hockey in Sweden than Dahlen ever did, and looked pretty good doing it. Both players had a lot of offensive upside at the time they were drafted, but Hoglander is more well-rounded and has a higher ceiling and more room to grow than Dahlen had.

I always like Dahlen as the return in the Alex Burrows trade, but was never particularly that high on him as a prospect, if that makes sense. There were some red flags in his final year in the Allsvenskan that suggested he might not translate his offense to the next level that just don’t exist for Hoglander. He’s a few years away and may never fully realize his offensive potential, but the fact that he played the entire season in the SHL is a great sign for his development as a player.

According to CapFriendly, the Canucks do not meet the requirements to sign any offer sheet in the $4,227,438-$8,454,871 range.

Yes, once Podkolzin’s contract expires in 2 years, he’ll sign an ELC. I’ll give credit to Jim Benning on this one. His job was on the line and he picked a player he knew wouldn’t be able to help until after he may be gone. I have a lot of respect for that.

Centres play the more difficult position. They have more defensive responsibility and the greatest amount of ice to cover from the offensive zone to the defensive zone. There are also just far less centres than there are wingers, and most centres can transition to other forward positions, while wingers don’t have that versatility. Faceoffs aren’t nearly as important as they’re made out to be, but they add another layer to the value of a centre as opposed to that of a winger.

I don’t have any data to back this up, but based on anecdotal evidence it seems as though it’s far easier to ask an elite centre to carry average wingers than vice-versa simply because of how much a centre is asked to do and how much space they have to cover. There certainly are elite wingers who can remain effective even when playing with centres that don’t match their skill level, but they’re exceedingly rare.

As far as the Matthews vs. Marner discussion goes, I think it’s much closer than many make it out to be. Marner had one excellent season playing with John Tavares where he racked up a ton of assists. Matthews hasn’t quite reached the heights Marner did this season yet, but he’s scored more goals in less games and was only .005 off Marner’s points-per-game total this season. I think when you consider the fact that he also plays the premium position it’s entirely fair to say that Marner’s contract should not exceed the value of Matthews’.

I think that’s a facile comparison, to be honest. All it takes is a quicl glance at a HockeyDB page to see that some of these players are better than others. For starters, Miller can play the middle, which means he already brings more value than arguably all of the other players on this list. Secondly, it’s not entirely fair to say these players have had similar production over the course of their careers. Tanner Pearson and Sven Baertschi’s career highs in points have been 44 and 35, respectively; while Miller and Nyquist’s are 58 and 60, respectively. Nyquist in particular I think has a higher offensive ceiling than the other players, and Miller has proven to be a lot more durable over his career than Sven Baertschi has. I understand your point, because I don’t think these are smart or efficient players to invest in, but they are upgrades over what they currently have.

I’ll believe it when I see it. Every year the NHL sets out to call more penalties, only for the refs to put away their whistles in the playoffs; and every year the fans scream about it, prompting the cycle to continue. The NHL is still transitioning to a faster, more skilled game; but it’s going to be a slow roll. I think eventually something has to give with the officiating in the playoffs, but I don’t see any significant changes coming any time soon.

For most scouts, director of Amateur scouting is basically the pinnacle unless there’s a desire to transition to another area of Hockey Operations. Brackett has done a good job in Vancouver by most accounts and he’s well-respected throughout the league, so if he wants to eventually take on a GM or AGM role somewhere I certainly wouldn’t rule it out. There were some rumours about Edmonton being interested but I’m not sure if they had legs.

I don’t think Podkolzin would have been available to them at 14. I also don’t think the Tampa Bay Lightning would have settled for less once they knew they could get a first-rounder. The only way I could see them getting out of that situation would have been to get in on Patrick Marleau and possibly get Toronto’s first back in that deal.

I have to admit I was absolutely shocked the Canucks didn’t draft a single defenseman when that is easily the weakest position in their prospect pool. It’s pretty baffling. I like a lot of the players they took so I haven’t been very vocal about it but it doesn’t make a lot of sense on paper.

I’m very excited to see what Hoglander can do in the SHL after another summer of training. He’s probably got the best chance to surprise people next year of any player in the Canucks’ prospect pool.

All of these contracts are arguably worse than Eriksson’s. If they legitimately cannot move him for anything other than an even worse contract, just let him sit in the press box.

He’s probably going to sign Tyler Myers.

You might be saying to yourself, “that’s not going to fix anything!”

You would be correct. But neither did acquiring Luca Sbisa, Adam Clendening, Matt Bartkowski, Andrey Pedan, Philip Larsen, Michael Del Zotto, or Erik Gudbranson. You might say that a pattern is beginning to emerge.

The best case scenario is the Canucks squeak into the playoffs in one of the next two years, and JT Miller continues to be a solid 45-50 point per year player until the end of his deal. That would mean the deal is effectively a mid-to-late first, a 3rd, an AHL goaltender for what will probably be a very good middle-six player (and maybe occasionally a first-line winger). That’s a fine trade for any contending team to make. An overpayment, but still fine. The problem is the Canucks are not a contending team and there’s a decent chance they won’t even make the playoffs in the next two years. That’s when the deal could get ugly.

But I wouldn’t worry too much about it.