Dead Man Coaching

It’s surely only a matter of time.

Sure, the Canucks have managed to string a couple of wins together, but for the fervent miltitude of Canucks fans who seem content only in complaining, Alain Vigneault has got to go. For this angry mob of judge, jury and would-be executioners, Alain Vigneault is the one thing holding this team back from competing for the Cup. I guess I forgot that he played the right side on defense. The fact he hasn’t inserted himself in the line-up is just another example of his poor personnel decisions, to go with his poor record on strategic innovation and a poor in-game tactics.

For these heinous crimes against humanity inanity, he sits on death row, waiting for the inevitable day of reckoning. It doesn’t help that any time the chants to #fireAV start up, Vigneault can be heard muttering, "Let them eat throat lozenges."

So while Vigneault may have won himself a short reprieve, you can be sure that a full pardon from the Governor won’t be coming any time soon. If you have no idea what I’m talking about, just picture Tony Gallagher with an eye patch.

A couple of days ago, CanucksArmy’s own prison warden, Thomas Drance tried to lay out a rational, logical analysis of the pros and cons of Alain Vigneault’s time with the Canucks. I’m not sure that did much to sway the angry mob calling for Vigneault’s head on a platter. In many respects, this situation is not all that different from the one Bruce Boudreau found himself in while coaching Washington the last couple of years.

It’s a rather simple formula: high expectations plus chronic under-performance equals Capital punishment:

As usual it is the innocent (fans) that suffer the most.

The fans in Vancouver, however, are not quite so innocent. For many of them, grass is always greener on the other side. And in this case, it’s not just the grass, but it’s the Green Mile that they want to see Vigneault walk. Personally, I’m more concerned with the Magnificent Mile because this year, it leads to the Cup again:

By the way, if you haven’t heard, the Blackhawks single-handedly saved hockey:

 

But seriously, does anybody actually still buy Sports Illustrated for the written content? Apparently the answer is "no":

Lets get back to the issue at hand: Alain Vigneault’s job security.

You’ll find lots of Canucks’ fans pointing out statistical anomalies like almost half of Stanley Cup winning coaches have been with their teams for two years or less, and that no coach with more than four years tenure has ever won the Cup. What they won’t mention, or probably don’t even realize, is that there have been many more team-years coached by coaches in their 2-3 years than team-years coached by coaches with longer tenures. So it’s not really an anomaly after all. I haven’t done the math, but I’d be willing to bet that the percentages probably correlate pretty well.

A couple of years ago, Puck Daddy took a look at coaching tenures in the NHL and concluded that five years was the mark of longevity. So, since so few coaches make it past five years, it stands to reason that it is way less likely for a coach with a long tenure to win the Cup. Right?

Interestingly enough, according to this chart from The Economist, it turns out that popes have a similar threshold in longevity:

 

That, however, is where the similarity ends. While most NHL coaches’ days are numbered from the start, the only thing numbered about popes, is their names: 

So all that said, when Vigneault finally gets called to the GMs office for a conversation, at least he knows he can have another chance with a different team. When the Pope gets the call from his GM, it’s usually a lot more serious.