Canucks Army Monday Mailbag: November 7th

It has been 18 days since the Canucks last victory and things are looking bleak. The Canucks have no top pairing on defence, and their emotional leader, Jannik Hansen (seriously), is the latest Canuck to hit the IR.

On the bright side, I’m back on twitter! And today I’m answering questions as a guest host of the Monday Mailbag. Nice!

Let’s get into it.

Probably because you don’t know me well enough to know any better.

Unfortunately I haven’t started scraping data for the 2016-17 season yet. I hadn’t planned on doing so until the prospects had gotten at least 20-25 games under their belts – you know, sample size and all that. Once that happens (probably some time in early December), I’ll put together a post (or a series of posts) detailing how each Canucks prospect is doing according to that metric.

Whether or not they protect Hansen is still up for debate. They’ll be protecting seven forwards, and once you get passed the obvious (Sedins, Sutter, Eriksson, Horvat, Baertschi), Hansen finds himself in a battle with Anton Rodin, Emerson Etem, and Brendan Gaunce. After pre-season, I had assumed that Rodin would be the obvious pick, as I thought he looked like one of the best forwards during exhibition play.

But it’s 12 games in and Rodin is nowhere close to game ready. I’d still guess that he comes back, looks great and gets protected, but if this setback turns into another and another, I could see them protecting Jannik Hansen.

However, if the Canucks do know that they aren’t going to protect Hansen, then yes, I’d absolutely be asking around to see what you could get for him. Depending on how long he plays with the twins, he could inflate his value enough to be worth a decent draft pick or a B prospect – that said, this management has had all sorts of difficulties getting value in return for assets.

Alternatively, if Rodin is protected, you could make the argument that Hansen being available serves as protection against losing a younger player like Brendan Gaunce. The expansion draft works in mysterious ways, and assets can function in more ways than it appears on the surface.

I’d love to see Ferraro in an AGM role personally, and I think he’d be more comfortable with that. I do believe he’s said on record before that if a team, including the Canucks, were to call with a job offer, he’d certainly be listening.

Selfishly, I’d be a little bummed if we didn’t have the benefit of hearing his hockey takes five days a week on the radio, but I can’t imagine any way that he doesn’t help this organization. He’s a remarkably perceptive and knowledgeable guy, and he wouldn’t be afraid to anyone – no matter how high up the totem pole they are – when they’re doing something stupid. The Canucks could probably use that.

First off, the analytics are showing us that our sample size is way too small, and so what we’ll be looking at is descriptive and not necessarily predictive. With that said, here’s some statsy stuff.

Nikita Tryamkin has looked pretty darn good for a guy that was apparently incapable of playing hockey at the start of the season. His possession numbers are just below 50 percent. In both games, he’s been an exaggerated version of his team in general in that respect, with a Corsi-for percentage of 60 against Ottawa (4.1 rel-CF%) and 38.5 against Toronto (-9.2 rel-CF%). He’s even in terms of on-ice shots on net, and is minus-3 in on-ice scoring chances.

His PDO is dead on 100, as even though Miller’s even strength save percentage took a hit on Saturday, the Canucks’ shooting percentage was high enough with Tryamkin on the ice to even it out. His expected-Goals percentage of 39.4 suggests that he should but getting scored on more often than he’s on for goals.

While analytics have made plenty of strides in the past half-decade, there are still no websites tracking pokechecks per 60, so I can’t say exactly how frequently Tryamkin is using that ridiculous reach of his to poke pucks off sticks, but I’m betting it’s elite.

Yes. Although not quite yet.

While the perception is that the Canucks continuously bumble simple decisions, I believe that they’ve handled Subban properly so far. It’s not that I don’t believe that his offensive game (which is beautifully developed) will transfer to the NHL – it’s that I don’t think the average Canucks fan quite realizes the extent to which his defensive game needs improvement.

When Subban is in the offensive zone, he is a wizard, and the Canucks absolutely need that. When he’s got space, he can carry the puck through all three zones with speed and make long precise passes.

When he is pressured in his own zone, all bets are off.

The go-to response from people is: Well, have you seen P.K. in his own zone? Yes, yes I have, but this is well beyond that. Subban serves up pizzas in his own end at a rate that would make even Luca Sbisa jealous, and until that gets cleared up (as much as it can be), I think it’s best that he sticks to facing AHL competition and away from a fanbase that is known for shredding defencemen for turnovers.

All that being said, he’s a 21-year old kid and he’s averaging more than a point per game in the AHL as a defenceman – that’s pretty spectacular. I’d be patient with the guy and let him sort through his defensive issues, he’s still got time on his side.

Yes, it’s too early to label him a steal, and at 64th, I’m not even sure about “really good” yet. But it certainly looks more than reasonable at this point.

It’s early in the NCAA season and we don’t know if Lockwood is going to be able to sustain the point per game pace that he’s on now, but he has shown attributes beyond just putting the puck in the net that bode well for his future. With two of his five goals coming short handed, he’s shown that he doesn’t need much time to be dangerous. He’s fast, he’s got a good shot, and he’s a lot more physical than you’d expect for his size. At this time, I’m happy with picking him at 64.

It’s harder to tell with Lockwood, because I’ve seen less of him, but I think that Gaudette can sustain his pace for a couple of reasons: first, he’s basically carrying on from where he left off last season, when he scored 25 points in his final 23 games; second, he’s not riding a high shooting percentage – he is in fact second in the NCAA in shots (50) and shots per game (5.56), which bodes very well for his production in the future.

I think that both Lockwood and Gaudette are looking at bottom six roles in the NHL, at wing and centre respectively. It’s been said before that Lockwood’s game is reminiscent of Jannik Hansen, and I’d agree with that. He’s got serious wheels and that honey badger work ethic. I’d even say he’s a bit more physical than Hansen and looks to have better finishing ability. The road to the NHL is long though, and Lockwood is going to have to keep working at it – that’s what players like he and Hansen have to do to move ahead, as they aren’t getting by on skill alone. How hard he works will determine how far he goes.

Gaudette is an all situations player right now in college, and it’s hard to project where he’ll be once he hits pro hockey. He loves to carry the puck right now and will take every chance he gets to run through the neutral zone through opposing players – sometimes it works and sometimes it doesn’t but it’s only going to get harder as he advances leagues. He’s likely to play more of a defensive role as a professional, and while he’s already a diligent back checker, he’ll have to make some adjustments in some areas of his game. In he succeeds in making the NHL, he may be that responsible third or fourth line centre who very occasionally dazzles with an end to end rush – a little throwback to his college days.

Yes. It baffles me that the NHL is so slow on this, when former players are literally dying due to issues that can be linked to head trauma. It seems like it should be such a simple concept, but they seem more concerned about preserving the tradition of the game than the safety of their players.

It doesn’t surprise me that Kadri was able to get away with the hit he laid on Daniel Sedin’s head, and not just because Daniel plays for Vancouver, and not just because the DOPS is notoriously unpredictable in their rulings. Evidently, blind side hits are totally fair game, so long as the head isn’t the main point of contact (which is was in the Sedin case, so I mean.. come on).

Even aside from direct hits to the head, I don’t know how they can support the idea of hitting players that have no idea what’s coming and no way to prepare or defend themselves.

The fact that a member of the DOPS comes out and says publicly that there’s nothing wrong with this could lead to players feeling less of a need to hold up when preparing to deliver a hit to an unsuspecting victim – and that could certainly lead to more head injuries in the future.

Any blood will be on the NHL’s hands, and I personally hope the lawsuits dig deep into their pockets.

The Canucks don’t have the roster flexibility to call up players on a whim, so they’d need to rely on injuries to make that happen (which isn’t really positive thinking).

I really don’t think that any of the current coaching staff or management are the types of people to make call ups for this reason alone, but Pedan and LaBate have another thing going for them: they’re right near the top of the list anyways. Assuming Stecher is already in the NHL, Pedan has to be the next defenceman in line for a call up. As for LaBate, I think it’s pretty likely that he would have been called up rather than Mike Zalewski a couple of weekends ago if it weren’t for that suspension.

Pedan and LaBate sure know how to chuck ’em, but I don’t know if their presence is entirely necessary. Despite the questionable hits from Nazem Kadri and Morgan Rielly, Matt Martin is probably public enemy number one, and both Derek Dorsett and Erik Gudbranson are eager to deal with him. The Canucks still have Nikita Tryamkin as a threatening presence as well.

Without a doubt. Willie’s a bit of a pacifist for the most part, but Babcock is a bit of a rapscallion. If Babcock starts his goons, I’m sure Willie counters and all hell breaks loose off the faceoff. Willie will be leaning over the boards screaming at Babcock so hard his mustache will be spinning in circles. After a heated first period, Willie charges down the hallways of Rogers Arena, no doubt with the intention to GET HIM.

This is all assuming he hasn’t been fired by then of course.