Canucks Army Monday Mailbag: June 19th

Don’t get me wrong — I really like Jonathan Marchessault’s game. The Canucks really missed the boat letting him pass while they signed players like Borna Rendulic, Jack Skille, Michael Chaput, etc. to painfully similar contracts. And I think we’re at a point where that ship has sailed.

I have a hard time believing that the Florida Panthers want to part with Marchessault, so much as they want to leave their defence corps intact. If they keep him beyond the Expansion Draft (not terribly likely), I’m sure they’ll be all too happy to have him next season. If the Vegas Golden Knights get Marchessault, I’m sure they’ll keep him around. If not, the price for a player that productive on so cheap a contract as Marchessault’s would come at an exorbitant cost — he should, anyways.

Marchessault isn’t too old to help the Canucks by the time they’re competitive again; I just fear the cost of futures to make a deal of this ilk happen won’t merit the return they get on Marchessault when they’re at that point in their arch.

I can’t see Vegas having any interest in either given the bounty of top four defencemen available to them for free through the Expansion Draft. They’ll probably have one of the better defence groups in the league already. They don’t need to add through trades, etc.

I don’t mean to be rude, but I don’t think you’ve even set the framework for this kind of trade. The Montreal Canadiens just dealt Nathan Beaulieu to the Buffalo Sabres for a third round pick, and at best, I have to imagine they view Ben Hutton as a slightly lesser version of Beaulieu. Canadiens general manager Marc Bergevin is fascinating, insofar as he can make the best and worst trades just days apart. This is a stretch even for Bergevin on his worst days, though.

My interpretation of game theory and how I might use a practical hockey related scenario to explain it is this:

Imagine a team on the draft floor. They know way ahead of time that Jamie Benn is going to be one of the best players in his draft class; they also understand he’s going to fall to somewhere in the fifth-round. The goal, then, isn’t to take Benn with a top ten pick. What you want to do in this scenario is use the latest pick possible to secure Benn. It’s not about getting the best player; it’s about getting as many of the best players possible.

You should learn how to MUFB.

Everyone I’d consider a hockey insider has said it’s all but official. That was before the Detroit Red Wings made the whackiest move of the day and exposed Petr Mrazek. I still think Marc-Andre Fleury is going to finish the Expansion Draft as a Golden Knight; I’m just less certain he stays there for long.

At this rate, I’m going to set the over/under on first round picks the Golden Knights acquire by the draft at four. They need to hit the cap floor, and there are many, many terrible contracts out there.

The Golden Knights have to select one player from each of the league’s other 30 teams, and a team can only field a roster of 23 players. That math doesn’t add up. They’re going to have to make some deals after the draft. I can see them stockpiling four starting calibre goaltenders and turning that market on its head.

The hockey men are back, and like any decent hockey man, they value third pair defencemen like Alex Petrovic ahead of bona fide top six wingers like Reilly Smith and Marchessault. It makes total sense. Stop staring at a spreadsheet, nerd.

I think there’s more of a market for Erik Gudbranson than there is for Brandon Sutter. In fact, I’d be willing to be the Canucks could secure a package close to what they gave up for Gudbranson initially if they went in that direction. As for Sutter, that’s going to be a tough sell — even to the hockey men of the league.

The biggest single mistake? That has to be protecting Jimmy Howard (who I think fairly high of) at the expense of Mrazek. That’s just such a bizarre move.

The Canucks not exposing Sutter is a close second.

Is this a thing? What’s the apology for? The Canucks are free points for the other 30 teams of the league. Their fans should be thanking you, not demanding an apology.

I highly doubt Nikita Tryamkin has significant trade value. It’s nothing worth dealing him for I’d imagine. I wouldn’t rule out the possibility of Tryamkin coming back to the Canucks, though. It was more about the North American adjustment than playing for the Canucks when it comes to reasons why he left the team. At least, that’s my understanding of the situation.

The Washington Capitals.

Best case scenario? Let me throw out some random, bordering on useless best case scenario comparisons. These are more about style than talent.

I’m not a huge fan of Jake Bean’s game. He’s certainly not someone I’d identify as a priority trade target for the Canucks. I can’t imagine the Hurricanes have much of an appetite for dealing Bean, either. And if they do, Jake Virtanen isn’t even a worthy starting point.

Yes.

I don’t think the Golden Knights will claim Luca Sbisa. There are far too many defencemen who are legitimately good to justify taking on Sbisa. Some of them are cheaper, even. Whether Sbisa is with the Canucks or not, I like Olli Juolevi’s chances of making the team next year. He’s already better than Sbisa.

I keep going back to the fact that Detroit’s exposing Mrazek. Just can’t make sense of it for the life of me.

I can’t see that as a possibility, no.