Canucks Army Midterm Prospect Rankings: 14th – 10th

Here at Canucks Army, we have an unhealthy obsession with hockey prospects, both undrafted and those already in the system. Never in the seven year history of this website has that obsession been more important than it is now, as the Canucks are entrenched in a rebuild, and prospects are their only hope for the future.

As was the case with our Preseason Prospect Rankings, this set was created by consensus from nearly a dozen Canucks Army writers and contributors. The parameters are simple: the qualify for the rankings, the prospect must be eligible for the Calder Memorial Trophy (aka, must be a rookie) next season. That means that Jake Virtanen, Jared McCann, and Ben Hutton are out. They are no longer considered prospects by this measure, as they have graduated to full time NHLers.

Rather than publishing individual articles for each prospect like we did in the summer (and will do again for the next preseason rankings), these are split into sections, like last year’s midterm rankings. It’s time to dive into the second group, the 10th to 14th best prospects in the Canucks system.

The Canucks signed Ashton Sautner out of junior last season, where he was finishing up a year as an overager. Sautner was often overlooked as a member of the Edmonton Oil Kings, which typically had a very strong blueline during his tenure there. At the time, Canucks Army alumnus Rhys Jessop called the signing an “intriguing gamble“, also noting that his style of play may lead to counting stats that undersell his value, in the vein of a Chris Tanev.

Sautner’s season in Utica has gone well. His 10 points (four goals, six assists) in 38 games don’t exactly jump off the page, but they aren’t bad numbers for an AHL rookie, and nien of them have come at even strength. Sautner has been a healthy scratch fairly frequently this season, between 10 and 15 times – nagging injuries muddy this total a little bit. Travis Green has a plethora of AHL defencemen to work with, and all of them besides Andrey Pedan, Taylor Fedun and Jordan Subban are rotated in and out of the lineup.

All the same, Sautner is still tracking towards becoming a depth NHL player. His above average size and the fact that he’s producing modestly for a 21-year old AHL rookie gives him a sturdy cohort of comparables, of which about 30 per cent eventually became regular NHLers. Sautner also received an NHL call up this season, though he never played a game. His ELC began ticking the years off this season, giving him two more years until he becomes an RFA. It will be interesting to see how far he has progressed at that point.

Dmitry Zhukenov was a hard prospect to rate at the time of his selection (fourth round, 114th overall), since the MHL (the Russian junior league) hasn’t historically turned out an impressive volume of prospects. It was notable at the time that his international numbers were considerably better, and it’s likely that his tournament play is what caught Benning’s eye.

Zhukenov was selected 10th overall in the 2015 CHL import draft by the Chicoutimi Sagueneens, where he just completed his first regular season, where he put up 57 points (15 goals, 42 assists) in 64 games. Those point totals are currently the highest of any prospect in the Canucks organization this season. That being said, the percentage of success of comparable players remains woefully in the single digits – this is a trait fairly common in the QMJHL, a league which has seen piles of high scoring forwards amount to absolutely nothing in the NHL.

If we step away from the quantitative analysis and look more at his style of play, Zhukenov’s future invokes a bit more optimism. The Canucks Russian scout, Sergei Chibisov described him as a hard working player that is first and foremost concerned with taking care of his own end. However, that doesn’t preclude him from haven’t some offensive upside, and he’s already demonstrated some proficiency in the art of dangling. Roll those attributes together with the fact that he’s Russian and you can’t help but think of Pavel Datsyuk, a player who might represent Zhukenov’s absolute best case scenario upside.

Zhukenov will turn 19 later this month, meaning the Canucks have plenty of time to figure out what they have in him. It also means that he’ll return to junior next season, and he’ll have a shot to make the Russian U20 WJC team, after being left out of consideration for this past tournament.

Guillaume Brisebois is always going to be an intriguing and closely followed prospect, not only for where he was taken (third round, 66th overall), but also because he was drafted with the pick that the Canucks received in the Eddie Lack trade (along with a 2016 seventh round pick). Given the increased scrutiny that the trade creates, it would help his cause if he piled up some more points. However, that’s not really Brisebois’ game.

Brisebois had a couple of injuries in the 2015-16 campaign that limited him to just 52 games. As such, he failed to improve upon the 28 points he scored in his draft year, though he did improve his production in terms of points per game. He finished the QMJHL regular season with 26 points, with the most impressive improvement being that he scored 10 goals, more than doubling his career high in less games. Brisebois has demonstrated from time to time that he has some solid offensive capabilities, including a hard point shot and the ability to carry the puck through a series of defenders.

Back before Hockey Streams went dark (RIP), I hand tracked a few of Brisebois’ games with Acadie-Bathurst. The results that I got in an admittedly tiny sample indicate that Brisebois is a strong possession player on a terrible possession teams. In each of the games that I tracked, he came out positively in terms of shot attempt differential, while the rest of his team was buried, given him a relative Corsi in the double digits. Moreover, nearly every time the puck was on his stick in the defensive end, the zone was cleared without the opponent regaining possession. These observations point to Brisebois’ boxcars seriously underselling his value. I would hazard a guess that his numbers would increase considerably on a better team with forwards that could make good on his high volume of defensive zone clears and offensive zone entries.

Brisebois will return to the QMJHL next season before turning pro in 2017-18. Before that though, his junior team, poor as they are, in still in the QMJHL playoffs. On top of that, he’s probably got as good a shot as any to join the Comets for an AHL stint once his team is inevitably knocked out.

Lukas Jasek has been an incredibly difficult prospect to keep track of. This is the result of following a player in the Czech hockey system – the highest tier, Extraliga, is simple enough, but the lower leagues make things very difficult.

Here’s what we know about Jasek’s 2015-16 campaign: he played 25 games in Extraliga, scoring a goal and adding two assists; he played 14 games in the Czech U20 league, where he scored 15 goals and added 13 assists for an even 2.0 point per game; he was loaned to a team in the Tier 2 league for two games, going pointless, as well as the Tier 3 league for one game, scoring one goal; he played seven games for the Czech U20 international team, scoring a single goal – his lack of production here is likely a large factor in why he was cut from the Czech World Junior team.

The fact that Jasek suited up for five different teams in five different leagues over the course of a single season makes said season incredibly difficult to judge. What we do know is that an improvement of a single point in roughly the same amount of games in the Extraliga from one season to another is a bit of a disappointment. Following the draft, CA alumnus Money Puck stated that Jasek could potentially be one of the biggest late round steals of 2015, given that he was picked up in the sixth round, 174th overall, while having a PCS score of 31 per cent. An extra year within much improvement hasn’t done him any favours, and by my calculations his likelihood of NHL success based on his Extraliga numbers are now in the single digits.

Going forward, the hope is that Jasek heads to North America in the fall and plays his draft+2 season in the CHL. This would make him both easier to keep an eye for fans as well as Canucks management, as well as giving them a little bit more influence in stabilizing his development – playing for five teams in one year is not ideal. Furthermore, Jasek will have another shot at making the Czech U20 World Junior team next time around.

Carl Neill’s selection at the 2015 Entry Draft (fifth round, 144th overall) didn’t blow anyone away (though his PCS score was roughly double what would be expected at that position). However, he’s gained a bit of a cult following since then, probably due to the fact that his junior team is named after him.

He also led all Canucks prospects in points for a good chunk of the season, before cooling down considerably in the new year. With the QMJHL regular season at an end, Neill has amassed 50 points (eight goals, 42 assists) in 64 games, which nets him new career highs in both assists and points – though his goal totals took a plunge from (down from 14 last year). He was also fifth in the QMJHL in points among defencemen. A look into comparables projects than about 13 per cent of similar players became successful NHLers, which is a bit of a dip from last year, suggesting that his progression is a bit behind where we’d like it to be.

That being said, Neill is still an intriguing prospect and given that he’s finishing his draft+2 season (he was drafted following his second season of draft eligibility), Neill will head to Utica next season and start the clock on the Entry Level Deal that he will likely sign in the coming months.

That’s it for this group. Tomorrow we’ll look at the Canucks prospects rated ninth through sixth.