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The best and worst case scenarios for Tyler Motte’s 2021 season with the Vancouver Canucks

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Photo credit:© Perry Nelson-USA TODAY Sports
Josh Elliott-Wolfe
3 years ago
Remember when some people were upset that the Vancouver Canucks acquired Tyler Motte from the Columbus Blue Jackets instead of getting a draft pick in exchange for Thomas Vanek? Admittedly, I was part of that group. It was a fair criticism at the time as the Canucks were in the midst of a rebuild and should’ve been doing anything they could to accumulate draft picks, but since then, Tyler Motte has emerged as a key piece of the Canucks’ bottom 6 moving forward and has become somewhat of a fan favourite.
Motte really found his way into the heart of Canucks fans throughout the 2020 Stanley Cup Playoffs though, as he was a fixture on the penalty kill and an example of the old cliche of “giving 100 percent on every shift”. He even made waves around the NHL when he made a stickless Alex Pietrangelo look like a beer-leaguer:
While the Tyler Motte story is an uplifting one, there are areas of his on-ice game where he can improve and potentially cement himself as a key part of the team moving forward. Motte finished last season with 4 goals and 4 assists in 34 games as he battled injuries. Not eye-catching stats by any means, but that isn’t necessarily what the Canucks need from him. On top of that, he played the majority of his minutes with Jay Beagle, who — believe it or not — is not that great of a playmaker. Motte will need to continue to take strides defensively as well, as that’s where most of his value lies.

The Best of 2021 Motte

Games: 56, Goals: 7, Assists: 9, Points: 16, .29 PPG

Motte’s career-high for point totals was 16 in the 2018-19 season when he played 74 games. Motte would need an ideal situation to beat that total in a shortened season, but the reason I think he could reach that total is because there may be an opportunity to play alongside Bo Horvat. Now, I don’t think that would be ideal for the Canucks as they would probably prefer someone like Jake Virtanen or Nils Höglander in the top 6 (and eventually Vasili Podkolzin), but if there are injuries or struggles from players that are pencilled into the top 6, there could be an opportunity for Motte to be elevated to Horvat’s line. Again, if you’re a Canucks fan you probably don’t want to see Motte in the top 6, but if you’re Motte that may be a good opportunity to produce offensively.
Motte and Horvat spent just over 33 minutes of total ice-time playing together at even strength last season. Not a huge sample size at all, as Motte spent more time with Beagle, Brandon Sutter, and Tim Schaller (while he was still with the team). That being said, when looking at linemates that Motte spent over 30 minutes with last season, his time with Horvat provided the best Corsi for percentage at 47.95%. Motte would probably only see time with Horvat if that line was playing more of a matchup role — a spot Horvat has found himself in throughout the past couple of seasons.
Motte’s value does mostly lie in his defensive play and role on the penalty kill. Despite his reputation, Motte didn’t have the greatest advanced metrics defensively at even strength as he was heavily out-chanced.
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Some of that can be credited to playing the majority of his minutes in a matchup role with Beagle, and because of that Motte was also second on the team for percentage of shifts starting outside of the offensive zone. If that percentage can even out a little bit that would probably bump up Motte’s defensive numbers.

The Worst of 2021 Motte

Games: 25, Goals: 3, Assists: 2, Points: 5, . 2 PPG

This scenario would see Motte battle through injuries once again, which is something he’s struggled with throughout his career. Motte’s style of play doesn’t necessarily lend itself well to sustained health though, as he is very willing to put his body on the line to make a play. Combine that with the amount of time he spends in the defensive zone and you can make the case that Motte will likely at least miss a few games to recover throughout a shortened season.
Motte may once again be spending quite a bit of time playing with Beagle, which is a pairing Canucks’ Head Coach Travis Green seemed to like last season and throughout the playoffs. That would not only mean that Motte is probably spending most of his time in the defensive zone, but limits how effective Motte could be offensively with how many plays tend to die on Beagle’s stick.

What else does a successful 2021 season look like?

A limited top 6 role: I don’t want to advocate for Motte to be a staple in the Canucks’ top 6 forward group, but I do think there is room for him to spend a bit of time there if the Canucks want to play Horvat in a matchup role at certain points throughout the season. Motte already plays a lot of key defensive minutes, so spending that time with Horvat instead of Beagle would just give Motte the opportunity to show a bit more of his offensive upside.
Taking strides defensively at even strength:  As I outlined earlier, Motte gets stuck with a lot of hard minutes. Because of that, his defensive numbers aren’t the best. Motte’s energy makes it look like he is contributing a lot in his own end, but the results haven’t been there just yet.
Doing the “little things”: This is a little more arbitrary, but a lot of what Motte does well is related to how relentless he is. He forechecks hard, skates hard, and gives it his all on every shift. This kind of play is what endears him to fans, teammates, and more importantly coach Green. Motte is usually at his best when he’s doing all the things that would go unnoticed.
Continue to be a key piece of the PK: Motte’s individual impact on the penalty kill has been great for the Canucks. According to hockeyviz.com, the Canucks expected goals against with Motte on the ice during the PK drops almost two full points.
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Motte will undoubtedly be a staple on the Canucks’ PK when in the lineup, which is why it will be so important for him to stay healthy. When Motte is out of the lineup it forces players like Horvat to take on more penalty killing minutes, taking away from his contributions at even strength.
Staying healthy:  This is probably a good plan for any NHL player, but it would be great for Motte if he can get through a full season without spending time injured. He has yet to get through a full season without missing time, and that may be even more of a challenge with what will probably be a compact 2021 NHL season.

What does an unsuccessful 2021 season look like?

Extended time playing with Jay Beagle: I do think Beagle has some sort of value to a team, I just don’t think it’s on the ice. By extension, playing with Beagle can hurt a player’s value. Ideally, Motte would spend more time with Sutter as a linemate if the choice was between Beagle or Sutter on the fourth line.
Injury troubles: As I’ve said, Motte does play a bit of a high-energy game, which is great, but generally tough to sustain through a full season. Combine that with the compact season and minor injuries may evolve quicker than they would in a full 82-game season.
Time in the press box: I don’t think it’s very likely, but there is the possibility of a slow start from Motte, which may mean he ends up scratched for a game or two. Motte hasn’t reached a point in his career where he is exempt from being scratched, but odds are he will usually be the better choice over the likes of Eriksson and others that may end up out of the lineup more frequently.
A drop off on the PK: Generally if someone is good on the penalty kill they will sustain that year after year, especially when it’s an integral part of their game. So, once again I don’t think it’s very likely, but any regression on the PK would make things pretty tough for the Canucks.
What sort of season are you expecting from Tyler Motte? Sound off in the comments below, and stay tuned for the rest of our player preview series.

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