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2018 NHL Draft: Winter Rankings

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Photo credit:Miranda Zilkowsky Photography
Jeremy Davis
6 years ago
As mentioned last week, I’ve been working to get some 2018 NHL Draft content together as we head toward the World Juniors that kick off officially in just under a week. I started with a consolidated list of some major industry rankings, before digging into some potentially overrated and underrated players.
Today I’m unveiling my own list of 75 draft eligible prospects, complete with a variety of biographical and statistical data. Before we get to that, I’ve compiled some notes on trends and some notable prospects.
This appears to be the year of the offensive defenceman. It’s been since 2014 since a defenceman was taken first overall, and Aaron Ekblad was hardly a guarantee to go at no. 1. Rasmus Dahlin seems unshakable from his perch for the time being, and there are a plethora of offensively gifted defencemen following behind him. I’ve got five defencemen in my top ten, which is just one more than the consolidated rankings did. The question is, is that wise? History hasn’t been kind to draft with top ten’s that are heavy on blueliners. It’ll be something to keep an eye on next June, as teams are well aware of these trends and offensive defencemen are among the most likely types of players to fall on draft day.
On to the players themselves. No hot takes at first overall for me: like every major industry ranking around, I have Swedish defensive phenom Rasmus Dahlin at the top of my list. It wasn’t a difficult decision – Dahlin is a truly incredible player to watch. How often do you highlights of non-NHL players showing up on twitter that aren’t even goals? Dahlin’s dangles, whether they results in goals or not, show up on social media on a weekly basis; that’s just the kind of foothold this kid already has in the hockey world.
Statistically speaking, everything is going about as well as you’d expect from a future first overall pick. Dahlin leads all draft eligible defencemen in SEAL adjusted scoring (and sits 5th among all skaters), he’s averaging 2.0 shots on net per game, has a positive goal differential and even strength, and is simply too damn good for our pGPS cohort model: Dahlin has zero matches, largely due to the fact that he has a hire adjusted point rate than any other SHL defenceman in his age and stature range in the pGPS database.
Not to be deterred, Russian winger Andrei Svechnikov (2nd) is rediscovering his offensive prowess after missing significant time with an injury. Svechnikov has played just 16 games this season, making it difficult to get a read on some of the underlying trends. Last season, Svechnikov was utterly dominant in the USHL and had a tremendous effect on his Muskegan Lumberjacks teammates whenever he was on the ice (as detailed in the 1-5 section of my summer draft rankings). Early returns are showing similar patterns: he has a 70.6% goals-for percentage, and a +12.3 GF%rel.
I differ from many of the rankings at third overall, where I’ve got Filip Zadina. Like Nico Hischier last year, the Czech winger is tearing up the QMJHL in his rookie year after with the Halifax Mooseheads – he’s even close to matching Hischier’s points per game rate (1.44 to Hischier’s 1.51). Zadina leads all draft eligible players with at least 10 games played in SEAL adjusted scoring so far this season, and is putting more than four shots on net per game.
Another Swedish defenceman sits at no. 4: Adam Boqvist. Like all offensive d-men, especially Swedes, Boqvist has received plenty of comparisons to Erik Karlsson. Boqvist’s production in the Superelit Swedish junior league is on par with Karlsson’s, as his his one point in eight SHL games – Karlsson only had one point in seven SHL games in his draft season, which is part of why he managed to stay on the board until 15th overall in 2008. We wouldn’t expect Boqvist to put up massive numbers in the SHL at this point, but it would be nice if he could stick there. Just recently he was loaned to the Allsvenskan. If teams hope that he’ll have Karlsson-like production in the NHL, they’ll be looking for more in Sweden as the season goes on.
Brady Tkachuk (5th) and Quinn Hughes (6th) are in similar positions: both played with the US National Team Development Program last season, and are now both playing in the NCAA. College hockey can be a big adjustment for 18-year old’s, and both have started a little slow but are finding their legs, particularly Tkachuk, who has four goals and nine points in his last nine games. They’re substantially different players of course: Tkachuk is a raucous centre in the same vein as his brother and father, while Hughes is another offensively gifted defenceman.
I flirted with the idea of putting Isac Lundestrom (7th) at fifth, but changed my mind as Tkachuk began his recent hot streak. Still, the positive signs from Lundestrom this season and last should be hard to ignore. In the summer, I talked about how impressive it was that he stuck in the SHL for almost the entire season as a 17-year old, and he’s continuing to take strides. Consider this quote of mine from August:
The major negative from a statistical standpoint is his 38.1% Goals-for percentage, made worse by the fact that Lulea was roughly a 50/50 team when he was off the ice. Of course, he was a 17-year old playing in a men’s league – I’m not sure how much we should expect him to dominate two-way play. It’ll be something to keep an eye on next season.
So far this season, Lulea has accounted for 58% of the goals when Lundestrom is on the ice, and just 46% when he’s on the bench. That’s certainly a good sign that’s a positive factor for his team when he’s on the ice. His team seems to agree, as his time on ice has jumped to an average of 16:00 from 9:57 last season. He’s fourth among all U20 SHL players this season, after Vancouver’s Elias Pettersson, Buffalo’s Rasmus Asplund, and the aforementioned Rasmus Dahlin.
Guelph’s Ryan Merkley (8th) is still a very enticing defender from an offensive standpoint, but continues to struggle on the defensive side of the puck, much the same as what I said about him in August. He’s second in SEAL adjusted scoring rate only to Dahlin, and his 42 points are second only to Filip Zadina among all first time eligible skaters. But he’s still getting scored on more than he or his teammates are scoring, with a negative relative percentage even on a poor team like the Storm.
Joe Veleno (9th) continues to slip down many of the rankings, including my own. Thanks to Sean Day falling all the way to 81st in 2016, Veleno won’t have to feel the shame of being the first CHL exceptional player to not go first overall into the NHL, but falling out of the top ten seems like a distinct possibility. Playing for the woeful Saint John Sea Dogs wasn’t helping matters, so we’ll keep an eye on how he performs now that he’s been traded to the Drummondville Voltigeurs. Two signs that his luck could turn around soon: he has a shooting percentage of just 6.3% so far this season, and his 25 assists are seventh in the QMJHL despite playing for the lowest scoring team in the league. The Voltigeurs, by the way, are the Q’s highest scoring team.
Evan Bouchard (10th), the young defenceman that Olli Juolevi had taken under his wing the last two seasons in London, is coming along quite nicely: he currently has 41 points in 33 games with the Knights, putting him third among blueliners in SEAL adjusted scoring. He also has a 58% goals-for percentage at evens, and is putting 4.3 shots on net per game from the backend. All but one of his 15 pGPS matches made it to the NHL, and 60% of them spent at least 200 games there. That list includes the likes of Al MacInnis, Ed Jovanovski, and Cam Fowler. Bouchard currently sits 25th in the consolidated rankings, with only three services listing him in the top 20. It’s quite possible that Bouchard jumps up the lists as the season progresses and his point totals (and other statistical highlights) become too loud too ignore.

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I’ve got two current members of the USNTDP in the top 15, with Oliver Wahlstrom at 11th and Joel Farabee at 14th. NTDP guys can be a little bit tricky to get good analytics on. Right now my SEAL, pGPS, and Game Sheet Analytics numbers are derived from their limited games in the USHL this season (the NTDP faces a myriad of opponents over the course of their season, including the USHL, the NCAA, and other national teams), where they’ve played just seven of their games so far. Across all opponents, Wahlstrom and Farabee have compiled 31 and 27 points respectively in 26 games.
The three players that I listed as underrated in last week’s article come in at 17th (Jesperi Kotkaniemi), 18th (Cole Fonstad), and 19th (Nathan Dunkley). As early statistical standouts, these three are potential victims for regression in the second half of the season, but I have some confidence in the first two, whose draft-minus-one seasons show positive signs as well. Dunkley’s spot has a bit less security, and after going pointless in four of the final five games headed into the OHL’s 10 day Christmas break, he may be beginning to let up on his impressive early pace.
A handful of other defencemen with offensive upside populate my first round, including Ty Smith (13th), Jett Woo (15th), and Caleb Addison (22nd). Each has a pGPS Expected Likelihood of Success of more than 50%.
German Dominik Bokk (25th) has been tearing up the Swedish junior league this season, with 27 points in 19 games, and has appeared in nine games in the SHL, as a teammate of Elias Pettersson’s with the Vaxjo Lakers, where he has one goal so far. HockeyProspect.com and Sportsnet are the only two that have him ranked in the first round (at 27th and 31st respectively). I have a feeling that more services will catch on to this kid and rank him higher later on in the season.
Speaking of teammates of Canucks’ prospects, a pair of Jonathan Dahlen’s teammates with Timra appear in the thirties: Filip Hallander (31st) and Jacob Olofsson (37th). At points this season, those three have actually played on a line together in the Allsvenskan. We’re always on the lookout for players putting up points in the European professional leagues, even a second tier league like the Allsvenskan.
Before we get into the list itself, take a read through of the stats used in this article, or skip ahead and come back if you’ve forgotten what any of them are.

A Rundown of the Stats Used In These Articles

If you’ve already read this in the previous articles, you can go ahead and skip this section.
You can get draft lists from a myriad of sources, but since you came to Canucks Army, you can expect somewhat of a statistical lean. There will be video and some scouting reports as well, but much ink will be spilled on stats, as we have metrics here that you won’t find anywhere else. What follows is a brief description of each of the stats referenced in the tables below.
  • Age: Exact age to two decimal points, calculated as of September 15th, 2016. That date is used for draft purposes – anyone with an exact age greater than or equal to 16.00 and less than 17.00 as of that date will be eligible for the first time at the 2018 draft.
  • Box Cars: GP, G, A, P stand for the standard Games Played, Goals, Assists, and Points, during the 2017-18 regular season.
  • Sh/GP: Shots on goal per games played.
  • Sh%: Shooting percentage.
  • GF%: Percentage of 5-on-5 on-ice goals scored in favour of the player’s team.
  • GF%rel: The difference between the player’s on-ice GF% relative to the team’s GF% when the player is off the ice.
  • pGPS:
    • XLS is Expected Likelihood of Success for the player, based on how many similar players reached a 200 NHL game threshold, weighted by similarity.
    • XPR is the Expected Production Rate of the player per 82 games, based on how similar players produced in the NHL, weighted by similarity.
    • xVal is Expected Value, the product of XLS and XPR. Check this article to see an Expected Value curve from last year’s draft to get an idea of what constitutes a “good” xVal. Last year the expected values in the first round ranged from about 35 to 15.
  • SEAL: The SEAL adjusted scoring value. SEAL stands for Situational, Era, Age, and League. Here’s a rundown of the current iteration of SEAL, which evolved from a technique that Garret Hohl pioneered for the 2015 draft.
Certain metrics are only available for certain leagues, depending on how easily available the data is to the public, and in some cases whether or not Dylan Kirkby (our resident programmer) and I have had the time to set up the necessary data scrapers. Here’s a run down on which metrics are available in which leagues.
  • pGPS: I can run pGPS data on about 20 leagues right now, so at the top of the draft, it’s easier just to say which leagues it doesn’t do. For the purposes of this list, the missing leagues are: the MHL (Russian Junior), SM-Liiga Nuorten (Finnish Junior), and the OJHL.
  • SEAL: SEAL adjustments are currently available for all CHL leagues (WHL, OHL, QMJHL), USHL, NCAA, and all major Swedish leagues (SHL, Allsvenskan, Superelit). Dependent on availability of situational scoring data.
  • GF% and GF%rel: Currently available for all CHL leagues (WHL, OHL, QMJHL), USHL and the SHL.

2018 NHL Draft Winter Top 75

RankPlayerPosAgeHeightNat.LeagueGPGAPSh/GPSh%GF%GF%relpGPS XLS%pGPS XPRpGPS xValSEAL
1Rasmus DahlinD17.426.02SWESHL2656112.009.652.9%1.471
2Andrei SvechnikovRW17.476.02RUSOHL16147213.9422.270.6%12.3%75%5239.31.355
3Filip ZadinaLW17.806.01CZEQMJHL322422464.2517.761.7%7.4%45%5324.21.592
4Adam BoqvistD17.085.11SWESuperelit17117184.2415.322%235.10.723
5Brady TkachukC17.996.03USANCAA19410143.635.81.305
6Quinton HughesD17.925.1USANCAA1619102.692.30.986
7Isac LundestromC/LW17.866.00SWESHL2437101.0415.357.9%58%5230.01.572
8Ryan MerkleyD17.095.11CANOHL321032422.3013.240.7%-4.3%48%4722.61.410
9Joseph VelenoC17.676.01CANQMJHL31625313.066.342.5%7.5%8%443.6
10Evan BouchardD17.916.02CANOHL331130414.268.358.2%9.1%60%4124.51.328
RankPlayerPosAgeHeightNat.LeagueGPGAPSh/GPSh%GF%GF%relpGPS XLS%pGPS XPRpGPS xValSEAL
11Oliver WahlstromC/RW17.266.01USAUSHL764103.8622.266.7%17.4%24%7317.81.229
12Ryan McLeodC17.996.02CANOHL33824322.4410.855.3%17.6%26%379.41.139
13Ty SmithD17.485.10CANWHL33529343.094.863.8%13.8%57%3520.01.048
14Joel FarabeeLW17.565.11USAUSHL756112.8625.054.5%3.2%6%543.41.877
15Jett WooD17.146.00CANWHL18611171.9417.170.0%14.2%66%3824.70.966
16Akil ThomasC17.705.11USAOHL32825332.569.852.8%5.8%25%389.31.207
17Jesperi KotkaniemiC17.196.02FINLiiga3468142.975.959%4325.2
18Cole FonstadC/LW17.395.10CANWHL341130412.0615.750.9%9.7%33%4715.21.398
19Nathan DunkleyC17.375.11CANOHL271119301.7522.570.0%16.8%38%4617.61.356
20Allan McShaneC17.595.11CANOHL331020302.4711.955.0%6.6%21%377.81.100
RankPlayerPosAgeHeightNat.LeagueGPGAPSh/GPSh%GF%GF%relpGPS XLS%pGPS XPRpGPS xValSEAL
21Noah DobsonD17.696.03CANQMJHL35428323.972.957.4%3.6%27%297.90.812
22Calen AddisonD17.435.10CANWHL33730373.037.045.8%-8.2%56%3318.41.173
23Jared McIsaacD17.476.01CANQMJHL34416202.355.052.0%-9.3%17%264.50.487
24Blade JenkinsC17.106.02USAOHL321212242.0318.551.0%-1.4%24%4410.41.166
25Dominik BokkLW/RW17.626.01GERSuperelit19918271.338.353%4222.31.044
26Jack McBainC17.696.03CANOJHL33132639
27Barrett HaytonC17.276.01CANOHL331317303.0313.058.8%-4.8%28%4011.21.079
28Rasmus KupariC17.505.11FINLiiga193141.689.417%498.3
29Anderson MacDonaldLW17.336.02CANQMJHL321411252.9414.938.6%-10.8%11%454.90.895
30Bode WildeD17.646.02CANUSHL71342.007.153.8%2.5%14%324.40.572
RankPlayerPosAgeHeightNat.LeagueGPGAPSh/GPSh%GF%GF%relpGPS XLS%pGPS XPRpGPS xValSEAL
31Filip HallanderC/W17.216.01SWEAllsvenskan2558132.158.90%00.01.257
32K’Andre MillerD17.656.03USAUSHL73692.2912.563.6%13.6%1.602
33Aidan DudasC17.255.07CANOHL311620363.7213.547.6%-1.9%13%567.41.366
34Serron NoelRW17.106.05CANOHL281411251.7228.050.0%-0.5%40%4919.81.175
35Jesse YlonenRW17.956.01USAMestis258715
36Mattias SamuelssonD17.516.04USAUSHL71451.867.763.6%13.6%49%3818.60.903
37Jacob OlofssonC17.606.02SWEAllsvenskan2455102.139.80%00.0
38Grigori DenisenkoLW17.235.10RUSMHL1938113.055.2
39Kyle ToppingC17.835.11CANWHL341323362.4715.564.3%19.5%29%4312.41.016
40Nicolas BeaudinD17.945.10CANQMJHL35824322.209.162.9%10.4%26%328.50.795
RankPlayerPosAgeHeightNat.LeagueGPGAPSh/GPSh%GF%GF%relpGPS XLS%pGPS XPRpGPS xValSEAL
41Jacob RagnarssonD17.986.00SWEAllsvenskan2648120.6323.535%3913.30.764
42Yegor SokolovRW17.276.04RUSQMJHL331314272.8513.839.2%-3.8%18%519.20.929
43Gabriel FortierLW17.615.10CANQMJHL341516312.7116.347.6%-2.4%9%424.00.934
44Jonatan BerggrenC/RW17.175.10SWESuperelit261321342.3521.370%6042.00.946
45Blake McLaughlinC17.595.11USAUSHL17813212.0023.546.4%-6.4%18%5910.51.393
46Adam GinningD17.676.03SWESHL150000.630.017%244.20.202
47Jakub LaukoC/LW17.476.01CZECzech282350.799.118%5510.0
48David LevinLW/RW18.005.10ISROHL1557122.5612.241.7%-6.3%12%333.90.888
49David GustafssonC17.436.01SWESHL251230.6013.329%4713.8
50Milos RomanC17.865.11SVKWHL33821292.0012.162.5%14.0%15%375.40.855
RankPlayerPosAgeHeightNat.LeagueGPGAPSh/GPSh%GF%GF%relpGPS XLS%pGPS XPRpGPS xValSEAL
51Santeri SalmelaD17.276.01FINLiiga110001.730.019%448.4
52Alexander KhovanovC17.435.11RUSQMJHL0000
53Alexander AlexeyevD17.836.03RUSWHL25315181.687.147.1%4.5%37%269.40.674
54Philipp KurashevLW/C17.936.00SUIQMJHL33823312.888.442.5%-12.9%9%443.90.976
55Martin KautRW17.966.01CZECzech243361.1311.119%5410.0
56Filip KralD17.915.12CZEWHL22312152.365.866.7%13.3%24%245.60.667
57Oscar BackC/RW17.516.02SWESHL600028%3810.7
58Vitali KravtsovRW17.736.02RUSRussia243360.9213.64%421.8
59Benoit-Olivier GroulxC17.616.01FRAQMJHL351514292.4918.455.3%-3.4%9%474.10.865
60Kody ClarkRW17.936.01CANOHL281212242.4516.955.6%23.3%20%357.11.016
RankPlayerPosAgeHeightNat.LeagueGPGAPSh/GPSh%GF%GF%relpGPS XLS%pGPS XPRpGPS xValSEAL
61Curtis HallC17.396.02USAUSHL18107171.9428.668.2%21.8%47%4621.71.060
62Marcus WestfaltC/LW17.516.03SWESuperelit1168140.707.136%4415.80.866
63Rasmus SandinD17.535.11SWEOHL21215171.576.162.5%0.3%47%3215.20.926
64Ty DellandreaC17.156.01CANOHL331214263.3310.937.8%-1.7%25%4110.30.854
65Riley SutterRW17.896.02CANWHL351212242.7513.157.1%7.7%9%302.80.789
66Nando EggenbergerLW/RW17.946.02SUINLA252240%00.0
67Adam SamuelssonD17.246.05USAUSHL72131.0028.669.2%20.6%29%288.10.326
68Albin ErikssonLW17.166.04SWESHL241313263.2116.941%4417.90.755
69Xavier BouchardD17.556.03CANQMJHL32110111.472.143.5%-9.2%6%211.30.328
70Dmitri ZavgorodnyC17.105.09RUSQMJHL291010202.2115.659.5%2.4%6%452.60.880
RankPlayerPosAgeHeightNat.LeagueGPGAPSh/GPSh%GF%GF%relpGPS XLS%pGPS XPRpGPS xValSEAL
71Axel AnderssonD17.606.00SWESuperelit25319222.325.222%7516.70.645
72David LiljaC17.655.11SWEAllsvenskan233580.5223.10%00.00.652
73Lukas WernblomC/LW17.155.09SWESuperelit1446102.7110.53%270.80.447
74Niklas NordgrenRW17.375.09FINLiiga100111.600.023%5613.1
75Carter RobertsonD17.676.02CANOHL221451.303.351.7%15.1%7%201.50.275
 

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