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3 ways the Canucks could win too many games in 2026-27

Photo credit: © Bob Frid-Imagn Images

By Jeffrey Kennett

Aug 28, 2026, 10:00 EDTUpdated: Aug 27, 2026, 18:50 EDT

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The Vancouver Canucks are in a position where every spot in the standings matters.

Finishing 32nd overall last season gave Vancouver the NHL’s best draft lottery odds and a 25.5% chance of receiving the first-overall pick. By comparison, the second-last team had a 13.5% chance at the top selection, while the fifth-last team’s chances had diluted to 8.5% with the possibility of falling as low as seventh in the order.

The difference between picking one and two can be massive. Macklin Celebrini went first overall in 2024, one before Artyom Levshunov; Jack Hughes went first overall in 2019, Kaapo Kakko went second; and Nico Hischier went one, with Nolan Patrick going two.

It’s safe to say everyone would prefer the first set of names, but Vancouver could still have a poor season in 2026-27 and find itself several spots further down the draft order if the team doesn’t monitor its situation closely.

A few things would have to break the Canucks’ way for that to happen, although none of them are overly far-fetched:

Pacific Division stays weak

Last season showed how little separates the Pacific.

Vegas won the division with just 95 points, followed by Edmonton at 93, Anaheim at 92 and Los Angeles at 90. Further down, Seattle finished with 79 points, Calgary had 77, and Vancouver brought up the rear with 58. If Anaheim, Los Angeles or Seattle gives back even a handful of points, the teams below them can move up without making a dramatic improvement of their own.

Vancouver does not need to become a playoff team to move up the standings. They only need to pass one or two teams that were already within striking distance of the bottom last season. The Canucks finished 19 points behind Seattle and 21 behind Calgary. A modest improvement from Vancouver, combined with even a small decline from either rival, could erase that gap quickly.

Calgary has continued leaning into its youth movement after trading Nazem Kadri, Rasmus Andersson and MacKenzie Weegar last season, then moving 20-goal scorer Blake Coleman this summer. The Flames were already the NHL’s lowest-scoring team at 2.54 goals per game, and now it seems unlikely Calgary has the personnel to out-score last season’s total.

Los Angeles has a more volatile set of outcomes. The Kings enter their first season without Anze Kopitar, who had been the franchise’s captain and top centre for nearly two decades. They will instead rely on an ageing group of additions that includes Mats Zuccarello, Erik Haula and Corey Perry. Even if those players remain useful, replacing Kopitar’s minutes, faceoff work and defensive responsibility is a much larger challenge than replacing a typical middle-six forward.

Every club now plays 28 divisional games, up from 26 previously, so the Canucks will see Calgary, Seattle and Los Angeles four times each under the NHL’s new 84-game schedule.

If Calgary finishes below Vancouver and Seattle fails to improve on a 28th-ranked offence, the Canucks could climb one or two places simply by being more competitive against the bottom half of their own division.

Veterans bounce back under Manny Malhotra

Several players on Vancouver’s roster are coming off seasons well below their previous standards.

Elias Pettersson led the Canucks with only 51 points in 74 games and Brock Boeser scored 22 goals and 48 points — although his season ended on an encouraging note with 10 goals and 23 points in 25 games following the Olympic break.

Kevin Lankinen is another bounce-back candidate. His save percentage fell from .902 in 2024-25 to .876 last season while playing behind a Canucks team that surrendered the second-most high-danger chances in the league.

Even moderate improvement from that group could swing a couple of games in the Canucks’ favour. Pettersson reaching 70 points, Boeser getting back around 30 goals and Lankinen returning near .900 all seem fairly reasonable outcomes based on what each has done previously.

A positive development, although one that could impact the fringes of the rebuild, is Linus Karlsson adding another layer to his game. The 26-year-old scored 15 goals and 35 points while averaging just 12:27 per game during his first full NHL season. Thirteen of those goals came at even strength, and reuniting with Malhotra should see Karlsson’s ice time increase.

Along with Karlsson, Malhotra has familiarity with much of the roster. He worked with Pettersson and Boeser during his previous stint as a Canucks assistant and spent the past two seasons developing players in Abbotsford. General manager Ryan Johnson specifically highlighted Malhotra’s ability to teach and help players improve when announcing his hiring.

Several of those small rebounds across the lineup could end up costing the Canucks pivotal placements come draft lottery day.

Young players level up ahead of schedule

This might be the best problem Vancouver could have in 2026-27.

Braeden Cootes is coming off 63 points in 45 WHL games and has already experienced the NHL after making last season’s opening roster. Another strong training camp could put the 19-year-old centre in the conversation for NHL minutes much sooner than expected, particularly given Vancouver’s weakness down the middle. The possibility remains that Cootes earns more than another short look if his pace, competitiveness and ability to play responsibly away from the puck translate quickly.

Jonathan Lekkerimäki is another potential source of offence after an injury-disrupted season limited him to 13 NHL games last season. The former first-round pick has the shooting ability to make an impact, and a healthy training camp could give him a chance to solidify a role rather than simply audition for a few games.

Aatu Räty, meanwhile, played 66 games last year and won 60.5% of his faceoffs, the seventh-best rate in the NHL. His value is already apparent in the details of the game, but another step could make him more than a dependable depth centre. If Räty improves his offence while maintaining that all-around impact, he could become a regular part of Vancouver’s lineup and do more with the opportunity.

On defence, Victor Mancini appeared in 24 NHL games last season, while Kirill Kudryavtsev recorded 20 points in 44 AHL games and picked up two assists during a three-game NHL stint. Mancini could level up simply by becoming comfortable with NHL pace and decision-making, while Kudryavtsev’s puck movement could give the Canucks another option on the back end if he adapts quickly.

If two or three of those players become dependable NHL contributors ahead of schedule, Vancouver suddenly has greater depth than it did during a 58-point season.

That creates some interesting tension. Seeing Cootes establish himself, Lekkerimäki score goals, or Mancini grab a regular role would all qualify as significant positives for the organization. But combine those developments with better seasons from Pettersson, Boeser, and Lankinen, plus a few Pacific rivals taking steps backwards, and the standings can change quickly.

Vancouver does not have to improve by 20-30 points for its lottery position to take a hit. Even climbing from last overall to fourth or fifth-last would dramatically reduce its odds of landing the first pick and remove the security of drafting in the top three.

A handful of extra wins might not seem like much, but could carry a surprisingly high cost.

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