As mentioned last week, I’ve been working to get some 2018 NHL Draft content together as we head toward the World Juniors that kick off officially in just under a week. I started with a consolidated list of some major industry rankings, before digging into some potentially overrated and underrated players.
Today I’m unveiling my own list of 75 draft eligible prospects, complete with a variety of biographical and statistical data. Before we get to that, I’ve compiled some notes on trends and some notable prospects.
This appears to be the year of the offensive defenceman. It’s been since 2014 since a defenceman was taken first overall, and Aaron Ekblad was hardly a guarantee to go at no. 1. Rasmus Dahlin seems unshakable from his perch for the time being, and there are a plethora of offensively gifted defencemen following behind him. I’ve got five defencemen in my top ten, which is just one more than the consolidated rankings did. The question is, is that wise? History hasn’t been kind to draft with top ten’s that are heavy on blueliners. It’ll be something to keep an eye on next June, as teams are well aware of these trends and offensive defencemen are among the most likely types of players to fall on draft day.
On to the players themselves. No hot takes at first overall for me: like every major industry ranking around, I have Swedish defensive phenom Rasmus Dahlin at the top of my list. It wasn’t a difficult decision – Dahlin is a truly incredible player to watch. How often do you highlights of non-NHL players showing up on twitter that aren’t even goals? Dahlin’s dangles, whether they results in goals or not, show up on social media on a weekly basis; that’s just the kind of foothold this kid already has in the hockey world.
Statistically speaking, everything is going about as well as you’d expect from a future first overall pick. Dahlin leads all draft eligible defencemen in SEAL adjusted scoring (and sits 5th among all skaters), he’s averaging 2.0 shots on net per game, has a positive goal differential and even strength, and is simply too damn good for our pGPS cohort model: Dahlin has zero matches, largely due to the fact that he has a hire adjusted point rate than any other SHL defenceman in his age and stature range in the pGPS database.
Not to be deterred, Russian winger Andrei Svechnikov (2nd) is rediscovering his offensive prowess after missing significant time with an injury. Svechnikov has played just 16 games this season, making it difficult to get a read on some of the underlying trends. Last season, Svechnikov was utterly dominant in the USHL and had a tremendous effect on his Muskegan Lumberjacks teammates whenever he was on the ice (as detailed in the 1-5 section of my summer draft rankings). Early returns are showing similar patterns: he has a 70.6% goals-for percentage, and a +12.3 GF%rel.
I differ from many of the rankings at third overall, where I’ve got Filip Zadina. Like Nico Hischier last year, the Czech winger is tearing up the QMJHL in his rookie year after with the Halifax Mooseheads – he’s even close to matching Hischier’s points per game rate (1.44 to Hischier’s 1.51). Zadina leads all draft eligible players with at least 10 games played in SEAL adjusted scoring so far this season, and is putting more than four shots on net per game.
Another Swedish defenceman sits at no. 4: Adam Boqvist. Like all offensive d-men, especially Swedes, Boqvist has received plenty of comparisons to Erik Karlsson. Boqvist’s production in the Superelit Swedish junior league is on par with Karlsson’s, as his his one point in eight SHL games – Karlsson only had one point in seven SHL games in his draft season, which is part of why he managed to stay on the board until 15th overall in 2008. We wouldn’t expect Boqvist to put up massive numbers in the SHL at this point, but it would be nice if he could stick there. Just recently he was loaned to the Allsvenskan. If teams hope that he’ll have Karlsson-like production in the NHL, they’ll be looking for more in Sweden as the season goes on.
Brady Tkachuk (5th) and Quinn Hughes (6th) are in similar positions: both played with the US National Team Development Program last season, and are now both playing in the NCAA. College hockey can be a big adjustment for 18-year old’s, and both have started a little slow but are finding their legs, particularly Tkachuk, who has four goals and nine points in his last nine games. They’re substantially different players of course: Tkachuk is a raucous centre in the same vein as his brother and father, while Hughes is another offensively gifted defenceman.
I flirted with the idea of putting Isac Lundestrom (7th) at fifth, but changed my mind as Tkachuk began his recent hot streak. Still, the positive signs from Lundestrom this season and last should be hard to ignore. In the summer, I talked about how impressive it was that he stuck in the SHL for almost the entire season as a 17-year old, and he’s continuing to take strides. Consider this quote of mine from August:
The major negative from a statistical standpoint is his 38.1% Goals-for percentage, made worse by the fact that Lulea was roughly a 50/50 team when he was off the ice. Of course, he was a 17-year old playing in a men’s league – I’m not sure how much we should expect him to dominate two-way play. It’ll be something to keep an eye on next season.
So far this season, Lulea has accounted for 58% of the goals when Lundestrom is on the ice, and just 46% when he’s on the bench. That’s certainly a good sign that’s a positive factor for his team when he’s on the ice. His team seems to agree, as his time on ice has jumped to an average of 16:00 from 9:57 last season. He’s fourth among all U20 SHL players this season, after Vancouver’s Elias Pettersson, Buffalo’s Rasmus Asplund, and the aforementioned Rasmus Dahlin.
Guelph’s Ryan Merkley (8th) is still a very enticing defender from an offensive standpoint, but continues to struggle on the defensive side of the puck, much the same as what I said about him in August. He’s second in SEAL adjusted scoring rate only to Dahlin, and his 42 points are second only to Filip Zadina among all first time eligible skaters. But he’s still getting scored on more than he or his teammates are scoring, with a negative relative percentage even on a poor team like the Storm.
Joe Veleno (9th) continues to slip down many of the rankings, including my own. Thanks to Sean Day falling all the way to 81st in 2016, Veleno won’t have to feel the shame of being the first CHL exceptional player to not go first overall into the NHL, but falling out of the top ten seems like a distinct possibility. Playing for the woeful Saint John Sea Dogs wasn’t helping matters, so we’ll keep an eye on how he performs now that he’s been traded to the Drummondville Voltigeurs. Two signs that his luck could turn around soon: he has a shooting percentage of just 6.3% so far this season, and his 25 assists are seventh in the QMJHL despite playing for the lowest scoring team in the league. The Voltigeurs, by the way, are the Q’s highest scoring team.
Evan Bouchard (10th), the young defenceman that Olli Juolevi had taken under his wing the last two seasons in London, is coming along quite nicely: he currently has 41 points in 33 games with the Knights, putting him third among blueliners in SEAL adjusted scoring. He also has a 58% goals-for percentage at evens, and is putting 4.3 shots on net per game from the backend. All but one of his 15 pGPS matches made it to the NHL, and 60% of them spent at least 200 games there. That list includes the likes of Al MacInnis, Ed Jovanovski, and Cam Fowler. Bouchard currently sits 25th in the consolidated rankings, with only three services listing him in the top 20. It’s quite possible that Bouchard jumps up the lists as the season progresses and his point totals (and other statistical highlights) become too loud too ignore.
I’ve got two current members of the USNTDP in the top 15, with Oliver Wahlstrom at 11th and Joel Farabee at 14th. NTDP guys can be a little bit tricky to get good analytics on. Right now my SEAL, pGPS, and Game Sheet Analytics numbers are derived from their limited games in the USHL this season (the NTDP faces a myriad of opponents over the course of their season, including the USHL, the NCAA, and other national teams), where they’ve played just seven of their games so far. Across all opponents, Wahlstrom and Farabee have compiled 31 and 27 points respectively in 26 games.
The three players that I listed as underrated in last week’s article come in at 17th (Jesperi Kotkaniemi), 18th (Cole Fonstad), and 19th (Nathan Dunkley). As early statistical standouts, these three are potential victims for regression in the second half of the season, but I have some confidence in the first two, whose draft-minus-one seasons show positive signs as well. Dunkley’s spot has a bit less security, and after going pointless in four of the final five games headed into the OHL’s 10 day Christmas break, he may be beginning to let up on his impressive early pace.
A handful of other defencemen with offensive upside populate my first round, including Ty Smith (13th), Jett Woo (15th), and Caleb Addison (22nd). Each has a pGPS Expected Likelihood of Success of more than 50%.
German Dominik Bokk (25th) has been tearing up the Swedish junior league this season, with 27 points in 19 games, and has appeared in nine games in the SHL, as a teammate of Elias Pettersson’s with the Vaxjo Lakers, where he has one goal so far. HockeyProspect.com and Sportsnet are the only two that have him ranked in the first round (at 27th and 31st respectively). I have a feeling that more services will catch on to this kid and rank him higher later on in the season.
Speaking of teammates of Canucks’ prospects, a pair of Jonathan Dahlen’s teammates with Timra appear in the thirties: Filip Hallander (31st) and Jacob Olofsson (37th). At points this season, those three have actually played on a line together in the Allsvenskan. We’re always on the lookout for players putting up points in the European professional leagues, even a second tier league like the Allsvenskan.
Before we get into the list itself, take a read through of the stats used in this article, or skip ahead and come back if you’ve forgotten what any of them are.

A Rundown of the Stats Used In These Articles

If you’ve already read this in the previous articles, you can go ahead and skip this section.
You can get draft lists from a myriad of sources, but since you came to Canucks Army, you can expect somewhat of a statistical lean. There will be video and some scouting reports as well, but much ink will be spilled on stats, as we have metrics here that you won’t find anywhere else. What follows is a brief description of each of the stats referenced in the tables below.
  • Age: Exact age to two decimal points, calculated as of September 15th, 2016. That date is used for draft purposes – anyone with an exact age greater than or equal to 16.00 and less than 17.00 as of that date will be eligible for the first time at the 2018 draft.
  • Box Cars: GP, G, A, P stand for the standard Games Played, Goals, Assists, and Points, during the 2017-18 regular season.
  • Sh/GP: Shots on goal per games played.
  • Sh%: Shooting percentage.
  • GF%: Percentage of 5-on-5 on-ice goals scored in favour of the player’s team.
  • GF%rel: The difference between the player’s on-ice GF% relative to the team’s GF% when the player is off the ice.
  • pGPS:
    • XLS is Expected Likelihood of Success for the player, based on how many similar players reached a 200 NHL game threshold, weighted by similarity.
    • XPR is the Expected Production Rate of the player per 82 games, based on how similar players produced in the NHL, weighted by similarity.
    • xVal is Expected Value, the product of XLS and XPR. Check this article to see an Expected Value curve from last year’s draft to get an idea of what constitutes a “good” xVal. Last year the expected values in the first round ranged from about 35 to 15.
  • SEAL: The SEAL adjusted scoring value. SEAL stands for Situational, Era, Age, and League. Here’s a rundown of the current iteration of SEAL, which evolved from a technique that Garret Hohl pioneered for the 2015 draft.
Certain metrics are only available for certain leagues, depending on how easily available the data is to the public, and in some cases whether or not Dylan Kirkby (our resident programmer) and I have had the time to set up the necessary data scrapers. Here’s a run down on which metrics are available in which leagues.
  • pGPS: I can run pGPS data on about 20 leagues right now, so at the top of the draft, it’s easier just to say which leagues it doesn’t do. For the purposes of this list, the missing leagues are: the MHL (Russian Junior), SM-Liiga Nuorten (Finnish Junior), and the OJHL.
  • SEAL: SEAL adjustments are currently available for all CHL leagues (WHL, OHL, QMJHL), USHL, NCAA, and all major Swedish leagues (SHL, Allsvenskan, Superelit). Dependent on availability of situational scoring data.
  • GF% and GF%rel: Currently available for all CHL leagues (WHL, OHL, QMJHL), USHL and the SHL.

2018 NHL Draft Winter Top 75

Rank
Player
Pos
Age
Height
Nat.
League
GP
G
A
P
Sh/GP
Sh%
GF%
GF%rel
pGPS XLS%
pGPS XPR
pGPS xVal
SEAL
1
Rasmus Dahlin
D
17.42
6.02
SWE
SHL
26
5
6
11
2.00
9.6
52.9%
1.471
2
Andrei Svechnikov
RW
17.47
6.02
RUS
OHL
16
14
7
21
3.94
22.2
70.6%
12.3%
75%
52
39.3
1.355
3
Filip Zadina
LW
17.80
6.01
CZE
QMJHL
32
24
22
46
4.25
17.7
61.7%
7.4%
45%
53
24.2
1.592
4
Adam Boqvist
D
17.08
5.11
SWE
Superelit
17
11
7
18
4.24
15.3
22%
23
5.1
0.723
5
Brady Tkachuk
C
17.99
6.03
USA
NCAA
19
4
10
14
3.63
5.8
1.305
6
Quinton Hughes
D
17.92
5.1
USA
NCAA
16
1
9
10
2.69
2.3
0.986
7
Isac Lundestrom
C/LW
17.86
6.00
SWE
SHL
24
3
7
10
1.04
15.3
57.9%
58%
52
30.0
1.572
8
Ryan Merkley
D
17.09
5.11
CAN
OHL
32
10
32
42
2.30
13.2
40.7%
-4.3%
48%
47
22.6
1.410
9
Joseph Veleno
C
17.67
6.01
CAN
QMJHL
31
6
25
31
3.06
6.3
42.5%
7.5%
8%
44
3.6
10
Evan Bouchard
D
17.91
6.02
CAN
OHL
33
11
30
41
4.26
8.3
58.2%
9.1%
60%
41
24.5
1.328
Rank
Player
Pos
Age
Height
Nat.
League
GP
G
A
P
Sh/GP
Sh%
GF%
GF%rel
pGPS XLS%
pGPS XPR
pGPS xVal
SEAL
11
Oliver Wahlstrom
C/RW
17.26
6.01
USA
USHL
7
6
4
10
3.86
22.2
66.7%
17.4%
24%
73
17.8
1.229
12
Ryan McLeod
C
17.99
6.02
CAN
OHL
33
8
24
32
2.44
10.8
55.3%
17.6%
26%
37
9.4
1.139
13
Ty Smith
D
17.48
5.10
CAN
WHL
33
5
29
34
3.09
4.8
63.8%
13.8%
57%
35
20.0
1.048
14
Joel Farabee
LW
17.56
5.11
USA
USHL
7
5
6
11
2.86
25.0
54.5%
3.2%
6%
54
3.4
1.877
15
Jett Woo
D
17.14
6.00
CAN
WHL
18
6
11
17
1.94
17.1
70.0%
14.2%
66%
38
24.7
0.966
16
Akil Thomas
C
17.70
5.11
USA
OHL
32
8
25
33
2.56
9.8
52.8%
5.8%
25%
38
9.3
1.207
17
Jesperi Kotkaniemi
C
17.19
6.02
FIN
Liiga
34
6
8
14
2.97
5.9
59%
43
25.2
18
Cole Fonstad
C/LW
17.39
5.10
CAN
WHL
34
11
30
41
2.06
15.7
50.9%
9.7%
33%
47
15.2
1.398
19
Nathan Dunkley
C
17.37
5.11
CAN
OHL
27
11
19
30
1.75
22.5
70.0%
16.8%
38%
46
17.6
1.356
20
Allan McShane
C
17.59
5.11
CAN
OHL
33
10
20
30
2.47
11.9
55.0%
6.6%
21%
37
7.8
1.100
Rank
Player
Pos
Age
Height
Nat.
League
GP
G
A
P
Sh/GP
Sh%
GF%
GF%rel
pGPS XLS%
pGPS XPR
pGPS xVal
SEAL
21
Noah Dobson
D
17.69
6.03
CAN
QMJHL
35
4
28
32
3.97
2.9
57.4%
3.6%
27%
29
7.9
0.812
22
Calen Addison
D
17.43
5.10
CAN
WHL
33
7
30
37
3.03
7.0
45.8%
-8.2%
56%
33
18.4
1.173
23
Jared McIsaac
D
17.47
6.01
CAN
QMJHL
34
4
16
20
2.35
5.0
52.0%
-9.3%
17%
26
4.5
0.487
24
Blade Jenkins
C
17.10
6.02
USA
OHL
32
12
12
24
2.03
18.5
51.0%
-1.4%
24%
44
10.4
1.166
25
Dominik Bokk
LW/RW
17.62
6.01
GER
Superelit
19
9
18
27
1.33
8.3
53%
42
22.3
1.044
26
Jack McBain
C
17.69
6.03
CAN
OJHL
33
13
26
39
27
Barrett Hayton
C
17.27
6.01
CAN
OHL
33
13
17
30
3.03
13.0
58.8%
-4.8%
28%
40
11.2
1.079
28
Rasmus Kupari
C
17.50
5.11
FIN
Liiga
19
3
1
4
1.68
9.4
17%
49
8.3
29
Anderson MacDonald
LW
17.33
6.02
CAN
QMJHL
32
14
11
25
2.94
14.9
38.6%
-10.8%
11%
45
4.9
0.895
30
Bode Wilde
D
17.64
6.02
CAN
USHL
7
1
3
4
2.00
7.1
53.8%
2.5%
14%
32
4.4
0.572
Rank
Player
Pos
Age
Height
Nat.
League
GP
G
A
P
Sh/GP
Sh%
GF%
GF%rel
pGPS XLS%
pGPS XPR
pGPS xVal
SEAL
31
Filip Hallander
C/W
17.21
6.01
SWE
Allsvenskan
25
5
8
13
2.15
8.9
0%
0
0.0
1.257
32
K’Andre Miller
D
17.65
6.03
USA
USHL
7
3
6
9
2.29
12.5
63.6%
13.6%
1.602
33
Aidan Dudas
C
17.25
5.07
CAN
OHL
31
16
20
36
3.72
13.5
47.6%
-1.9%
13%
56
7.4
1.366
34
Serron Noel
RW
17.10
6.05
CAN
OHL
28
14
11
25
1.72
28.0
50.0%
-0.5%
40%
49
19.8
1.175
35
Jesse Ylonen
RW
17.95
6.01
USA
Mestis
25
8
7
15
36
Mattias Samuelsson
D
17.51
6.04
USA
USHL
7
1
4
5
1.86
7.7
63.6%
13.6%
49%
38
18.6
0.903
37
Jacob Olofsson
C
17.60
6.02
SWE
Allsvenskan
24
5
5
10
2.13
9.8
0%
0
0.0
38
Grigori Denisenko
LW
17.23
5.10
RUS
MHL
19
3
8
11
3.05
5.2
39
Kyle Topping
C
17.83
5.11
CAN
WHL
34
13
23
36
2.47
15.5
64.3%
19.5%
29%
43
12.4
1.016
40
Nicolas Beaudin
D
17.94
5.10
CAN
QMJHL
35
8
24
32
2.20
9.1
62.9%
10.4%
26%
32
8.5
0.795
Rank
Player
Pos
Age
Height
Nat.
League
GP
G
A
P
Sh/GP
Sh%
GF%
GF%rel
pGPS XLS%
pGPS XPR
pGPS xVal
SEAL
41
Jacob Ragnarsson
D
17.98
6.00
SWE
Allsvenskan
26
4
8
12
0.63
23.5
35%
39
13.3
0.764
42
Yegor Sokolov
RW
17.27
6.04
RUS
QMJHL
33
13
14
27
2.85
13.8
39.2%
-3.8%
18%
51
9.2
0.929
43
Gabriel Fortier
LW
17.61
5.10
CAN
QMJHL
34
15
16
31
2.71
16.3
47.6%
-2.4%
9%
42
4.0
0.934
44
Jonatan Berggren
C/RW
17.17
5.10
SWE
Superelit
26
13
21
34
2.35
21.3
70%
60
42.0
0.946
45
Blake McLaughlin
C
17.59
5.11
USA
USHL
17
8
13
21
2.00
23.5
46.4%
-6.4%
18%
59
10.5
1.393
46
Adam Ginning
D
17.67
6.03
SWE
SHL
15
0
0
0
0.63
0.0
17%
24
4.2
0.202
47
Jakub Lauko
C/LW
17.47
6.01
CZE
Czech
28
2
3
5
0.79
9.1
18%
55
10.0
48
David Levin
LW/RW
18.00
5.10
ISR
OHL
15
5
7
12
2.56
12.2
41.7%
-6.3%
12%
33
3.9
0.888
49
David Gustafsson
C
17.43
6.01
SWE
SHL
25
1
2
3
0.60
13.3
29%
47
13.8
50
Milos Roman
C
17.86
5.11
SVK
WHL
33
8
21
29
2.00
12.1
62.5%
14.0%
15%
37
5.4
0.855
Rank
Player
Pos
Age
Height
Nat.
League
GP
G
A
P
Sh/GP
Sh%
GF%
GF%rel
pGPS XLS%
pGPS XPR
pGPS xVal
SEAL
51
Santeri Salmela
D
17.27
6.01
FIN
Liiga
11
0
0
0
1.73
0.0
19%
44
8.4
52
Alexander Khovanov
C
17.43
5.11
RUS
QMJHL
0
0
0
0
53
Alexander Alexeyev
D
17.83
6.03
RUS
WHL
25
3
15
18
1.68
7.1
47.1%
4.5%
37%
26
9.4
0.674
54
Philipp Kurashev
LW/C
17.93
6.00
SUI
QMJHL
33
8
23
31
2.88
8.4
42.5%
-12.9%
9%
44
3.9
0.976
55
Martin Kaut
RW
17.96
6.01
CZE
Czech
24
3
3
6
1.13
11.1
19%
54
10.0
56
Filip Kral
D
17.91
5.12
CZE
WHL
22
3
12
15
2.36
5.8
66.7%
13.3%
24%
24
5.6
0.667
57
Oscar Back
C/RW
17.51
6.02
SWE
SHL
6
0
0
0
28%
38
10.7
58
Vitali Kravtsov
RW
17.73
6.02
RUS
Russia
24
3
3
6
0.92
13.6
4%
42
1.8
59
Benoit-Olivier Groulx
C
17.61
6.01
FRA
QMJHL
35
15
14
29
2.49
18.4
55.3%
-3.4%
9%
47
4.1
0.865
60
Kody Clark
RW
17.93
6.01
CAN
OHL
28
12
12
24
2.45
16.9
55.6%
23.3%
20%
35
7.1
1.016
Rank
Player
Pos
Age
Height
Nat.
League
GP
G
A
P
Sh/GP
Sh%
GF%
GF%rel
pGPS XLS%
pGPS XPR
pGPS xVal
SEAL
61
Curtis Hall
C
17.39
6.02
USA
USHL
18
10
7
17
1.94
28.6
68.2%
21.8%
47%
46
21.7
1.060
62
Marcus Westfalt
C/LW
17.51
6.03
SWE
Superelit
11
6
8
14
0.70
7.1
36%
44
15.8
0.866
63
Rasmus Sandin
D
17.53
5.11
SWE
OHL
21
2
15
17
1.57
6.1
62.5%
0.3%
47%
32
15.2
0.926
64
Ty Dellandrea
C
17.15
6.01
CAN
OHL
33
12
14
26
3.33
10.9
37.8%
-1.7%
25%
41
10.3
0.854
65
Riley Sutter
RW
17.89
6.02
CAN
WHL
35
12
12
24
2.75
13.1
57.1%
7.7%
9%
30
2.8
0.789
66
Nando Eggenberger
LW/RW
17.94
6.02
SUI
NLA
25
2
2
4
0%
0
0.0
67
Adam Samuelsson
D
17.24
6.05
USA
USHL
7
2
1
3
1.00
28.6
69.2%
20.6%
29%
28
8.1
0.326
68
Albin Eriksson
LW
17.16
6.04
SWE
SHL
24
13
13
26
3.21
16.9
41%
44
17.9
0.755
69
Xavier Bouchard
D
17.55
6.03
CAN
QMJHL
32
1
10
11
1.47
2.1
43.5%
-9.2%
6%
21
1.3
0.328
70
Dmitri Zavgorodny
C
17.10
5.09
RUS
QMJHL
29
10
10
20
2.21
15.6
59.5%
2.4%
6%
45
2.6
0.880
Rank
Player
Pos
Age
Height
Nat.
League
GP
G
A
P
Sh/GP
Sh%
GF%
GF%rel
pGPS XLS%
pGPS XPR
pGPS xVal
SEAL
71
Axel Andersson
D
17.60
6.00
SWE
Superelit
25
3
19
22
2.32
5.2
22%
75
16.7
0.645
72
David Lilja
C
17.65
5.11
SWE
Allsvenskan
23
3
5
8
0.52
23.1
0%
0
0.0
0.652
73
Lukas Wernblom
C/LW
17.15
5.09
SWE
Superelit
14
4
6
10
2.71
10.5
3%
27
0.8
0.447
74
Niklas Nordgren
RW
17.37
5.09
FIN
Liiga
10
0
1
1
1.60
0.0
23%
56
13.1
75
Carter Robertson
D
17.67
6.02
CAN
OHL
22
1
4
5
1.30
3.3
51.7%
15.1%
7%
20
1.5
0.275