Ah, it sure is good to be back. It’s been a year since the Vancouver Canucks were last in the playoffs, but for Calgary, it has been much longer than that – this season puts an end to a streak of five consecutive on the outside looking in come mid-April. And with Vancouver having the most successful period of their (admittedly pretty sad and depressing) franchise history over that same time span, the once red-hot Canucks-Flames rivalry has kind of fizzled to just a spark of what it once was.

The two teams now get a chance to rekindle this rivalry in their first playoff meeting since 2003-2004. How can we expect this series to shake down, and who’s going to come out on top? Find out on the other side of the jump.

Calgary and Vancouver’s season series was pretty close on paper, with the Flames having the edge in head-to-head points with a 2-1-1 record for five points to the Canucks’ 2-2-0 record for four. 

As was the case all year, each team’s top offensive players led the way against their Pacific division opponents, as both the Sedin twins and the Hudler-Monahan-Gaudreau line were their team’s offensive catalysts. The Sedins and then-linemate Radim Vrbata chipped in with three goals and five assists in the four-game set, while the Flames top offensive unit answered with four goals and six assists of their own, led by Hudler’s series-high four points.

Despite taking more head-to-head points, the Flames generally were out-played at even strength against the Canucks, as was the case for Calgary the majority of the season. At even strength, Vancouver held the edge in head-to-head shots (112-93, 54.6%), scoring chances (99-87, 53.2%), and shot attempts (218-166, 56.8%). The good news for the Flames is that while Vancouver did out-attempt and out-shoot them in 3 of 4 meetings, most of these differentials, and the entire edge in scoring chances, come from just one meeting when Joni Ortio out-dueled Eddie Lack and led Calgary to a 1-0 win on January 10th.

Calgary, however, was able to score 8 even strength goals compared to Vancouver’s paltry 3, thanks in large part to some plus-level finishing, suspect Canucks goaltending, and standout play by Jonas Hiller, Karri Ramo, and the aforementioned Joni Ortio.

All three Flames goalies posted elite even strength numbers over the balance of the season series, as they combined for a staggering 0.958 save percentage, compared to the Canucks’ below average 0.915. Jonas Hiller appeared in two games, stopping 51 of 54 shots, Joni Ortio pitched a 36-save shutout, and Karri Ramo also had a strong appearance in his one start against Vancouver, stopping 27 of 29 shots directed his way. Eddie Lack answered with a strong game for Vancouver in his start, but Ryan Miller wasn’t up to the task. Miller allowed 7 goals on 75 even strength shots for a pretty poor 0.907 save percentage of his own.

To be completely up-front, both Vancouver and Calgary are pretty poor teams at 5-on-5, and probably two of the three worst even strength teams in the playoffs. Both teams were out-scored at even strength this season, and they are the only teams to make the playoffs this season with a negative goal differential at 5-on-5. The Flames were only outscored by two goals on the year, but they also saw some pretty favourable variance.

As a team, the Flames’ shooting percentage was extremely high at 8.9%, which is good for about 15-20 goals above what an average shooting team could expect over an 82-game season. Johnny Gaudreau, Sean Monahan, and Jiri Hudler are all talented enough to be legitimate drivers of shooting percentage in the long run, but there’s no reason why guys like VANCOUVER GIANTS LEGEND Lance Bouma or Joe Colborne or Josh Jooris should continue to see pucks go in the net at the same rate as guys like Steven Stamkos or Sidney Crosby do.

A lot of goals for also masked a pretty brutal defensive season for high scoring Dennis Wideman and shot-blocking ace Kris Russel. Wideman and Russel allow scoring chances at the highest rate among any defensemen in the playoffs, and are one of the most permissive tandems in the NHL. Heart-and-soul guy Deryk Engelland is also absolutely atrocious at preventing scoring chances, as are the rest of the Flames. As a team, the Flames allowed scoring chances at a rate worse than both Edmonton and Arizona, and were the fourth most out-chanced team in the entire NHL.

Unfortunately for the Canucks, they weren’t much better. We highlighted Vancouver’s defensive woes this morning at Canucks Army, pointing out that they allow shots against from the slot at a similar rate to Calgary, Edmonton, and Arizona too. They were also out-scored at even strength this year, thanks to some shaky 5-on-5 goaltending from both Ryan Miller and Eddie Lack, and have the very worst even strength goal differential among playoff teams – very much not a recipe for success.

Even if Vancouver is a poor 5-on-5 team, they should still have a significant edge over the Flames in this regard. While a bottom-10 team in score adjusted possession themselves, the Canucks were still significantly better at generating chances and offensive pressure than Calgary. According to War-on-ice.com and Puckon.net, the Flames were a bottom-5 NHL team at producing shots on goal, scoring chances, and shot attempts, and carry the 3rd worst score adjusted Corsi% in the NHL at an abysmal 44.4%.

Still, the Canucks aren’t world beaters by any measure and are prone to massive defensive lapses. The Flames already skated with them in the regular season and tore them apart on the scoreboard, and if guys like Luca Sbisa or Kevin Bieksa aren’t careful, Calgary’s top line could absolutely destroy them in transition. On the other hand, it’s just as likely if not more so that the Sedins take Calgary’s kids to school with their still-strong two-way play.

While we tend to focus on success rates as a gauge of special teams success, there are really two facets to driving a strong goal differential in special teams situations: how good a team is on the powerplay or penalty kill, and how often they’re able to put themselves on the powerplay and avoid the penalty kill. And this second area is where the Calgary Flames are truly an elite team.

The Flames drew about an average amount of penalties this season, but they were almost never on the penalty kill. Only the Carolina Hurricanes took fewer penalties than Calgary’s 176 this season, showing that the Flames are one of the most disciplined teams in the NHL, and are excellent at avoiding putting themselves in a position where they’re exponentially more likely to give up the next goal.

This results in a league-leading penalty differential of +47, which is 75 penalties better than Vancouver’s 25th place -28 mark. Like Calgary, the Canucks draw about an average amount of penalties, but they’re significantly less disciplined. The Canucks took 68 more penalties this season than Calgary, meaning that we can expect the Flames to see more favourable special teams time over the course of this series.

It’s also possible that Calgary’s outside speed and shiftiness courtesy of guys like Johnny Gaudreau, Paul Byron, and Mason Raymond could give Vancouver’s slow-footed defense fits and extend this edge further. Sean Monahan, Lance Bouma, and Josh Jooris also have been proficient at drawing more penalties than they take, while Vancouver’s Alex Edler, Kevin Bieksa, and Ryan Stanton in particular have struggled with staying away from minor penalties.

Despite differing success in the regular season, underlying metrics suggest that Vancouver and Calgary are pretty similar on both the powerplay and penalty kill. The Canucks had great success while a man short thanks to strong shot suppression and good goaltending, though their once elite ability to limit shots and chances while down a man has atrophied significantly in the absence of Brad Richardson. Richardson may return for the start of the series, but who knows how effective he’ll be after missing a large portion of the season.

The Flames 20th-ranked PK unit was significantly less successful than the 2nd-ranked Canucks were, but this wasn’t for lack of strong play while a man short. The Flames PK is likely better than its record indicates, as Kris Russel and Dennis Wideman have been excellent at limiting shots while a man short. Fast Paul Byron and Josh Jooris have also seen some very nice success at preventing shots while down a man.

Both powerplay units are fairly similar too, and there’s just half of one percentage point separating the two in conversion rate. Vancouver has seen a recent upturn in success though with Yannick Weber recently moving to the first unit to give the Sedins a one-timer option at the top of the umbrella, though they’ve struggled to generate consistent chances at points this season. Dennis Wideman has been the largest contributor to the Flames powerplay this year, leading all D in this series with 21 PP points on the year.

With Ryan Miller just returning from a fairly serious knee injury, the ball looks like it’s Eddie Lack’s to run with. Lack has been fantastic for the Canucks in Miller’s absence, finishing the year with a 0.921 save percentage, good for T-12th in the NHL. His even strength and high-danger numbers have left a little something to be desired though, as Lack has been below average in both of those measures. He’s been absolutely unbeatable from the outside and high slot this season, and hasn’t allowed very many soft goals.

For Calgary, Jonas Hiller will likely get the call. He was absolutely fantastic in his two appearances in the regular season against the Canucks, and has a very strong 0.927 save percentage at even strength this season – the best number among all goalies in this series. Hiller has struggled while down a man this season, which is likely the largest reason for Calgary having the 20th ranked penalty kill rather than one hovering around the top-10. His 0.827 save percentage while on the penalty kill is the second worst among all NHL goalies that have spent 100 minutes or more shorthanded this season.

While Lack’s been strong for the Canucks this season, the Flames likely have a tiny edge in goaltending due to Hiller’s strong 5-on-5 play. Whether or not this actually means something is anyone’s guess though – the margins between “elite” and “doesn’t belong in the NHL” are tiny as it is, so expecting one guy to significantly out-play another pretty similar one is generally a poor bet. Really, the goaltending match-up is entirely up in the air.

Neither the Canucks or Flames are a particularly good team, and both struggle immensely at even strength. But at the same time, both bring a legitimate special teams fastball to the table that keeps them in hockey games, and drives a good overall goal differential. When you see a team as bad as Calgary make the playoffs, usually the smart money is to bet against them 100% of the time, but Vancouver is the other most vulnerable team in the West, so it’s a lot closer than what many Canucks fans want to believe.

Calgary has worked exceptionally hard under Bob Hartley this season, but it would be a crime to suggest they just want it more than Vancouver’s veteran core that’s previously oh so close to the ultimate prize, and is motivated as hell by their window rapidly closing on them. These guys are professionals. They’re all going to work their guts out, and they all desperately want to win.

Ultimately, Calgary’s young core just isn’t ready to beat Vancouver’s playoff-hardened veterans yet, especially with no Mark Giordano in the lineup. Their underlying numbers this season suggest they’re not yet a legitimate playoff contender, and have a long ways to go to get there. With guys like Sam Bennett in the future though that time will come.

With a strong performance at even strength led by the Sedin twins, the Canucks will survive an early scare and take the series in a hard fought six games. It’ll be tense and intense, and the margins for error will be tiny. And hey, since these are the playoffs, anything could happen.