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Snap Shots: The Canucks are 10-0-0 when they are Outshot at Home

The idea of these “Snap Shots” articles is to explore some smaller ideas or stats that I find. In the process of looking through stats, one number sticks out to such an absurd degree that it merits an article all on it’s own. This is one of those times.

The Canucks have won every game this season where they have been outshot at home. They are 10-0-0 in those games.

It all started back in October when the Canucks beat the LA Kings 8-2 despite being outshot 39-25. It’s a trend that’s continued throughout the year, even in cases when they’ve been outshot by nearly 2-1. On December 28th, once again against the LA Kings, they were outshot 51-26, but were able to sneak out with a 3-2 win.

Jacob Markstrom has been excellent at home this season. He is likely the reason why the Canucks have been able to come out on top on so many of these games where they have been outshot at home. He’s gotten the start in eight of the ten victories.

The goaltenders have been excellent in these 10 wins at home. Markstrom has faced 303 shots in his eight games and he boasts a 0.953 save percentage. Markstrom was also two for three in the shootout during these wins. Thatcher Demko is playing well in these games too. He has faced 79 shots in two games and has a 0.936 save percentage.

The players have been getting pretty lucky throughout those 10 games. They have scored 40 goals in this run of games and have a shooting percentage just over 15%.

The Canucks have been excellent at home this season, but what’s really odd is that even if you go back three years, the Canucks have traditionally won a lot of games at home when they are outshot. Since the 2016-17 season the Canucks are 43-27-12.

Date Opponent Shots (Canucks-Opponent) Score Goalie
October 9th Los Angeles Kings 25-39 8-2 W Markstrom
October 12th Philadelphia Flyers 24-32 3-2 W(SO) Markstrom
November 12 Nashville Predators 26-37 5-3 W Demko
December 3rd Ottawa Senators 29-42 5-2 W Demko
December 12th Carolina Hurricanes 26-43 1-0 W(OT) Markstrom
December 19th Vegas Golden Knights 34-43 5-4 W(OT) Markstrom
December 21st Pittsburgh Penguins 14-29 4-1 W Markstrom
December 23rd Edmonton Oilers 28-29 4-2 W Markstrom
December 28th Los Angeles Kings 26-51 3-2 W Markstrom
January 4th New York Rangers 27-37 2-1 W Markstrom

The shots aren’t even close like you can probably see from the table above. In those 10 games the Canucks have only controlled 40.4% of the all strengths shot share. They have been outshot 382-259 in those games. The goaltenders and high shooting percentage has won them these games.

Another interesting fact about this weird stretch of 10 games is that the Canucks have 31 even strength goals over that sample. If they were to average 3.1 even strength goals per game they would be an absolute horse in the western conference. The remaining nine goals have come on the power play.

It remains to be seen whether it’s been a fluke or if there’s something about Green’s system that allows them to repeatedly win games despite losing the shot battle, but it’s an interesting tidbit nonetheless.

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