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2018 NHL Draft Preliminary Rankings: Top 50

After going through the top 15 prospects in some level of detail, I’ve compiled a list of those previously covered as well as another 35 to make up a preliminary top 50 for next years draft. Remember, if you see someone high on the list below and you want some more details on them, you can find in-depth coverage of the first 15 players in the following articles:

2018 NHL Draft Preliminary Rankings: 1 to 5

2018 NHL Draft Preliminary Rankings: 6 to 10

2018 NHL Draft Preliminary Rankings: 11 to 15

I said this already in the 1 to 5 post, but I’ll note again that this list is my own, and not a consolidation of either other members of the network (as our Draft Profile series was) or industry rankings. Anything that you find utterly ridiculous about the arrangement of prospects can be blamed solely on me.

A Rundown of the Stats Used In These Articles

If you’ve already read this in the previous articles, you can go ahead and skip this section.

You can get draft lists from a myriad of sources, but since you came to Canucks Army, you can expect somewhat of a statistical lean. There will be video and some scouting reports as well, but much ink will be spilled on stats, as we have metrics here that you won’t find anywhere else. What follows is a brief description of each of the stats referenced in the tables below.

  • Age: Exact age to two decimal points, calculated as of September 15th, 2016. That date is used for draft purposes – anyone with an exact age greater than or equal to 16.00 and less than 17.00 as of that date will be eligible for the first time at the 2018 draft.
  • Box Cars: GP, G, A, P stand for the standard Games Played, Goals, Assists, and Points, during the 2016-17 regular season.
  • Sh/GP: Shots on goal per games played.
  • GF%: Percentage of 5-on-5 on-ice goals scored in favour of the player’s team.
  • GF%rel: The difference between the player’s on-ice GF% relative to the team’s GF% when the player is off the ice.
  • pGPS:
    • xSucc is Expected Success Rate for the player, based on how many similar players reached a 200 NHL game threshold, weighted by similarity.
    • xPro/82 is the Expected Production of the player per 82 games, based on how similar players produced in the NHL, weighted by similarity.
    • xVal is Expected Value, the product of xSucc and xPro/82. Check this article to see an Expected Value curve from last year’s draft to get an idea of what constitutes a “good” xVal. Last year the expected values in the first round ranged from about 35 to 15.
  • SEAL: The SEAL adjusted scoring value. SEAL stands for Situational, Era, Age, and League. Here’s a rundown of the current iteration of SEAL, which evolved from a technique that Garret Hohl pioneered for the 2015 draft.

Certain metrics are only available for certain leagues, depending on how easily available the data is to the public, and in some cases whether or not Dylan Kirkby (our resident programmer) and I have had the time to set up the necessary data scrapers. Here’s a run down on which metrics are available in which leagues.

  • pGPS: I can run pGPS data on about 20 leagues right now, so at the top of the draft, it’s easier just to say which leagues it doesn’t do. For the purposes of this list, the missing leagues are: the MHL (Russian Junior), SM-Liiga Nuorten (Finnish Junior).
  • SEAL: SEAL adjustments are currently available for all CHL leagues (WHL, OHL, QMJHL), USHL, NCAA, SHL, and Czech Extraliga. Dependent on availability of situational scoring data.
  • GF% and GF%rel: Currently available for all CHL leagues (WHL, OHL, QMJHL), USHL, SHL, and Czech Extraliga.

Without any further ado, here is the top 50 list.

The 2018 NHL Entry Draft Preliminary Top 50

Rank Player Pos Age Height Nat. League GP G A P Sh/GP GF% GF%rel pGPS xSucc xPro/ 82 pGPS xVal SEAL
1 Rasmus Dahlin D 16.42 6.01 SWE Superelit 24 9 13 22 4.58 100% 78 77.7 0.692
2 Andrei Svechnikov RW 16.47 6.02 RUS USHL 44 26 27 53 3.31 70.1% +16.8% 100% 73 73.0 1.356
3 Joseph Veleno C 16.67 6.00 CAN QMJHL 45 13 27 40 2.38 57.7% -3.6% 25% 55 13.8 0.942
4 Ryan Merkley D 16.09 5.11 CAN OHL 62 12 43 55 2.50 38.1% -2.4% 91% 33 29.6 1.053
5 Filip Zadina LW 16.80 6.00 CZE Czech 25 1 1 2 0.72  23.5% 25% 44 11.3 0.246
6 Brady Tkachuk C 17.00 6.02 USA USHL 22 11 10 21 3.50 57.6% +14.5% 38% 44 16.8 0.870
7 Quinton Hughes D 16.92 5.09 USA USHL 24 4 20 24 1.65 52.1% +8.8% 0% 0 0.0 1.165
8 Anderson MacDonald LW 16.33 6.02 CAN QMJHL 50 29 12 41 3.00 40.0% -1.2% 48% 47 22.4 0.971
9 Adam Boqvist D 16.09 5.10 SWE Superelit 18 4 12 16 2.28 74% 78 57.6
10 Isac Lundestrom C/LW 16.86 6.00 SWE SHL 45 3 3 6 0.31  38.1%  -12.2% 73% 56 40.9 0.571
Rank Player Pos Age Height Nat. League GP G A P Sh/GP GF% GF%rel pGPS xSucc xPro/ 82 pGPS xVal SEAL
11 Jared McIsaac D 16.47 6.02 CAN QMJHL 59 4 28 32 1.83 60.0% +12.7% 35% 26 9.0 0.484
12 Ryan McLeod C 16.99 6.02 CAN OHL 68 9 33 42 1.63 57.5% +4.7% 21% 38 7.8 0.772
13 Akil Thomas C 16.70 5.11 USA OHL 61 21 27 48 2.39 40.5% -7.4% 29% 50 14.8 0.981
14 Evan Bouchard D 16.91 6.02 CAN OHL 68 11 33 44 1.99 58.7% -4.3% 41% 37 15.3 0.694
15 Joel Farabee LW 16.56 5.11 USA USHL 28 12 11 23 1.73 54.5% +11.0% 0% 35 0.0 0.894
16 Allan McShane C 16.59 5.11 CAN OHL 62 17 27 44 1.87 58.5% +3.3% 26% 46 12.0 0.896
17 Bode Wilde D 16.64 6.02 CAN USHL 29 3 3 6 1.59 31.1% -16.5% 10% 23 2.2 0.217
18 Alexander Khovanov C 16.43 5.11 RUS MHL 29 8 14 22
19 Jakub Lauko F 16.47 6.01 CZE Czech 28 2 0 2 0.61 34% 44 14.8 0.240
20 David Levin LW/RW 17.00 5.10 ISR OHL 66 18 35 53 2.15 42.9% -4.3% 22% 43 9.4 0.954
Rank Player Pos Age Height Nat. League GP G A P Sh/GP GF% GF%rel pGPS xSucc xPro/ 82 pGPS xVal SEAL
21 Jack McBain C 16.69 6.03 CAN OJHL 42 13 28 41
22 Jett Woo D 16.14 6.00 CAN WHL 65 5 17 22 54.9% +1.3% 21% 25 5.2 0.396
23 Adam Ginning D 16.67 6.03 SWE Superelit 29 0 10 10 1.83 6% 29 1.7 0.613
24 Santeri Salmela D 16.27 6.01 FIN Liiga 9 0 3 3 0.89 0% 0 0.0
25 Ty Smith D 16.48 5.11 CAN WHL 66 5 27 32 47.6% +0.9% 26% 28 7.3 0.542
26 Jesse Ylonen RW 16.95 6.00 FIN Jr. A Liiga 37 15 16 31
27 Oliver Wahlstrom C 16.26 6.01 USA USHL 27 7 4 11 2.38 37.5% -8.6% 8% 66 5.1 0.535
28 Calen Addison D 16.43 5.09 CAN WHL 63 9 24 33 58.3% +8.6% 30% 29 8.7 0.550
29 Alexander Alexeyev D 16.84 6.03 RUS WHL 41 4 17 21 57.1% +7.1% 36% 24 8.7 0.560
30 Nathan Dunkley C 16.37 5.11 CAN OHL 58 6 25 31 1.40 42.4% -5.2% 20% 37 7.4 0.722
Rank Player Pos Age Height Nat. League GP G A P Sh/GP GF% GF%rel pGPS xSucc xPro/ 82 pGPS xVal SEAL
31 Riley Sutter RW 16.89 6.02 CAN WHL 67 20 18 38 60.0% +2.5% 19% 38 7.3 0.567
32 Gabriel Fortier LW 16.61 5.09 CAN QMJHL 25 11 6 17 2.20 50.0% -0.7% 11% 48 5.4 0.740
33 Xavier Bouchard D 16.55 6.02 CAN QMJHL 63 4 30 34 1.00 51.6% +1.6% 30% 27 7.9 0.495
34 Mattias Samuelsson D 16.51 6.03 USA USHL 26 4 4 8 1.33 51.2% +7.5% 17% 22 3.8 0.413
35 Jesperi Kotkaniemi C 16.20 6.02 FIN Jr. A Liiga 17 9 6 15
36 Benoit-Olivier Groulx C 16.61 6.01 CAN QMJHL 62 17 14 31 1.76 41.0% -12.5% 7% 39 2.7 0.510
37 Kirill Nizhnikov RW 16.47 6.01 RUS OHL 43 12 7 19 2.56 27.1% -15.4% 26% 38 9.8 0.596
38 Jacob Olofsson C 16.60 6.02 SWE Superelit 29 4 12 16 1.79 16% 39 6.2
39 Grigori Denisenko LW 16.28 5.11 RUS MHL 28 9 13 22
40 Rasmus Kupari C 16.50 6.01 FIN Jr. A Liiga 22 4 10 14
Rank Player Pos Age Height Nat. League GP G A P Sh/GP GF% GF%rel pGPS xSucc xPro/ 82 pGPS xVal SEAL
41 Ty Dellandrea C 16.15 6.01 CAN OHL 57 13 11 24 1.81 44.8% -6.0% 21% 35 7.4 0.557
42 Krystof Hrabik F 16.98 6.03 CZE Czech 13 0 1 1 0.77 30% 61 18.5 0.308
43 Oliver Castleman LW/RW 17.00 5.10 CAN OHL 66 18 22 40 0.815
44 Filip Hallander C/W 16.21 5.12 SWE Superelit 34 9 15 24 20% 41 8.5
45 Philipp Kurashev LW/C 16.93 5.12 SUI QMJHL 65 21 33 54 2.52 47.4% +10.1% 15% 55 8.0 0.941
46 Serron Noel RW 16.10 6.03 CAN OHL 63 8 13 21 1.10 47.8% -0.1% 20% 35 6.9 0.489
47 Luka Burzan C 16.69 6.00 CAN WHL 66 14 13 27 57.4% +4.2% 13% 39 4.9 0.503
48 Nicolas Beaudin D 16.94 5.10 CAN QMJHL 64 5 36 41 1.91 44.4% +3.0% 21% 30 6.5 0.553
49 Giovanni Vallati D 16.57 6.01 CAN OHL 59 5 16 21 1.12 56.2% +11.9% 17% 26 4.4 0.394
50 Filip Kral D 16.91 5.11 CZE Czech2 12 1 1 2 0.48 13% 24 3.2 0.295

 

  • Sami Ohlund

    You have Jett Woo at 22 and Ryan Merkley at 4 – HockeyProspect.com has it flipped – Merkley at 22 and Woo at 6. Woo is almost too young for the upcoming draft, bigger but with less offense so far. How do you compare these two players?
    I just think having someone named Jett Woo on your team has to make you better.